Larry D. Singell

Knight on Risk and Uncertainty

It is argued that the received interpretation of Frank Knights_(1921) classic risk-uncertainty distinction-as concerning whether or not agents have subjective probabilities-constitutes a misreading of Knight. On the contrary, Knight shared the modern view that agents can be assumed always to act as if they have subjective probabilities. The authors document their contention that by uncert ainty Knight instead meant situations in which insurance markets collapse because of moral hazard or adverse selection. Knights discussion of market failure, a lthough always informal and in placesinaccurate, was in many respects a remarka ble anticipation of the modern literature. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.

An Empirical Analysis of the Commute to Work Patterns of Males and Females in Two-Earner Households

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the proposition that residential decisions are made with reference to the male head of households job location, disadvantaging females in the labor market. A sample of approximately 50,000 adults in two-earner households in urban areas distributed across the United States is selected from public use microdata from the 1980 census and used to estimate a simultaneous model to explain commute to work behavior of men and women. The model is estimated separately for households that did and did not change residences in the past year. The impacts of the new residences on the commute times of both male and female workers, holding other variables constant, are compared. We conclude that residential selection does favor males relative to females, although there is evidence that this advantage is eliminated as the ratio of female to male earnings in the same household narrows.

Gender And Promotion In The Economics Profession

The authors use unique panel data on American Economic Association members to test for gender differences in promotion in a profession with a well-defined promotion and job hierarchy and in which men and women exhibit similar labor-market attachment. The results suggest that over the period from the 1960s through the early 1980s, female economists had lower levels of professional attainment and career advancement than did their male colleagues with similar attributes. These gender differences remain in evidence despite controls for unobserved heterogeneity and self-selection between academic and non-academic jobs. There is evidence, however, that promotion prospects for female economists significantly improved during the 1980s, not only at all ranks, but also within both Ph.D.-granting institutions and non-Ph.D.-granting institutions. In fact, the results reveal no unexplained gender-specific differences in promotion by the end of the 1980s.

Will Changing Times Change the Allocation of Faculty Time

This paper examines faculty time allocation decisions that are fundamental to the functioning of a university. A random-utility approach yields a grouped-data, multinomial logit model and predicts that time allocation decisions depend systematically on both personal and institutional attributes. The empirical results for a random sample of U.S. arts and sciences faculty indicate that structural differences between universities with different research orientations account for most of the significant differences in faculty time allocations. Faculty characteristics reinforce institutional missions, however, and thus condition university policies for change (for example, attempts to mandate greater time to teaching in research universities).

The Gender Composition and Scholarly Performance of Economics Departments: A Test for Employment Discrimination

Using data on academic economists in the years 1973, 1977, 1982, and 1987, the authors investigate gender differences in placement and their consequences for departmental productivity. The initial analysis shows that in the years studied, the departments that were highest-ranked on a measure of scholarly publications per faculty member were the least likely to hire female faculty. A second analysis shows that departments that hired fewer women in the 1970s subsequently declined in publications rank relative to other departments. Finally, in a third analysis the authors find that the research output of women in the 1970s cohort of economists was greater than that of their male counterparts at comparable institutions. These results reject productivity-based explanations for the observed differential placement, and they provide some of the first formal evidence that employment discrimination is costly to the employer.

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the 55 MPH Speed Limit

This article presents the results of an empirical study which estimates the number of reduced fatalities as a result of the imposed 55-mph speed limit. Time series data for the US from 1952 to 1979 is employed in a regression model capturing the relation between fatalities, average speed, variability of speed, and the speed limit. Also discussed are the alternative approaches to valuing human life and the value of time. Provided is a series of benefit-cost ratios based on alternative measures of the benefits and costs from life saving. The paper concludes that the 55-mph speed limit is not cost efficient unless additional time on the highway is valued significantly below levels estimated in the best reasearch on the value of time. 12 references, 1 table.

Gender Differences in First Jobs for Economists

Over the last several decades women have made substantial progress into traditionally maledominated professions. Reflecting this trend, much recent research has focused on explaining the choice of profession and the gender composition of the workforce [5; 23; 16]. However, a focus on occupation choice may conceal interesting patterns within professions. Because a profession can include a number of different job types with a distinct mix of professional activities, the dual labor-market phenomenon of primary and secondary jobs may also be present, although perhaps to a lesser extent, within a particular profession [17]. Gender differences in composition of employment among the various jobs within a profession could thus affect the status, pay, and advancement of women in the occupation. If women primarily place in secondary-type jobs, the advantages of entering a profession will be lower for women. Relatively little is known about career choice within a profession [15]. In this paper, we model the first-job choice of economists among several careers, and use data on new Ph.D. economists over the last thirty years to examine whether career choices differ by gender over a period of low, but increasing, representation of women. An advantage of our single-profession analysis is that it contains a relatively homogeneous set of workers with quantitative human-capital measures that other studies of job choice suggest are important [7]. There is significant variation in career choices available within economics that permits possible market segmentation [2]: there are research and teaching academic jobs, and the government and private sectors employ large numbers of economists. We find significant structural differences in the placements of male and female economists, indicating that the choices of female economists differ from those of their male counterparts both within academia and between this and other sectors. The economics profession provides a useful background to examine gender differences in the career choices of professionals in a male-dominated occupation. Over the last 30 years the average number of Ph.D.s conferred annually in the U.S. has increased from approximately 300 to over 800, reflecting increased opportunities for economists within economics departments and expansion of other-academic, government, and private-sector jobs. At the same time, the proportion

The Good, the Poor and the Wealthy: Who Responds Most to College Financial Aid?

Financial aid programmes for students in the United States focus increasingly on academic merit, rather than financial need. There is little empirical evidence, however, on the distributional effects of merit-based aid - who benefits or responds most. We develop a bivariate probit model of the enrolment process estimated using data for a large public university over several years. Results show that merit-based aid increases enrolment for all students, but that financially-able students respond disproportionately, even with academic merit held constant. Thus, increased emphasis on merit in financial aid may exacerbate the trend toward greater income inequality in the US, even among students of equal academic merit.

HOPE for the Pell? Institutional Effects in the Intersection of Merit-Based and Need-Based Aid

Prior empirical evidence finds that general enrollment effects of merit-aid programs such as the Georgia Helping Outstanding Pupils Educationally (HOPE) scholarship are large and significant, while the effects of need-based aid programs such as the Pell grant are modest and often insignificant. This paper uses new panel data on Pell awards to examine the influence of the Georgia HOPE scholarship on needy-student enrollments. We demonstrate that the introduction of merit aid in Georgia generally improves the college access of needy students and has been leveraged into greater federal Pell assistance. While institution-specific increases in both Pell enrollment and funding are largest at two-year and less selective four-year institutions, the results suggest that Pell students are not crowded out of more selective schools by HOPEs intent to retain the best Georgia high school students, as might have been anticipated.

The Pell Program at Thirty Years

THE PELL PROGRAM AT THIRTY YEARS For more than 30 years the Pell program has provided a voucherlike subsidy, for low-income students who apply for financial aid, to any qualifying college or university in the country. In 2005, the Pell program provided over