Lander Willem

Cost-effectiveness of vaccination against herpes zoster in adults aged over 60 years in Belgium

AIM To assess the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating all or subgroups of adults aged 60 to 85 years against herpes zoster. METHODS A deterministic compartmental static model was developed (in freeware R), in which cohorts can acquire herpes zoster according to their age in years. Surveys and database analyses were conducted to obtain as much as possible Belgian age-specific estimates for input parameters. Direct costs and Quality-Adjusted Life-Year (QALY) losses were estimated as a function of standardised Severity Of Illness (SOI) scores (i.e. as a function of the duration and severity of herpes zoster disease). RESULTS Uncertainty about the average SOI score for a person with herpes zoster, the duration of protection from the vaccine, and the population that can benefit from the vaccine, exerts a major impact on the results: under assumptions least in favour of vaccination, vaccination is not cost-effective (i.e. incremental cost per QALY gained >€48,000 for all ages considered) at the expected vaccine price of €90 per dose. At the same price, but under assumptions most in favour of vaccination, vaccination is found to be cost-effective (i.e. incremental cost per QALY gained <€5500 for all ages considered). Vaccination of age cohort 60 seems more cost-effective than vaccination of any older age cohort in Belgium. DISCUSSION If the vaccine price per dose drops to €45, HZ vaccination of adults aged 60-64 years is likely to be cost-effective in Belgium, even under assumptions least in favour of vaccination. Unlike previous studies, our analysis acknowledged major methodological and model uncertainties simultaneously and presented outcomes for 26 different target ages at which vaccination can be considered (ages 60-85).

A Nice Day for an Infection? Weather Conditions and Social Contact Patterns Relevant to Influenza Transmission

Although there is no doubt that significant morbidity and mortality occur during annual influenza epidemics, the role of contextual circumstances, which catalyze seasonal influenza transmission, remains unclear. Weather conditions are believed to affect virus survival, efficiency of transmission and host immunity, but seasonality may also be driven by a tendency of people to congregate indoors during periods of bad weather. To test this hypothesis, we combined data from a social contact survey in Belgium with local weather data. In the absence of a previous in-depth weather impact analysis of social contact patterns, we explored the possibilities and identified pitfalls. We found general dominance of day-type (weekend, holiday, working day) over weather conditions, but nonetheless observed an increase in long duration contacts (1 hour) on regular workdays with low temperatures, almost no precipitation and low absolute humidity of the air. Interestingly, these conditions are often assumed to be beneficial for virus survival and transmission. Further research is needed to establish the impact of the weather on social contacts. We recommend that future studies sample over a broad spectrum of weather conditions and day types and include a sufficiently large proportion of holiday periods and weekends.

Behavioural change models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2010–2015)

We review behavioural change models (BCMs) for infectious disease transmission in humans. Following the Cochrane collaboration guidelines and the PRISMA statement, our systematic search and selection yielded 178 papers covering the period 2010–2015. We observe an increasing trend in published BCMs, frequently coupled to (re)emergence events, and propose a categorization by distinguishing how information translates into preventive actions. Behaviour is usually captured by introducing information as a dynamic parameter (76/178) or by introducing an economic objective function, either with (26/178) or without (37/178) imitation. Approaches using information thresholds (29/178) and exogenous behaviour formation (16/178) are also popular. We further classify according to disease, prevention measure, transmission model (with 81/178 population, 6/178 metapopulation and 91/178 individual-level models) and the way prevention impacts transmission. We highlight the minority (15%) of studies that use any real-life data for parametrization or validation and note that BCMs increasingly use social media data and generally incorporate multiple sources of information (16/178), multiple types of information (17/178) or both (9/178). We conclude that individual-level models are increasingly used and useful to model behaviour changes. Despite recent advancements, we remain concerned that most models are purely theoretical and lack representative data and a validation process.

The cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination in healthy adults over 50: An exploration of influential factors for Belgium

BACKGROUND A recent trial demonstrated the 13 valent conjugate pneumococcal vaccine (PCV13) to be effective against invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal disease in healthy adults. PCV13 might therefore be considered as an alternative to the 23 valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23). AIM To explore the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating healthy adults over 50, with either PCV13 or PPV23 alone, or with a combined strategy using both PCV13 and PPV23. METHODS A static multi-cohort model was developed simulating the consequences of pneumococcal vaccination in adults over 50 from a health care payers perspective, for different scenarios of duration of vaccine protection and serotype evolution. RESULTS At currently expected prices, PCV13 vaccination of healthy adults over 50 is unlikely to be cost-effective either compared with no vaccination or in combination with PPV23 versus PPV23 only. CONCLUSION Further research is needed on vaccine efficacy of the combination strategy and of risk groups, as well as the duration of vaccine protection. Serotype evolutions under the influence of the childhood PCV program should be closely monitored.

Integrating between-host transmission and within-host immunity to analyze the impact of varicella vaccination on zoster

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes chickenpox and reactivation of latent VZV causes herpes zoster (HZ). VZV reactivation is subject to the opposing mechanisms of declining and boosted VZV-specific cellular mediated immunity (CMI). A reduction in exogenous re-exposure ‘opportunities’ through universal chickenpox vaccination could therefore lead to an increase in HZ incidence. We present the first individual-based model that integrates within-host data on VZV-CMI and between-host transmission data to simulate HZ incidence. This model allows estimating currently unknown pivotal biomedical parameters, including the duration of exogenous boosting at 2 years, with a peak threefold to fourfold increase of VZV-CMI; the VZV weekly reactivation probability at 5% and VZV subclinical reactivation having no effect on VZV-CMI. A 100% effective chickenpox vaccine given to 1 year olds would cause a 1.75 times peak increase in HZ 31 years after implementation. This increase is predicted to occur mainly in younger age groups than is currently assumed. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07116.001

Quantifying Parameter and Structural Uncertainty of Dynamic Disease Transmission Models Using MCMC: An Application to Rotavirus Vaccination in England and Wales.

Background. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are highly effective at preventing severe rotavirus disease. Rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in the United Kingdom and other countries partly based on modeling and cost-effectiveness results. However, most of these models fail to account for the uncertainty about several vaccine characteristics and the mechanism of vaccine action. Methods. A deterministic dynamic transmission model of rotavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom was developed. This improves on previous models by 1) allowing for 2 different mechanisms of action for Rotarix and RotaTeq, 2) using clinical trial data to understand these mechanisms, and 3) accounting for uncertainty by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Results. In the long run, Rotarix and RotaTeq are predicted to reduce the overall rotavirus incidence by 50% (39%−63%) and 44% (30%−62%), respectively but with an increase in incidence in primary school children and adults up to 25 y of age. The vaccines are estimated to give more protection than 1 or 2 natural infections. The duration of protection is highly uncertain but has only impact on the predicted reduction in rotavirus burden for values lower than 10 y. The 2 vaccine mechanism structures fit equally well with the clinical trial data. Long-term postvaccination dynamics cannot be predicted reliably with the data available. Conclusion. Accounting for the joint uncertainty of several vaccine characteristics resulted in more insight into which of these are crucial for determining the impact of rotavirus vaccination. Data for up to at least 10 y postvaccination and covering older children and adults are crucial to address remaining questions on the impact of widespread rotavirus vaccination.

Maternally Derived Immunity Extends Swine Influenza A Virus Persistence within Farrow-to-Finish Pig Farms: Insights from a Stochastic Event-Driven Metapopulation Model.

Swine Influenza A Viruses (swIAVs) have been shown to persist in farrow-to-finish pig herds with repeated outbreaks in successive batches, increasing the risk for respiratory disorders in affected animals and being a threat for public health. Although the general routes of swIAV transmission (i.e. direct contact and exposure to aerosols) were clearly identified, the transmission process between batches is still not fully understood. Maternally derived antibodies (MDAs) were stressed as a possible factor favoring within-herd swIAV persistence. However, the relationship between MDAs and the global spread among the different subpopulations in the herds is still lacking. The aim of this study was therefore to understand the mechanisms induced by MDAs in relation with swIAV spread and persistence in farrow-to-finish pig herds. A metapopulation model has been developed representing the population dynamics considering two subpopulations—breeding sows and growing pigs—managed according to batch-rearing system. This model was coupled with a swIAV-specific epidemiological model, accounting for partial passive immunity protection in neonatal piglets and an immunity boost in re-infected animals. Airborne transmission was included by a between-room transmission rate related to the current prevalence of shedding pigs. Maternally derived partial immunity in piglets was found to extend the duration of the epidemics within their batch, allowing for efficient between-batch transmission and resulting in longer swIAV persistence at the herd level. These results should be taken into account in the design of control programmes for the spread and persistence of swIAV in swine herds.

Herpes zoster is associated with herpes simplex and other infections in under 60 year-olds

OBJECTIVES We assessed the association between herpes zoster (HZ) and herpes simplex (HS) occurrence whilst controlling for risk factors of HZ. METHODS Using a Belgian general practitioner network, a retrospective cohort study with 3736 HZ patients and 14,076 age-gender-practice matched controls was performed, covering over 1.5 million patient-years. Multiple logistic regression was used with HZ as outcome and several diagnoses (malignancy, depression, diabetes mellitus, auto-immune diseases, asthma, multiple sclerosis, HIV, fractures), medications (systemic corticosteroids, biologicals, vaccination), HS and other infections as variables. RESULTS HS was significantly associated with HZ for all analysed time intervals (up to five years) post HZ (OR of 3.51 [2.09 5.88] 95%CI one year post HZ) and to a lesser extent for time ranges pre HZ. Registration of other infections was significantly associated with HZ in all time intervals pre and post HZ (OR up to 1.37). Malignancy up to five years pre HZ, depression up to one year pre or post HZ, fractures up to two years pre HZ, asthma, auto-immune diseases, and immunosuppressive medication one year pre or post HZ were also associated with HZ. CONCLUSIONS HZ and HS occurrences are significantly associated and potentially share a common susceptibility beyond the known risk factors.

Active Learning to Understand Infectious Disease Models and Improve Policy Making

Modeling plays a major role in policy making, especially for infectious disease interventions but such models can be complex and computationally intensive. A more systematic exploration is needed to gain a thorough systems understanding. We present an active learning approach based on machine learning techniques as iterative surrogate modeling and model-guided experimentation to systematically analyze both common and edge manifestations of complex model runs. Symbolic regression is used for nonlinear response surface modeling with automatic feature selection. First, we illustrate our approach using an individual-based model for influenza vaccination. After optimizing the parameter space, we observe an inverse relationship between vaccination coverage and cumulative attack rate reinforced by herd immunity. Second, we demonstrate the use of surrogate modeling techniques on input-response data from a deterministic dynamic model, which was designed to explore the cost-effectiveness of varicella-zoster virus vaccination. We use symbolic regression to handle high dimensionality and correlated inputs and to identify the most influential variables. Provided insight is used to focus research, reduce dimensionality and decrease decision uncertainty. We conclude that active learning is needed to fully understand complex systems behavior. Surrogate models can be readily explored at no computational expense, and can also be used as emulator to improve rapid policy making in various settings.

Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015)

BackgroundIndividual-based models (IBMs) are useful to simulate events subject to stochasticity and/or heterogeneity, and have become well established to model the potential (re)emergence of pathogens (e.g., pandemic influenza, bioterrorism). Individual heterogeneity at the host and pathogen level is increasingly documented to influence transmission of endemic diseases and it is well understood that the final stages of elimination strategies for vaccine-preventable childhood diseases (e.g., polio, measles) are subject to stochasticity. Even so it appears IBMs for both these phenomena are not well established. We review a decade of IBM publications aiming to obtain insights in their advantages, pitfalls and rationale for use and to make recommendations facilitating knowledge transfer within and across disciplines.MethodsWe systematically identified publications in Web of Science and PubMed from 2006-2015 based on title/abstract/keywords screening (and full-text if necessary) to retrieve topics, modeling purposes and general specifications. We extracted detailed modeling features from papers on established vaccine-preventable childhood diseases based on full-text screening.ResultsWe identified 698 papers, which applied an IBM for infectious disease transmission, and listed these in a reference database, describing their general characteristics. The diversity of disease-topics and overall publication frequency have increased over time (38 to 115 annual publications from 2006 to 2015). The inclusion of intervention strategies (8 to 52) and economic consequences (1 to 20) are increasing, to the detriment of purely theoretical explorations. Unfortunately, terminology used to describe IBMs is inconsistent and ambiguous. We retrieved 24 studies on a vaccine-preventable childhood disease (covering 7 different diseases), with publication frequency increasing from the first such study published in 2008. IBMs have been useful to explore heterogeneous between- and within-host interactions, but combined applications are still sparse. The amount of missing information on model characteristics and study design is remarkable.ConclusionsIBMs are suited to combine heterogeneous within- and between-host interactions, which offers many opportunities, especially to analyze targeted interventions for endemic infections. We advocate the exchange of (open-source) platforms and stress the need for consistent “branding”. Using (existing) conventions and reporting protocols would stimulate cross-fertilization between research groups and fields, and ultimately policy making in decades to come.