Lance W. Vail

A distributed hydrology‐vegetation model for complex terrain

A distributed hydrology-vegetation model is described that includes canopy interception, evaporation, transpiration, and snow accumulation and melt, as well as runoff generation via the saturation excess mechanisms. Digital elevation data are used to model topographic controls on incoming solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, and downslope water movement. Canopy evapotranspiration is represented via a two-layer Penman-Monteith formulation that incorporates local net solar radiation, surface meteorology, soil characteristics and moisture status, and species-dependent leaf area index and stomatal resistance. Snow accumulation and ablation are modeled using an energy balance approach that includes the effects of local topography and vegetation cover. Saturated subsurface flow is modeled using a quasi three-dimensional routing scheme. The model was applied at a 180-m scale to the Middle Fork Flathead River basin in northwestern Montana. This 2900-km2, snowmelt-dominated watershed ranges in elevation from 900 to over 3000 m. The model was calibrated using 2 years of recorded precipitation and streamflow. The model was verified against 2 additional years of runoff and against advanced very high resolution radiometer based spatial snow cover data at the 1-km2 scale. Simulated discharge showed acceptable agreement with observations. The simulated areal patterns of snow cover were in general agreement with the remote sensing observations, but were lagged slightly in time.

Possible Impacts of Global Warming on the Hydrology of the Ogallala Aquifer Region

The Ogallala or High Plains aquifer provides water for about 20% of the irrigated land in the United States. About 20 km3 (16.6 million acre-feet) of water are withdrawn annually from this aquifer. In general, recharge has not compensated for withdrawals since major irrigation development began in this region in the 1940s. The mining of the Ogallala has been pictured as an analogue to climate change in that many GCMs predict a warmer and drier future for this region. In this paper we attempt to anticipate the possible impacts of climate change on the sustainability of the aquifer as a source of water for irrigation and other purposes in the region. We have applied HUMUS, the Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. to the Missouri and Arkansas-White-Red water resource regions that overlie the Ogallala. We have imposed three general circulation model (GISS, UKTR and BMRC) projections of future climate change on this region and simulated the changes that may be induced in water yields (runoff plus lateral flow) and ground water recharge. Each GCM was applied to HUMUS at three levels of global mean temperature (GMT) to represent increasing severity of climate change (a surrogate for time). HUMUS was also run at three levels of atmospheric CO2 concentration (hereafter denoted by [CO2]) in order to estimate the impacts of direct CO2 effects on photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. Since the UKTR and GISS GCMs project increased precipitation in the Missouri basin, water yields increase there. The BMRC GCM predicts sharply decreased precipitation and, hence, reduced water yields. Precipitation reductions are even greater in the Arkansas basin under BMRC as are the consequent water yield losses. GISS and UKTR climates lead to only moderate yield losses in the Arkansas. CO2-fertilization reverses these losses and yields increase slightly. CO2 fertilization increases recharge in the base (no climate change) case in both basins. Recharge is reduced under all three GCMs and severities of climate change.

Application of a subgrid orographic precipitation/surface hydrology scheme to a mountain watershed

A regional climate model including a physically based parameterization of the subgrid effects of topography on clouds and precipitation is driven by observed meteorology on its lateral boundaries for a period of 12 months. The meteorology simulated by the model for each subgrid elevation class is distributed across a mountain watershed according to the surface elevation within the watershed. The simulated meteorology is used to drive a detailed model of hydrology-vegetation dynamics at the topographic scale described by digital elevation data, 180 m. The watershed model, which includes a two-layer canopy model for evapotranspiration, an energy-balance model for snow accumulation and melt, a two-layer rooting zone model, and a quasi-three-dimensional saturated subsurface flow model, is used to simulate the seasonal cycle of the accumulation and melt of snow and the accumulation and discharge of surface water within a mountain watershed in northwestern Montana. Comparisons between the simulated and the recorded snow cover and river discharge at the base of the watershed indicate comparable if not better agreement than between the recorded fields and those simulated by the watershed model driven by meteorology observed at two stations within the watershed. The agreement with the recorded discharge, precipitation, and snow water equivalent is also clearly superior to simulations driven by the regional climate model run without the subgrid parameterization but with one-third the grid size of the simulation with the subgrid parameterization.

Adaptive Management Platform for Natural Resources in the Columbia River Basin

Adaptive management is a systematic and rigorous scientifically defensible program of learning from the outcomes of management actions, accommodating change, and improving management. The critical requirements and toolboxes of an information management framework, referred to as the Adaptive Management Platform (AMP), to realize the goal of adaptive management are described. The AMP design that connects various modules to ensure that the decision-making needs are met. The modules are data management, visualization tools, optimization algorithms, and models of Columbia Basin physical and biological processes. When fully developed, AMP will enable subbasin planners and responsible entities throughout the Basin to collectively and continuously integrate data and decisions, assess cumulative trends and outcomes over time, and demonstrate discipline and accountability. AMP would function at the basin, ecoprovince, as well as the subbasin scale. AMP would assist in ensuring that uncertainties from individual modules and analytical integration are properly presented to decision makers.

Analysis of potential impacts to resident fish from Columbia River System Operation alternatives

The US Army Corps of Engineers, the US Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bonneville Power Administration initiated the Columbia River System Operation Review (SOR) in 1990. The SOR will assist agencies in comparing the benefits and risks to Columbia River uses and natural resources from alternative strategies for using Columbia River water. Focusing on 14 federal dams within the basin, the agencies are attempting to improve on the efficient and coordinated use of the Columbia River system. An initial screening of all potential strategies of reservoir operation was necessary to reduce the number of possibilities to a limited set for detailed analysis. To that end, the Resident Fish Work Group of the SOR developed spreadsheet models capable of assessing the impacts of different management strategies on resident fish at six storage reservoirs. The models include biological, physical, and hydrological relationships important to resident fish specific to each reservoir. Alternatives that kept the reservoirs near full pool and held stable during the growing season resulted in positive benefits to resident fish at all locations modeled. Conversely, alternatives designed to improve anadromous fish survival with increased instream flow generally had a negative impact on the resident fish in the reservoirs modeled. The models developed for resident fish in the screening analysis phase of the SOR were useful in assessing the relative impact to resident fish from a large number of alternatives. The screening analysis demonstrated that future analytical efforts must consider trade-offs among river uses/resource groups, among reservoirs throughout the basin, and among resident fish species within a reservoir.

Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the 200 Area Plateau of the Hanford Site, Southeast Washington

A composite analysis of low-level radioactive waste disposal and other radioactive sources was recently completed for the Hanford Site in Southeast Washington State. Impacts from source release and environmental transportwere estimated for a 1 000-year period following Site closure in a multi-step process involving 1) estimation of radiological inventories and releases, 2) assessment of contaminant migration through the vadose zone, groundwater, and atmospheric pathways, 3) and estimation of doses. The analysis showed that most of the radionuclide inventory in past-practice liquid discharge sites and pre-1988 solid waste burial grounds on the 200 Area Plateau will be released in the first several hundred years following Hanford Site closure, well before projected releases from active and planned disposals of solid waste. The maximum predicted agricultural dose was less than 6 mrem/y in 2050 and declined thereafter. The maximum doses for the residential, industrial, and recreational scenarios, were 2.2, 0.7, and 0.04 mrem/y, respectively, and also declined after 2050.