Lars-Göran Mattsson

Determinism and backcasting in future studies

In this paper, four frequently cited approaches to future studies are criticised. We use examples mainly from the field of transport research. The first approach is the tendency to try to establish ...

Road pricing : theory, empirical assessment and policy

Preface. Introduction. I: Theory. 1. Principles of Road Pricing B. Johansson, L.-G. Mattsson. 2. Road Pricing as an Instrument in Traffic Management K. Button. 3. A Conceptual Framework for Pricing Congestion and Road Damage T.D. Hau. 4. Existence of Optimal Tolls under Conditions of Stochastic User-Equilibria A.E. Smith, E.A. Eriksson, P.O. Lindberg. II: Empirical Knowledge. 5. Willingness to Pay for Time Savings: the Trondheim Toll Road Experiences T. Tretvik. 6. An Evaluation of the Impact of the Oslo Toll Scheme on Travel Behaviour F. Ramjerdi. 7. Congestion Metering in Cambridge City, United Kingdom B. Oldridge. III: Policy. 8. Road Pricing or Transport Planning? P.B. Goodwin. 9. Road Pricing: the Public Viewpoint P.M. Jones. 10. From Theory and Policy Analysis to the Implementation of Road Pricing: the Stockholm Region in the 1990s B. Johansson, L.-G. Mattsson. 11. Road Pricing: Policy and Options for the Future G. Lindberg. 12. Instruments for Charging Congestion Externalities T.D. Hau. Index of References. List of Authors.

Probabilistic choice and procedurally bounded rationality

Abstract We derive a family of probabilistic choice models, including the multinomial logit model, from a microeconomic model in which the decision maker has to make some effort in order to implement any desired outcome. The disutility of this effort enters the decision makers goal function in an additively separable way. A particular disutility function, yielding the multinomial logit as a special case, is characterized axiomatically. The present approach naturally leads to a normalization of the achieved utility with respect to the number of alternatives. The approach also applies to continuum choice sets in Euclidean spaces, and provides a microeconomic foundation for logit-type quantal-response models in game theory.

An integrated model of residential and employment location in a metropolitan region

The purpose of this paper is to improve the tools available for analyzing and evaluating land-use and transport policies in a regional planning context. A normative residential location submodel is combined with a predictive submodel for the location of employment. The demand side of the residential location submodel is formulated as a nested multinomial logit model of the joint choice of residential location and transportation mode. The cost of commuting is assumed to be a major determinant of locational choice. The employment location submodel is based on the assumption that accessibility to the labor force is the strategic location factor. Two versions of the submodels are proposed corresponding to a post- and pre-distribution modal split in the familiar four-step transport model. Policy tests of a newly proposed, large-scale traffic investment program in the Stockholm region are reported.

A model for integrated analysis of household location and travel choices

We develop a model for integrated analysis of household location and travel choices and investigate it from a theoretical point of view. Each household makes a joint choice of location (zone and house type) and a travel pattern that maximizes utility subject to budget and time constraints. Prices for housing are calculated so that demand equals supply in each submarket. The travel pattern consists of a set of expected trip frequencies to different destinations with different modes. The joint time and budget constraints ensure that time and cost sensitivities are consistent throughout the model. Choosing the entire travel pattern at once, as opposed to treating travel decisions as a series of isolated choices, allows the marginal utilities of trips to depend on which other trips are made. When choosing trip frequencies to destinations, households are assumed to prefer variation to an extent varying with the purpose of the trip. The travel pattern will tend to be more evenly distributed across trip ends the less similar destinations and individual preferences are. These heterogeneities of destinations and individual preferences, respectively, are expressed in terms of a set of parameters to be estimated.

Modeling residential location choice in relation to housing location and road tolls on congested urban highway networks

We present a reformulation of the residential location submodel of the Integrated Model of Residential and Employment Location as a network equilibrium problem, thereby making travel costs by auto endogenous. The location of housing supply is examined as a welfare maximization problem for both user-optimal and system-optimal travel costs using concepts of bilevel programming. Finally, we briefly discuss how the employment submodel can be reformulated, and the entire model solved as a variational inequality problem.

Road network vulnerability analysis : Conceptualization, implementation and application

The paper describes a process for road network vulnerability analysis, from (i) the conceptual definition of vulnerability measures, through (ii) the derivation of practical indicators and models adapted to available data and their implementation in computational procedures, to (iii) the application of the methodology in case studies. In the first step, the vulnerability concept is defined and quantified formally, and distinct user and technological perspectives are highlighted. In the second step, the conceptual measures are adapted and calculated according to the conditions, requirements and goals of a particular analysis. The paper describes practical indicators and algorithms developed for large-scale vulnerability analyses. For the third step, the paper analyzes both single link closures and area-covering disruptions and the distribution of impacts among different regions in a case study on the Swedish road transport system. The spatial patterns are put in connection with the regional variations in location and travel patterns and network density. Finally, the implications for policy and possible approaches to vulnerability management are discussed.

Vulnerability : A model-based case study of the road network in Stockholm

Vulnerability, exposure and criticality in various infrastructures are issues that have been more explicitly looked into in recent years. However, road vulnerability as such has not been in focus for very long, despite the fundamental importance of our road networks in everyday life, as well as in crisis evacuation situations. Consequently, network reliability in transport modelling is an important and growing field of research (Lam 1999). The connection between reliability, vulnerability and other related concepts are discussed in Berdica (2002), with the main proposition that vulnerability analysis of road networks should be regarded as an overall framework, within which different transport studies can be performed to describe how well our transport systems function when exposed to different kinds of disturbances. Following that approach, this paper presents the results from a model-based case study, performed with the overall objective to study how vulnerable the Stockholm road network is in different respects. More specifically it is built up around three main questions: 1. How do interruptions of different critical links affect the system and how important are these links in relation to one another? 2. How is the network performance affected by general capacity reductions and possible prioritisation of a sub-network? 3. How is the system affected by traffic demand variations, i.e. how close to its capacity limit does the system operate?

Equivalence between welfare and entropy approaches to residential location

Abstract An optimization model for residential location in an urban area is presented. As the objective, a welfare measure is considered which is derived as aggregated expected utility based on utility-maximizing individual behaviour. The utilities include travel costs for work trips as well as a measure of the disutility with high-density living. The problem of finding a welfare maximizing housing allocation is shown to be equivalent to an entropy maximizing problem provided that a certain condition is met. By considering a dual formulation, a computationally more expedient problem is obtained. The model approach is illustrated by a few applications to the Stockholm region.

Railway capacity and train delay relationships

Reliable transport infrastructure systems are vital for the functioning of modern societies. People in their everyday lives, as well as trade and industry, plan their activities on the assumption that it is possible to travel and to transport goods between different places in a fast, safe and predictable way. Over time the development of the transport infrastructure has allowed people and goods to be transported at higher speeds. This has contributed, for good or bad, to a spatial reorganisation of many human activities on a local as well as a global geographical scale. Transport systems, as all technical systems, are more or less reliable, however. This is an important aspect of the quality of transport services, which may have spatial implications. In many big cities capacity shortages lead to congestion and unreliable transports that hamper the development. In rural areas lack of alternative transport routes, in case the main route has to be closed for some reason, contributes to make these areas less attractive for location.