Lars Leden

MEASURING THE SAFETY EFFECT OF RAISED BICYCLE CROSSINGS USING A NEW RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

Before-and-after study methodology was developed and applied to evaluating the effect on bicyclists’ safety of raising urban bicycle crossings by 4 to 12 cm. In total, 44 junctions were reconstructed in this way in Gothenburg, Sweden. Four of these were studied in detail. Before the implementations, bicyclists were riding either in the roadway or on separate paths parallel to the roadway. The paths then ended with short ramps or curb cuts at each cross street, and bicyclists used nonelevated, marked bicycle crossings, similar to pedestrian crosswalks but delineated by white painted rectangles rather than zebra stripes. The results show that the paths with raised crossings attracted more than 50 percent more bicyclists and that the safety per bicyclist was improved by approximately 20 percent due to the increase in bicycle flow, and with an additional 10 to 50 percent due to the improved layout. However, the increased bicyclist volume means that the total number of bicycle accidents is expected to increase. Besides accident analysis, the change in risk was estimated using four different methods: surveys of bicyclists and experts, respectively; conflict data; and a quantitative expert model. Using a Bayesian approach for combining the results shows that the most likely effect of raising the bicycle crossing is a risk reduction of around 30 percent, compared with the before situation with a conventional bicycle crossing. Motorists and pedestrians also saw safety benefits from this traffic-calming measure.

AN EXPERT JUDGMENT MODEL APPLIED TO ESTIMATING THE SAFETY EFFECT OF A BICYCLE FACILITY

This paper presents a risk index model that can be used for assessing the safety effect of countermeasures. The model estimates risk in a multiplicative way, which makes it possible to analyze the impact of different factors separately. Expert judgments are incorporated through a Bayesian error model. The variance of the risk estimate is determined by Monte-Carlo simulation. The model was applied to assess the safety effect of a new design of a bicycle crossing. The intent was to gain safety by raising the crossings to reduce vehicle speeds and by making the crossings more visible by painting them in a bright color. Before the implementations, bicyclists were riding on bicycle crossings of conventional Swedish type, i.e. similar to crosswalks but delineated by white squares rather than solid lines or zebra markings. Automobile speeds were reduced as anticipated. However, it seems as if the positive effect of this was more or less canceled out by increased bicycle speeds. The safety per bicyclist was still improved by approximately 20%. This improvement was primarily caused by an increase in bicycle flow, since the data show that more bicyclists at a given location seem to benefit their safety. The increase in bicycle flow was probably caused by the new layout of the crossings since bicyclists perceived them as safer and causing less delay. Some future development work is suggested. Pros and cons with the used methodology are discussed. The most crucial parameter to be added is probably a model describing the interaction between motorists and bicyclists, for example, how risk is influenced by the lateral position of the bicyclist in relation to the motorist. It is concluded that the interaction seems to be optimal when both groups share the roadway.

The effect of resurfacing on friction, speeds and safety on main roads in Finland

This study aimed at examining how resurfacing and the first winter period after resurfacing affect the safety of main roads in Finland. The study consisted of three substudies. In the first substudy the changes of side friction and lock braking friction were measured on newly paved roads after resurfacing and after the first winter period. The effect of different resurfacing methods was also compared in the course of the study. All the 50 road sections in the study were resurfaced in summer 1991 and measured with the friction truck of the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). Friction was found to be highly dependent on the type of resurfacing treatment. In general, the friction of surfaces with high coefficients after resurfacing decrease and the lowest frictions increase with time, locked braking friction values immediately after resurfacing can be undesirably low. The second substudy dealt with the effect of resurfacing on the vehicle speeds. The analysis was based on automatic speed and weather measurement in 1991 and 1992 on resurfaced roads, which were resurfaced in the summer 1991 and on a sample of comparison roads which had not been resurfaced. There is little change in speeds on the non-resurfaced roads during the study period, but there is some indication that resurfacing increases the average speeds, at least when the road is dry. Complete data were available for only one site, where the result was that average speeds on dry roads increased after resurfacing by 0.6 km/h and increased still more (by 0.5 km/h) after the first winter period. The third substudy analysed fatal and injury accidents reported to the police on the resurfaced and comparison roads one and two years before, the same year resurfacing was performed and one and two years after the resurfacing. The accident results were similar to the speed findings. The most likely effect is a risk increase immediately after resurfacing by somewhat less than 7% and of 3 to 7% of the first winter period. These results are, however, subject to large uncertainty because of the small number of accidents on the treatment roads.

Can cyclist safety be improved with intelligent transport systems

In recent years, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) have assisted in the decrease of road traffic fatalities, particularly amongst passenger car occupants. Vulnerable Road Users (VRUs) such as pedestrians, cyclists, moped riders and motorcyclists, however, have not been that much in focus when developing ITS. Therefore, there is a clear need for ITS which specifically address VRUs as an integrated element of the traffic system. This paper presents the results of a quantitative safety impact assessment of five systems that were estimated to have high potential to improve the safety of cyclists, namely: Blind Spot Detection (BSD), Bicycle to Vehicle communication (B2V), Intersection safety (INS), Pedestrian and Cyclist Detection System+Emergency Braking (PCDS+EBR) and VRU Beacon System (VBS). An ex-ante assessment method proposed by Kulmala (2010) targeted to assess the effects of ITS for cars was applied and further developed in this study to assess the safety impacts of ITS specifically designed for VRUs. The main results of the assessment showed that all investigated systems affect cyclist safety in a positive way by preventing fatalities and injuries. The estimates considering 2012 accident data and full penetration showed that the highest effects could be obtained by the implementation of PCDS+EBR and B2V, whereas VBS had the lowest effect. The estimated yearly reduction in cyclist fatalities in the EU-28 varied between 77 and 286 per system. A forecast for 2030, taking into accounts the estimated accident trends and penetration rates, showed the highest effects for PCDS+EBR and BSD.

Toward vision zero at zebra crossings: Case study of traffic safety and mobility for children and the elderly, Malmo, Sweden

The Swedish Vision Zero’s goal is to eliminate all fatalities and incapacitating traffic injuries. One step toward Vision Zero is through traffic calming. Code changes are also part of this effort. The Swedish Code concerning car drivers’ responsibility to give way to pedestrians was strengthened in 2000. A study was done to evaluate the short-term effects of the change in the code, as well as of the reconstruction of urban intersections to eliminate overtaking and speeding over 30 km/h. The focus of the evaluation was on children and elderly people, as pedestrians and cyclists. Between 1995 and 1999, an average of 7 pedestrians were killed and about 60 seriously injured at unsignalized zebra crossings. In 2001, those numbers were 8 and 70, respectively, despite the fact that some crosswalks were eliminated in connection with the change of the code. The conclusion is that the change of code has not improved safety. Field studies in Malmö in regard to behavior, speed, and conflicts, as well as analysis of crash data, show that the code change has increased mobility for cyclists, whereas motor vehicle speeds did not change significantly. The reconstruction increased mobility further and, at least based on indirect measures, improved safety. Also, safe traffic behavior, expressed as one’s looking sideways, increased somewhat at the reconstructed intersections, but stopping at the curb before crossing the street decreased. Children and the elderly did not benefit more than people in other age groups.