Larry Schroeder

The rational voter: an analysis of two Atlanta referenda on rapid transit

Summary and conclusionsIn this paper we have analyzed voting behavior in two rapid transit referenda with the objectives of testing the rational voter hypothesis and providing insights into voter preferences for public mass transit. A framework was formulated based upon previous voter behavior models but applied to referenda on public transit proposals. The framework focused on three different variables — quantity of transport, tax/price of transport and the quality of transportation services. From this fairly simple framework, several testable hypotheses were drawn.The analyses of the referenda were performed on voting-precinct level data obtained from two rapid transit referenda held in Atlanta in 1968 and 1971. The data were especially interesting since there were few, but well-defined, differences in the two proposals — in 1968, only rapid rail was emphasized and property taxes were to be used to finance the local portion of the costs, while in 1971 both rapid rail and a substantial increase in bus services coupled with a decrease in bus fares was proposed, along with the use of a local sales tax to finance the local portion of the costs.The principal hypotheses stemming from the voter behavior framework were substantiated in the weighted logit regressions used to analyze the voting pattern. Current use of transit (measured by relative importance of bus ridership in commuting to work) and the relative importance of the CBD as a work place (measured as the percent of those in a precinct working in the CBD) both positively affected the proportion of votes in favor of the issues. The distance from the train station relative to the distance to the CBD (a measure of the benefits of the rail system) was negatively related to the percent voting as hypothesized. The absolute distance to the CBD (a measure of the benefits of the bus and rail systems) had the hypothesized parabolic relationship. In addition, although the framework does not produce an unequivocal prediction of how income might affect the outcome of the referenda, the empirical results suggested that income was positively associated with affirmative votes on the issues.We also considered further variables which influenced changes in voting patterns. The outcome of the 1968 proposal within a precinct proved to be very important in explaining the 1971 vote. Bus ridership was also an extremely important positive factor in determining proportions voting in favor of the 1971 issue. This then lends credence to the suspicion that in planning the 1971 transportation package, MARTA helped to insure a positive vote by offering enough to everyone (i.e. current bus riders, potential bus riders as well as potential rapid transit riders or its beneficiaries) so that it more than offset the increased local costs and use of a sales tax.The regression results strongly support the hypothesis that individual voters act in their own economic self-interest. Not only are the variables that reflect the benefits and cost of proposed transit systems significant in explaining voter behavior in the two Atlanta elections, they also explain differences in results in the two referenda. The results also lead to rejection of the non-economic arguments regarding voter behavior including the public regardedness hypothesis. Finally, the analysis suggests that passage of public transit referenda in Atlanta was dependent upon constructing a package of features designed to attract the support of a broad cross section of the electorate.

Local Government Multi-Year Budgetary Forecasting: Some Administrative and Political Issues

Change in Blue-Collar Work Force = variable indicating a 20 percent or more decrease in the yards blue-collar work force from 1972 to 1977 (0), between a 19 percent decrease and a 19 percent increase in the yards blue-collar work force from 1972 to 1977 (1), and a 20 percent or more increase in a yards blue-collar work force from 1972 to 1977, intended to capture changes in demands for labor.

Interrelatedness of Occupational and Geographical Labor Mobility

Examines the relationship between occupational and geographical mobility over periods of from one to five years. Why mobility interrelationships would be expected under a simple model of labor mobility; Investigation of short-term and long-term interrelationships between occupational and geographical mobility over one- and two-year periods. (Abstract copyright EBSCO.)

Evaluation of commercial economic forecasts for use in local government budgeting

Abstract Using a decision-making under uncertainty framework, this paper proposes an approach to evaluating commercial macroeconomic forecasts as used by local governments in forecasting revenues. The approach is applied to a case study of Kansas City. Forecasts of GNP and CPI provided by DRI, Chase and Wharton Econometrics are evaluated along with simple time series extrapolations as inputs to the revenue forecasting process. The results indicate that the variance of forecasts errors is minimized by either extrapolating exogenous variables using time series methods, or relying directly on time series extrapolation methods to forecast revenues.

Revenue forecasting, budget setting and risk

Abstract The budget-making process can be viewed as a problem of decision making under uncertainty since revenues are unknown at the time the budget is written. Revenue forecasts become information for describing the uncertainty in revenue receipts, thereby allowing the decision maker to trade off desire for a larger budget against the uncertainty in revenues. A chance constraint decision model is used to model this process. Application of the model to evaluate alternative forecasting techniques is then demonstrated for several revenue sources used in Kansas City, Missouri.

An Analysis of Quasi-Decentralized Budgeting in Vietnam

This article provides an analysis of the quasi-decentralized budgeting process used in Vietnam as defined in the 2002 Law on the State Budget. Although the Government is controlled by a single political party and relies on a single state budget, the Law grants provinces considerable decentralized power over allocation of tax revenues and expenditure responsibilities within their own jurisdictions. The article documents the effects of various aspects of the Law on the revenues and spending of sub-national governments in the country and illustrates how various provinces have responded to the decentralized powers granted under the Law.

Decentralization in Rural Bangladesh

Shortly after the declaration of Martial Law in Bangladesh by Lt. Gen. H. M. Ershad, a new policy initiative-administrative decentralization-was launched. Although previous governments had espoused decentralization, few real changes in administrative and governmental structure had occurred, and administration and local government in rural areas were organized in nearly the same fashion as during the East Pakistan era; indeed, the structure was little different from that existing during British colonial times. Since decentralization constitutes one of the primary domestic policies of the Ershad government and has now been underway for nearly three years, it would be useful to explain that policy and its goals in some detail, describe the progress that has been made, and point out the problems still facing administrative decentralization in Bangladesh. While the impact of the changes, which are still evolving, cannot be evaluated, the lessons from the past together with an examination of the future may have implications for Bangladesh as well as for other developing countries contemplating similar changes. These, then, are the objectives of this article.

Provincial Motor Vehicle Taxation in Indonesia

Vehicle-based taxes are collected by provincial governments in Indonesia and constitute their most important source of locally collected revenue. This paper evaluates the structure and revenue performance of the two vehicle-based taxes–-the vehicle registration tax and the vehicle transfer tax–-focusing in particular on their allocative efficiency. This is evaluated in terms of their potential to meet road maintenance resource requirements, and the study finds that objectives other than allocative efficiency have determined the structure of the two taxes.

An Approach to Measuring Subnational Administrative Autonomy in Education

Efforts to measure decentralization have focused on political or fiscal autonomy, but not on administrative autonomy. Focusing on the education sector, we measured de facto subnational administrative autonomy across 64 countries/economies, via the domains of human resource management, salary management, budget management, and service content design. The findings reveal that subnational autonomy can differ substantially across those domains and within countries, and that the use of a single country-level indicator for administrative decentralization is inadequate. Furthermore, we show that administrative decentralization is as significant a factor as federal status in evaluating the degree to which a country/economy is decentralized or centralized.

Public sector forecasting m the third world

Abstract Fiscal forecasting in the Third World is still in its infancy. This paper indicates the many constraints faced by those attempting to make intermediate term (three to five year) forecasts of government revenues and expenditures. Because of the lack of extensive data and complex forecasting models of the economy, revenue projections are most commonly made from simple time series or elasticity-based models. Spending forecasts are generally made using deterministic methods, relying primarily upon current input combinations and assumptions concerning future changes in these inputs along with assumptions regarding price increases. The paper demonstrates how these techniques were used in Thailand during the early 1980s when the nation faced serious problems of deficits and had approached the World Bank for a structural adjustment loan. A portion of the loan proceeds was used to form an inter-agency forecasting group comprised of the key agencies involved in making short- and long-term economic and fiscal policy. The results of the exercise was a forecast that was subsequently used to alter both revenue and expenditure policies. The recent improvement in the central government fisc of this developing country may be at least in part attributed to the increased understanding that the forecasting effort fostered.