Larry Paisley

A retrospective analysis of the infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (bovine herpes virus-1) surveillance program in Norway using Monte Carlo simulation models

Serological surveillance for antibodies against bovine herpes virus type I (BHV-1) which causes infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and infectious pustular vulvovaginitis has been carried out since 1992 in Norway. Since 1993 (when a single infected herd was detected) all bulk-milk and pooled-serum samples have been negative for BHV-1 antibodies. This paper describes the use of Monte Carlo simulation models for the analysis and interpretation of the results of the surveillance and provides support for the contention that the Norwegian cattle population is not infected by BHV-1.

A simulated surveillance program for bovine paratuberculosis in dairy herds in Norway.

Monte Carlo simulation models were used to evaluate the feasibility and potential results of a proposed national survey of the prevalence of bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) in dairy herds in Norway. The expected herd prevalence was assumed to be 0.2% in the simulations. The low sensitivity of the ELISA test, the assumed low herd prevalence, the typical low within-herd prevalence of PTB and the small herd sizes all present problems in detection of the disease. Simulations with 500, 1000, 2500 and 6000 herds tested were done. Our results suggest that a national survey would not be feasible at present, due to the low probability of detecting infected herds and because of the high number of false-positive reactions that would be expected to occur.

Risk analysis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies in animals: state-of-the-art

The Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crisis of the last two decades has shown that proper interaction of risk assessment, risk management and risk communication is essential. Mathematical models and risk assessments have been used as a basis for BSE risk management options and much of the legislation regarding the control and eradication of BSE. Much uncertainty regarding important input parameters remains a major constraint in risk assessment. Uncertainty is one of the most critical and most difficult aspects of communication of risks about Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies (TSEs). Nevertheless, the decline in the BSE epidemic in the UK and most European countries demonstrates that management has been, for the most part, successful. Literature pertaining to the three inter-related facets of risk analysis: risk assessment, risk management and risk communication of TSEs of animal origin was reviewed and used to describe the state-of-the-art of risk analysis for TSEs.