L. Willemen

From land cover change to land function dynamics: A major challenge to improve land characterization

Land cover change has always had a central role in land change science. This central role is largely the result of the possibilities to map and characterize land cover based on observations and remote sensing. This paper argues that more attention should be given to land use and land functions and linkages between these. Consideration of land functions that provide a wide range of goods and services makes more integrated assessments of land change possible. The increasing attention to multifunctional land use is another incentive to develop methods to assess changes in land functions. A number of methods to quantify and map the spatial extent of land use and land functions are discussed and the implications for modeling are identified based on recent model approaches in land change science. The mixed use of land cover, land use and land function in maps and models leads to inconsistencies in land change assessments. Explicit attention to the non-linear relations between land cover, land use and land function is essential to consistently address land change. New methods to map and quantify land function dynamics will enhance our ability to understand and model land system change and adequately inform policies and planning.

Indicators for mapping ecosystem services: a review

Ecosystem services are the benefits that humans derive from ecosystems, such as food provisioning, water regulating and provisioning, soil productivity, and use of natural areas for recreation. The current challenge is to mainstream ecosystem services into policies and practices in order to ensure the continuous provision of these benefits to humans. The European Union has adopted an EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2020 in which the target of safeguarding ecosystem services is explicitly included. One crucial step to account for ecosystem services is the spatial quantification of the service supply. To this end, the development of robust indicators is needed. In this report we give an overview of spatial information used for mapping and modelling ecosystem services according to the scientific literature and evaluate the potential contribution of the JRC in supporting such initiatives at global, continental, and national level. We found a large diversity of indicators used for mapping different ecosystem services. The most common indicators are based on data related to land use/cover, soils, vegetation, and nutrients. Most of these data are available in and outside the JRC to a large extent and at low resolution. The JRC holds 82% of the data types used to map ecosystem services and could support the Member States and other initiatives involved by directly providing spatial information.

A multi - scale modelling approach for analysing landscape service dynamics

Shifting societal needs drive and shape landscapes and the provision of their services. This paper presents a modelling approach to visualize the regional spatial and temporal dynamics in landscape service supply as a function of changing landscapes and societal demand. This changing demand can result from different policy targets. In this paper we conceptualise the system in which these dynamics take place by explicitly addressing (i) the multifunctional character of a landscape, (ii) the different spatial levels at which interactions between landscape service supply, demand, and land management occur, and (iii) trade-offs in service supply as a result of land management actions. Next, we translate the resulting conceptual framework into an operational model. As a demonstration, this model is applied to simulate changes in landscape service supply driven by regional policies in a rural region of the Netherlands. This application demonstrates potential trade-offs, which emerge in a spatially explicit way in the region over time. It illustrates the potential relevance of modelling landscape service dynamics for environmental management and decision making.

Ecosystem Services at the Landscape Scale: the Need for Integrative Approaches

During the symposium “Ecosystem Services at the Landscape Scale” from the EU-IALE conference 2009, several challenges for future research on approaches to use the concept of ecosystem services at the landscape scale were identified, focussing on the need for integration. Three main research directions were discussed, (i) the definition of the potentials and limitations of the ecosystem service approach for landscape analysis, (ii) the identification of suitable methods and tools to apply the ecosystem service approach at the landscape scale and (iii) the demand of incorporating ecosystem and landscape services in decision making and management. This paper briefly addresses and discusses some of these topics and puts them into a broader perspective. From this viewpoint it becomes obvious that many high-quality sectoral studies are carried out, e.g. concentrating on specific services or specific linkages within the “ecosystem service cascade” which describes the relation between biophysical characteristics of the landscape, their functions, services, benefits and values for society. In order to provide useful information for decision makers, ecosystem services studies should be supplemented by investigations of the whole systems of interactions between ecological processes and societal valuations.

Using Social Media to Measure the Contribution of Red List Species to the Nature-Based Tourism Potential of African Protected Areas.

Cultural ecosystem services are defined by people’s perception of the environment, which make them hard to quantify systematically. Methods to describe cultural benefits from ecosystems typically include resource-demanding survey techniques, which are not suitable to assess cultural ecosystem services for large areas. In this paper we explore a method to quantify cultural benefits through the enjoyment of natured-based tourism, by assessing the potential tourism attractiveness of species for each protected area in Africa using the IUCN’s Red List of Threatened Species. We use the number of pictures of wildlife posted on a photo sharing website as a proxy for charisma, popularity, and ease of observation, as these factors combined are assumed to determine how attractive species are for the global wildlife tourist. Based on photo counts of 2473 African animals and plants, species that seem most attractive to nature-based tourism are the Lion, African Elephant and Leopard. Combining the photo counts with species range data, African protected areas with the highest potential to attract wildlife tourists based on attractive species occurrence were Samburu National Reserve in Kenya, Mukogodo Forest Reserve located just north of Mount Kenya, and Addo Elephant National Park in South-Africa. The proposed method requires only three data sources which are freely accessible and available online, which could make the proposed index tractable for large scale quantitative ecosystem service assessments. The index directly links species presence to the tourism potential of protected areas, making the connection between nature and human benefits explicit, but excludes other important contributing factors for tourism, such as accessibility and safety. This social media based index provides a broad understanding of those species that are popular globally; in many cases these are not the species of highest conservation concern.

Landscape level analysis of the spatial and temporal complexity of land - use change

For understanding the causes and effects of changes in land use it is critical to study the interaction between the temporal dynamics and the spatial pattern of land use. Interactions arise from feedbacks in the human-environment system, heterogeneity in the biophysical and human environment and the influence of land-use history. Land-use simulation models can serve as a tool to understand these dynamics in more detail and assess the impact on ecosystem functioning. This chapter presents a spatially explicit modelling approach to explore the spatial and temporal changes in land-use patterns as a function of the specific characteristics of cropping systems and feedbacks between land use and the environment. A case study for Bac Kan province in northern Vietnam is used to test and illustrate the capacity of the model. The results indicate that the model can be used to assess changes in land-use pressure and pattern under different development pathways or scenario conditions. The potential of further developing this approach is discussed.

Ecoagriculture : integrated landscape management for people, food, and nature

Ecoagriculture is an approach to managing landscapes for the simultaneous and synergistic achievement of three sets of outcomes: maintaining, increasing, or improving agricultural production; promoting biodiversity and ecosystem services; and enhancing human livelihoods and well-being. These elements are stitched together by institutions that support multistakeholder collaboration to achieve these outcomes. Key elements of the approach include: agreed landscape objectives; identification of synergies and trade-offs; land use practices that contribute to multiple objectives; markets, policies, and programs that encourage synergies and reduce trade-offs; and institutions that enable collaborative planning, implementation, and monitoring among stakeholders.

Encuesta sobre la conservación y el uso de los recursos genéticos forestales en América Latina

Survey on the conservation and use of forest genetic resources in Latin America In order to understand the state of conservation and use of forest genetic resources in Latin America, an on-line survey of forestry personnel and organizations was conducted in 2006. Most respondents work on forestry, agroforestry and human-resource development, at national government organizations and universities. Research is local and focuses on developing agroforestry systems and on production and propagation trials. The top problems identified are the lack of funds, policies and recognition of the importance of forest genetic resources. According to the respondents, it is necessary to set priorities for work, define species of common interest, and work collaboratively to optimize resources. Professionals also lack information resources and mechanisms to communicate with peers, and recommended the creation of a regional network of specialists.

Machine Learning Using Hyperspectral Data Inaccurately Predicts Plant Traits Under Spatial Dependency

Spectral, temporal and spatial dimensions are difficult to model together when predicting in situ plant traits from remote sensing data. Therefore, machine learning algorithms solely based on spectral dimensions are often used as predictors, even when there is a strong effect of spatial or temporal autocorrelation in the data. A significant reduction in prediction accuracy is expected when algorithms are trained using a sequence in space or time that is unlikely to be observed again. The ensuing inability to generalise creates a necessity for ground-truth data for every new area or period, provoking the propagation of “single-use” models. This study assesses the impact of spatial autocorrelation on the generalisation of plant trait models predicted with hyperspectral data. Leaf Area Index (LAI) data generated at increasing levels of spatial dependency are used to simulate hyperspectral data using Radiative Transfer Models. Machine learning regressions to predict LAI at different levels of spatial dependency are then tuned (determining the optimum model complexity) using cross-validation as well as the NOIS method. The results show that cross-validated prediction accuracy tends to be overestimated when spatial structures present in the training data are fitted (or learned) by the model.

Linking planetary boundaries and ecosystem accounting, with an illustration for the Colombian Orinoco river basin

Economic development has increased pressures on natural resources during the last decades. The concept of planetary boundaries has been developed to propose limits on human activities based on earth processes and ecological thresholds. However, this concept was not developed to downscale planetary boundaries to sub-global level. The absence of boundaries at sub-global levels constrains the use of the concept in environmental governance and natural resource management, because decisions are typically taken at these levels. Decisions at the national level are currently supported, among others, by statistical frameworks in particular the System of National Accounts. However, statistical frameworks were not developed to compile environmental information, hindering environmental decision making. Our study examines if and how ecosystem accounting can be used in combination with the concept of planetary boundaries in guiding human activities at the level of a river basin. We assess the applicability of both frameworks for natural resource management in the Orinoco river basin, based on adaptive management components. Our analysis indicates that differences in the purpose of analysis, information provided, and methods constrain the potential integration of both frameworks. Nevertheless, the way both frameworks conceptualize the social system and the interactions between social and ecological systems can facilitate translating planetary boundaries into indicators considered in ecosystem accounting. The information recorded in national ecosystem accounts can support establishing ecological thresholds and, more fundamentally, to relate ecological thresholds to human impacts on ecosystem condition. Capitalizing on these synergies requires further exchange of experiences between the communities working on ecosystem accounting and planetary boundaries.