Laila J. Tata

Incidence and mortality of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and sarcoidosis in the UK

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and sarcoidosis are common diagnoses in patients attending chest clinics, but little is known about the epidemiology of these diseases. We used data from a general practice database to provide information on the current incidence of IPF and sarcoidosis in the UK. Methods: Data were extracted for all patients with a diagnosis of IPF or sarcoidosis between 1991 and 2003. The whole population of the database was used to calculate disease incidence stratified by age, sex, region, and time period. Poisson regression was used to compare the incidence between populations and Cox regression was used to compare survival between populations. Results: 920 cases of IPF (mean age 71 years, 62% male) and 1019 cases of sarcoidosis (mean age 47 years, 47% male) were identified. The overall incidence rate per 100 000 person-years was 4.6 for IPF and 5.0 for sarcoidosis. The incidence of IPF increased progressively between 1991 and 2003 (p<0.00001), and was highest in Northern England and Scotland (p<0.0001). The survival of patients with IPF was stable over time. In contrast, the incidence of sarcoidosis was highest in London, West Midlands and Northern Ireland and remained stable over time. Conclusions: The incidence of IPF has more than doubled between 1990 and 2003; this is not due to the ageing of the UK population or an increased ascertainment of milder cases. The incidence of sarcoidosis has not changed during this time period. Our findings suggest that more than 4000 new cases of IPF and 3000 new cases of sarcoidosis are currently diagnosed each year in the UK.

General population based study of the impact of tricyclic and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressants on the risk of acute myocardial infarction

Objective: To investigate the impact of tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) on the risk of first acute myocardial infarction (MI). Design: Case–control analysis and a self controlled case series. Setting: 644 general practices throughout England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Patients: Over 60 000 cases of MI and 360 000 age, sex, and practice matched controls randomly selected from the UK General Practice Research Database. Main outcome measures: Matched odds ratios and incidence rate ratios estimating whether there is an acute or prolonged increased risk of MI after exposure to TCA and SSRI drugs and individual drugs within these families. Results: Case–control analysis found an initial increased risk of MI after TCA exposure (for example, at 1–7 days after the first dothiepin prescription: odds ratio (OR) 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15 to 3.14) or SSRI exposure (for example, at 1–7 days after first fluoxetine prescription: OR 2.59, 95% CI 1.44 to 4.66). In the self controlled analysis the equivalent risk estimates were an incidence rate ratio of 1.43, 95% CI 0.92 to 2.22 for dothiepin and an incidence rate ratio of 1.66, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.71 for fluoxetine. Conclusions: Antidepressant prescriptions are associated with an increased risk of MI. The size of these effects is similar for TCA and SSRI exposures; however, the lack of specificity between types of antidepressants and the lower risks found in the self controlled analysis suggest that these associations are more likely due to factors relating to underlying depression and health services utilisation than to specific adverse drug effects.

Incidence and Prevalence of Celiac Disease and Dermatitis Herpetiformis in the UK Over Two Decades: Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVES:Few studies have quantified the incidence and prevalence of celiac disease (CD) and dermatitis herpetiformis (DH) nationally and regionally by time and age groups. Understanding this epidemiology is crucial for hypothesizing about causes and quantifying the burden of disease.METHODS:Patients with CD or DH were identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1990 and 2011. Incidence rates and prevalence were calculated by age, sex, year, and region of residence. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) adjusted for age, sex, and region were calculated with Poisson regression.RESULTS:A total of 9,087 incident cases of CD and 809 incident cases of DH were identified. Between 1990 and 2011, the incidence rate of CD increased from 5.2 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI), 3.8–6.8) to 19.1 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 17.8–20.5; IRR, 3.6; 95% CI, 2.7–4.8). The incidence of DH decreased over the same time period from 1.8 per 100,000 to 0.8 per 100,000 person-years (average annual IRR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.94–0.97). The absolute incidence of CD per 100,000 person-years ranged from 22.3 in Northern Ireland to 10 in London. There were large regional variations in prevalence for CD but not DH.CONCLUSIONS:We found a fourfold increase in the incidence of CD in the United Kingdom over 22 years, with large regional variations in prevalence. This contrasted with a 4% annual decrease in the incidence of DH, with minimal regional variations in prevalence. These contrasts could reflect differences in diagnosis between CD (serological diagnosis and case finding) and DH (symptomatic presentation) or the possibility that diagnosing and treating CD prevents the development of DH.

Risk factors for first venous thromboembolism around pregnancy: a population-based cohort study from the United Kingdom

Knowledge of the absolute risk (AR) for venous thromboembolism (VTE) in women around pregnancy and how potential risk factors modify this risk is crucial in identifying women who would benefit most from thromboprophylaxis. We examined a large primary care database containing 376 154 pregnancies ending in live birth or stillbirth from women aged 15 to 44 years between 1995 and 2009 and assessed the effect of risk factors on the incidence of antepartum and postpartum VTE in terms of ARs and incidence rate ratios (IRR), using Poisson regression. During antepartum, varicose veins, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), urinary tract infection, and preexisting diabetes were associated with an increased risk for VTE (ARs, ≥139/100 000 person-years; IRRs, ≥1.8/100 000 person-years). Postpartum, the strongest risk factor was stillbirth (AR, 2444/100 000 person-years; IRR, 6.2/100 000 person-years), followed by medical comorbidities (including varicose veins, IBD, or cardiac disease), a body mass index (BMI) of 30 kg/m(2) or higher, obstetric hemorrhage, preterm delivery, and caesarean section (ARs, ≥637/100 000 person-years; IRRs, ≥1.9/100 000 person-years). Our findings suggest that VTE risk varies modestly by recognized factors during antepartum; however, women with stillbirths, preterm births, obstetric hemorrhage, caesarean section delivery, medical comorbidities, or a BMI of 30 kg/m(2) or higher are at much higher risk for VTE after delivery. These risk factors should receive careful consideration when assessing the potential need for thromboprophylaxis during the postpartum period.

Does concurrent prescription of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs substantially increase the risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding?

Background:  A 15‐fold increased risk of gastrointestinal bleeding has been reported with concurrent use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and non‐steroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs. Recent guidance cautions against concurrent prescription, particularly in older people.

Use of Self-controlled Analytical Techniques to Assess the Association Between Use of Prescription Medications and the Risk of Motor Vehicle Crashes

Case-crossover and case-series analyses are 2 epidemiologic approaches that can be used to evaluate the association of exposures with acute events. Using a primary care database from the United Kingdom and these 2 statistical approaches, the authors investigated the impact of using benzodiazepines, nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics, beta-blockers, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, tricyclic antidepressants, opioids, and antihistamines on the risk of motor vehicle crashes in 1986-2004. For 49,821 individuals aged 18-74 years, involvement in a motor vehicle crash was documented. The outcome of the case-crossover analyses varied according to the choice of control period, so the case-series approach was preferred. The first 4 weeks of treatment with a combined acetaminophen and opioid preparation was associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle crash (incidence rate ratio = 2.06, 99% confidence interval: 1.84, 2.32), as was use of an opioid alone (incidence rate ratio = 1.70, 99% confidence interval: 1.39, 2.08) and benzodiazepines (incidence rate ratio = 1.94, 99% confidence interval: 1.62, 2.32). Use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, nonbenzodiazepine hypnotics, and antihistamines for more than 4 weeks was associated with motor vehicle crash, but shorter term use was not. The results obtained are broadly consistent with those from well-designed case-control studies and demonstrate how case-only techniques optimize the use of routinely collected data for epidemiologic studies.

Risk of first venous thromboembolism in and around pregnancy: a population‐based cohort study

Knowledge of the absolute and relative risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in and around pregnancy would be crucial in identifying when to commence and cease thromboprophylaxis in women who would benefit from such intervention. We addressed this hypothesis using a large prospective primary care database from the United Kingdom, containing details on 972 683 women aged 15–44 years between 1987 and 2004. Risks of a first VTE during antepartum, postpartum and outside of pregnancy were compared using Poisson regression. The rate of VTE during the third trimester antepartum was six times higher than time outside pregnancy [Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 6·1; 95% confidence interval, 4·7–7·9]. In contrast, both the first (IRR = 1·6) and second (IRR = 2·1) trimesters conferred little increase in risk. The first 6 weeks postpartum was associated with a 22‐fold increase in risk, with the peak occurring in the first 3 weeks. Increased age was found to be associated with VTE during postpartum and outside of pregnancy, but not during antepartum. Our findings of a notably raised risk of VTE persisting for 3 weeks postpartum and of a raised antepartum risk constrained to the third trimester have implications for modifying the current recommendations for VTE prophylaxis in pregnancy and the puerperium.

Early mortality after surgical resection for lung cancer: an analysis of the English National Lung cancer audit

Introduction For appropriately staged non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) surgical resection can dramatically improve survival, but some may not be offered this treatment because of concerns about perioperative mortality. Methods We used data from the National Lung Cancer Audit (NLCA) to determine the proportions of English patients who died within 30 and 90 days after surgery for NSCLC. We quantified the predictors of early postoperative death and using these results devised a score to predict risk of death within 90 days of surgery. Results We analysed data on 10 991 patients operated on between 2004 and 2010. Three per cent (334) of patients died within 30 days of their procedure and 5.9% (647) within 90 days. Age was strongly associated with early postoperative death (adjusted OR within 90 days for 80–84 years vs 70–74 years: 1.46, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.98); significant associations were also observed with performance status (PS) (adjusted OR within 90 days for PS 2 vs PS 0: 2.40, 95% CI 1.68 to 3.41), as well as lung function, stage and procedure type. Conclusions Our results show that age is the most important predictor of death within both of these early postoperative periods. We used the data in the NLCA to develop a predictive score, based on an English population and specific to lung cancer surgery, which estimates risk of death within 90 days; this score should be tested in future cohorts.

Effect of maternal asthma, exacerbations and asthma medication use on congenital malformations in offspring: a UK population-based study.

Background: Clinical advice to pregnant women with asthma is to maintain optimal therapeutic management; however, potential adverse effects of asthma treatments on fetal development remain uncertain. A study was undertaken to assess the association between maternal asthma and gestational exposure to asthma medications with risk of congenital malformation in offspring. Methods: A matched case-control study was performed using The Health Improvement Network primary care database. Children with malformations were matched to control children on birth year, general practice and singleton or twin delivery. Results: 5124 cases of liveborn children with major congenital malformations and 30 053 controls were included in the study. The risk of any malformation in children born to women with asthma was marginally higher than that in children born to women without asthma (adjusted OR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.20). However, no association was present in children born to mothers receiving asthma treatment in the year before or during pregnancy (OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.20). In assessing teratogenicity of medications, no increased risk of malformation was found with gestational exposures to short- or long-acting β agonists, inhaled corticosteroids, oral corticosteroids, other bronchodilators or cromones. These findings were similar for each of 11 system-specific malformation groups, except for an increase in musculo-skeletal system malformation associated with cromone exposure. Conclusions: Gestational exposure to commonly used asthma medications was found to be safe overall, although a moderate teratogenic risk of cromones cannot be excluded. There was some evidence of a small increased risk of congenital malformation in children born to women with asthma, but this was not explained by gestational exposure to asthma drugs.

Risk of first venous thromboembolism in and around pregnancy

Knowledge of the absolute and relative risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in and around pregnancy would be crucial in identifying when to commence and cease thromboprophylaxis in women who would benefit from such intervention. We addressed this hypothesis using a large prospective primary care database from the United Kingdom, containing details on 972 683 women aged 15–44 years between 1987 and 2004. Risks of a first VTE during antepartum, postpartum and outside of pregnancy were compared using Poisson regression. The rate of VTE during the third trimester antepartum was six times higher than time outside pregnancy [Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 6·1; 95% confidence interval, 4·7–7·9]. In contrast, both the first (IRR = 1·6) and second (IRR = 2·1) trimesters conferred little increase in risk. The first 6 weeks postpartum was associated with a 22‐fold increase in risk, with the peak occurring in the first 3 weeks. Increased age was found to be associated with VTE during postpartum and outside of pregnancy, but not during antepartum. Our findings of a notably raised risk of VTE persisting for 3 weeks postpartum and of a raised antepartum risk constrained to the third trimester have implications for modifying the current recommendations for VTE prophylaxis in pregnancy and the puerperium.