Lasse Loepfe

An integrative model of human-influenced fire regimes and landscape dynamics

Fire regimes depend on climate, vegetation structure and human influences. Climate determines the water content in fuel and, in the longer term, the amount of biomass. Humans alter fire regimes through increased ignition frequency and by hindering the spread of fire through fire suppression and fuel fragmentation. Here, we present FIRE LADY (FIre REgime and LAndscape DYnamics), a spatially explicit fire regime model that takes into account daily weather data, topography, vegetation growth, fire behaviour, fire suppression and land use changes. In this model, vegetation growth depends on water availability, and stem diameter and stand density are the fundamental parameters. Fire behaviour is modelled using the Rothermel equations and taking into account both crown fire and spotting. Human influences on fire regime, such as ignition frequency, fire suppression and land use changes, are explicitly modelled. The model was calibrated for three regions in NE Spain and reproduces fire regimes, changes in land cover distribution and tree biomass with promising accuracy. The explicit modelling of human influences makes the model a useful and unique tool for assessing the impacts of climate change and informing local fire regime management strategies.

Spatial distribution and packing of xylem conduits.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY The hydraulic properties of the xylem determine the ability of plants to transport water from the soil to the leaves and to cope with important stress factors such as frost and drought. Hydraulic properties have usually been studied as a function of the anatomy of xylem conduits and their pits, but recent studies have proposed that system-level properties, related to the topology of the xylem network, may also play a role. Here we study how the spatial arrangement of conduits in xylem cross sections affects the relationship between mean conduit lumen area and conduit density (packing function) across species. METHODS Point pattern analysis was used to describe the spatial distribution of xylem conduits in 97 woody species. The effect of conduit aggregation on the packing function was tested using phylogenetic generalized least squares. A hydraulic model with an explicit description of the topology of the xylem network was used to interpret the functional significance of our findings. KEY RESULTS The spatial arrangement of conduits affected the packing function across species, so that species with aggregated distributions tended to have lower conduit densities for a given conduit size and lower conduit lumen fractions. According to our modeling results, the higher conduit-to-conduit connectivity of species with aggregated distributions allows them to achieve higher hydraulic conductivity. Species with aggregated conduits, however, pay a cost in terms of increased vulnerability to embolism. CONCLUSIONS The spatial arrangement of conduits affects the fundamental structural and functional attributes of the xylem.

Management alternatives to offset climate change effects on Mediterranean fire regimes in NE Spain

Fire regime is affected by climate and human settlements. In the Mediterranean, the predicted climate change is likely to exacerbate fire prone weather conditions, but the mid- to long-term impact of climate change on fire regime is not easily predictable. A negative feedback via fuel reduction, for instance, might cause a non-linear response of burned area to fire weather. Also, the number of fires escaping initial control could grow dramatically if the fire meteorology is just slightly more severe than what fire brigades are prepared for. Humans can directly influence fire regimes through ignition frequency, fire suppression and land use management. Here we use the fire regime model FIRE LADY to assess the impacts of climate change and local management options on number of fires, burned area, fraction of area burned in large fires and forest area during the twenty-first century in three regions of NE Spain. Our results show that currently fuel-humidity limited regions could suffer a drastic shift of fire regime with an up to 8 fold increase of annual burned area, due to a combination of fuel accumulation and severe fire weather, which would result in a period of unusually large fires. The impact of climate change on fire regime is predicted to be less pronounced in drier areas, with a gradual increase of burned area. Local fire prevention strategies could reduce but not totally offset climate induced changes in fire regimes. According to our model, a combination of restoring the traditional rural mosaic and classical fire prevention would be the most effective strategy, as a lower ignition frequency reduces the number of fires and the creation of agricultural fields in marginal areas reduces their extent.

A quantitative and statistically robust method for the determination of xylem conduit spatial distribution

UNLABELLED PREMISE OF THE STUDY Because of their limited length, xylem conduits need to connect to each other to maintain water transport from roots to leaves. Conduit spatial distribution in a cross section plays an important role in aiding this connectivity. While indices of conduit spatial distribution already exist, they are not well defined statistically. • METHODS We used point pattern analysis to derive new spatial indices. One hundred and five cross-sectional images from different species were transformed into binary images. The resulting point patterns, based on the locations of the conduit centers-of-area, were analyzed to determine whether they departed from randomness. Conduit distribution was then modeled using a spatially explicit stochastic model. • KEY RESULTS The presence of conduit randomness, uniformity, or aggregation depended on the spatial scale of the analysis. The large majority of the images showed patterns significantly different from randomness at least at one spatial scale. A strong phylogenetic signal was detected in the spatial variables. • CONCLUSIONS Conduit spatial arrangement has been largely conserved during evolution, especially at small spatial scales. Species in which conduits were aggregated in clusters had a lower conduit density compared to those with uniform distribution. Statistically sound spatial indices must be employed as an aid in the characterization of distributional patterns across species and in models of xylem water transport. Point pattern analysis is a very useful tool in identifying spatial patterns.

Comparison of burnt area estimates derived from satellite products and national statistics in Europe

Burnt area maps based on satellite observations are frequently used in calculations related to fire regime, such as those of carbon dioxide emissions. Nevertheless, burnt area estimates between products vary widely, and validation against independent data is scarce, especially for Europe. Here we compare two active fire maps (the ATSR World Fire Atlas and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Active Fire Product) and two fire scars maps (the L3JRC and the MODIS Burned Area Product) to independent national statistics taken from 22 European countries between 1997 and 2008. We also tested the coincidence between satellite products derived by calculation of the fraction of active fires that were confirmed by a subsequent drop in reflectance. As a large proportion of fire pixels (between 40% and 66%, depending on the product) is located on urban land or crop fields, filtering out fires located on these land uses greatly improves the agreement between satellite-based burnt area estimates and national statistics and it also improves the coincidence between satellite products. The MODIS Active Fire Product appears to be most suitable for use as a proxy for burnt area patterns, showing a high correlation to national statistics (R2 = 0.9), relatively low spatial and temporal heterogeneity and only a slight underestimation of the total burnt area (19 000 ha year–1). Unfiltered products show cases of substantial wildfire overestimation in all products, mainly attributable to anthropogenic activity, in the case of active fire products, and drought-induced vegetation dieback, in that of fire scar maps. Thus, filtering out fires on anthropogenic land uses seems to be essential when analysing patterns of forest fires from satellite observations. However, if agricultural fires are to be included, a combination of MODIS Active Fire and MODIS Burned Area products is recommended. We obtained that such combination shows low temporal and spatial heterogeneity and the highest coincidence between satellite products (25%), although the correlation to national statistics is not very high (R2 = 0.67) and clearly underestimates the total burnt area (187 000 ha year–1).