Lai-Yung R. Leung

Microphysical effects determine macrophysical response for aerosol impacts on deep convective clouds

Significance Deep convective clouds (DCCs) play a key role in atmospheric circulation and the hydrological and energy cycle. How aerosol particles affect DCCs is poorly understood, making it difficult to understand current and future weather and climate. Our work showed that in addition to the invigoration of convection, which has been unanimously cited for explaining the observed results, the microphysical effects induced by aerosols are a fundamental reason for the observed increases in cloud fraction, cloud top height, and cloud thickness in the polluted environment, even when invigoration is absent. The finding calls for an augmented focus on understanding the changes in stratiform/anvils associated with convective life cycle. Deep convective clouds (DCCs) play a crucial role in the general circulation, energy, and hydrological cycle of our climate system. Aerosol particles can influence DCCs by altering cloud properties, precipitation regimes, and radiation balance. Previous studies reported both invigoration and suppression of DCCs by aerosols, but few were concerned with the whole life cycle of DCC. By conducting multiple monthlong cloud-resolving simulations with spectral-bin cloud microphysics that capture the observed macrophysical and microphysical properties of summer convective clouds and precipitation in the tropics and midlatitudes, this study provides a comprehensive view of how aerosols affect cloud cover, cloud top height, and radiative forcing. We found that although the widely accepted theory of DCC invigoration due to aerosol’s thermodynamic effect (additional latent heat release from freezing of greater amount of cloud water) may work during the growing stage, it is microphysical effect influenced by aerosols that drives the dramatic increase in cloud cover, cloud top height, and cloud thickness at the mature and dissipation stages by inducing larger amounts of smaller but longer-lasting ice particles in the stratiform/anvils of DCCs, even when thermodynamic invigoration of convection is absent. The thermodynamic invigoration effect contributes up to ∼27% of total increase in cloud cover. The overall aerosol indirect effect is an atmospheric radiative warming (3–5 W⋅m−2) and a surface cooling (−5 to −8 W⋅m−2). The modeling findings are confirmed by the analyses of ample measurements made at three sites of distinctly different environments.

Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification

Improving a tropical cyclone’s forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone’s path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are “quasi-permanent” features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

Application of a subgrid orographic precipitation/surface hydrology scheme to a mountain watershed

A regional climate model including a physically based parameterization of the subgrid effects of topography on clouds and precipitation is driven by observed meteorology on its lateral boundaries for a period of 12 months. The meteorology simulated by the model for each subgrid elevation class is distributed across a mountain watershed according to the surface elevation within the watershed. The simulated meteorology is used to drive a detailed model of hydrology-vegetation dynamics at the topographic scale described by digital elevation data, 180 m. The watershed model, which includes a two-layer canopy model for evapotranspiration, an energy-balance model for snow accumulation and melt, a two-layer rooting zone model, and a quasi-three-dimensional saturated subsurface flow model, is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of the accumulation and melt of snow and the accumulation and discharge of surface water within a mountain watershed in northwestern Montana. Comparisons between the simulated and the recorded snow cover and river discharge at the base of the watershed indicate comparable if not better agreement than between the recorded fields and those simulated by the watershed model driven by meteorology observed at two stations within the watershed. The agreement with the recorded discharge, precipitation, and snow water equivalent is also clearly superior to simulations driven by the regional climate model run without the subgrid parameterization but with one-third the grid size of the simulation with the subgrid parameterization.

A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface water and groundwater resources under a changing climate

This study investigates the effects of irrigation on global water resources by performing and analyzing Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) simulations driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs). For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were performed: (1) a CTRL experiment in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an IRRIG experiment in which the irrigation module is activated using surface water (SW) to feed irrigation; and (3) a PUMP experiment in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated for conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater (GW) for irrigation. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping are calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based water use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major effects: SW (GW) depletion in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW (GW), respectively. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions, suggesting increased vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century, combined effect of increased irrigation water demand and amplified temporal-spatial variability of water supply may lead to severe local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate/alleviate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although such effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our study highlights the need to account for irrigation effects and sources in assessing regional climate change impacts.