László Varga

Solution-phase parallel synthesis of 4,6-diaryl-pyrimidine- 2-ylamines and 2-amino-5,5-disubstituted-3,5-dihydro-imidazol- 4-ones via a rearrangement

The reaction of chalcones and guanidine was investigated in the presence of an oxidizing agent. Depending on the order of the addition either a 4,6-diaryl-pyrimidine-2-ylamine or 2-amino-5,5-disubstituted-3,5-dihydro-imidazol-4-one was obtained. The structures of the imidazolinones were elucidated by NMR spectroscopy and X-ray crystallography and for its formation a mechanism was proposed.

Benefit of Online Real-Time Data in the Braess Paradox with Anticipatory Routing

The routing problem in traffic networks is a prominent problem of distributed adaptive systems. The online routing game model is used to investigate the routing problem, when each subsequent agent of the traffic flow may select different route based on real-time data. Recent investigations proved that if the agents of such system use shortest path search strategy, then in some situations sometimes the multi-agent system may be worse off with real-time data than without real-time data. This paper contributes to the state-of-the-art by proving the guaranteed worst case benefit of online real-time data in the Braess paradox where each subsequent agent of the traffic flow may select different route using anticipatory techniques.

Paradox Phenomena in Autonomously Self-Adapting Navigation

Abstract The online routing game model can be used to measure and prove the benefits of online real time data in road traffic navigation systems. A few properties of the routing strategies are already proved. In this paper we point out that there are some paradoxes like phenomena behind these proofs, similarly as in the Braess network.

On Intention-Propagation-Based Prediction in Autonomously Self-Adapting Navigation

It is widely believed that road traffic as a whole self-adapts to the current situation to make travel times shorter by avoiding congestions, if the autonomously operating navigation devices exploit real-time traffic information. The classical theoretical models do not have definite answer if car navigation based on real-time data is able to self-adapt and produce better traffic or not. The novel theoretical approach to study this belief is the online routing game model. Current commercial car navigation systems are modelled with the class of simple naive online routing games. It is already proved that simple naive online routing games may show undesirable phenomena. One of the approaches to improve car navigation is intention-propagation-based prediction where agents share their intention and can forecast future travel times. In this paper we prove that in spite of exploiting prediction in online routing games, the phenomena studied in simple naive online routing games are still possible, although in a different way. With these results we point out where improvements are needed in collective adaptive systems composed of navigation devices.

A New Approach to Defining Software Design Complexity

A general method is given for defining architectural design complexity measures. Desired properties of a measure are described by functional equations. Two cases of descriptions are considered. Complexity measures are given as the solutions of functional equations. Other complexity measures can be regarded as special cases of the solutions. A new measure is also presented.

Generalised block bootstrap and its use in meteorology

In an earlier paper Rakonczai et al. (2014), we have emphasized the effective sample size for autocorrelated data. The simulations were based on the block bootstrap methodology. However, the discreteness of the usual block size did not allow for exact calculations. In this paper we propose a generalisation of the block bootstrap methodology, relate it to the existing optimisation procedures and apply it to a temperature data set. Our other focus is on statistical tests, where quite often the actual sample size plays an important role, even in case of relatively large samples. This is especially the case for copulas. These are used for investigating the dependencies among data sets. As in quite a few real applications the time dependence cannot be neglected, we investigated the effect of this phenomenon to the used test statistic. The critical values can be computed by the proposed new block bootstrap simulation, where the block sizes are determined e.g. by fitting a VAR model to the observations. The results are illustrated for models of the used temperature data.

Two Prediction Methods for Intention-Aware Online Routing Games

Intention-aware prediction is regarded as an important agreement technology to help large amount of agents in aligning their activities towards an equilibrium. If the agents do not align their activities in online routing games, then the multi-agent system is not guaranteed to get to a stable equilibrium. We formally define two intention-aware prediction methods for online routing games and empirically evaluate them in a real-world scenario. The experiments confirm that the defined intention-aware routing strategies limit the fluctuation in this online routing game scenario and make the system more or less converge to the equilibrium.

Game Theory Models for the Verification of the Collective Behaviour of Autonomous Cars.

The collective of autonomous cars is expected to generate almost optimal traffic. In this position paper we discuss the multi-agent models and the verification results of the collective behaviour of autonomous cars. We argue that non-cooperative autonomous adaptation cannot guarantee optimal behaviour. The conjecture is that intention aware adaptation with a constraint on simultaneous decision making has the potential to avoid unwanted behaviour. The online routing game model is expected to be the basis to formally prove this conjecture.

Applications of threshold models and the weighted bootstrap for Hungarian precipitation data

This paper presents applications of the peaks-over-threshold methodology for both the univariate and the recently introduced bivariate case, combined with a novel bootstrap approach. We compare the proposed bootstrap methods to the more traditional profile likelihood. We have investigated 63 years of the European Climate Assessment daily precipitation data for five Hungarian grid points, first separately for the summer and winter months, then aiming at the detection of possible changes by investigating 20 years moving windows. We show that significant changes can be observed both in the univariate and the bivariate cases, the most recent period being the most dangerous in several cases, as some return values have increased substantially. We illustrate these effects by bivariate coverage regions.

A Game Theory Model for Self-adapting Traffic Flows with Autonomous Navigation

It is widely believed that road traffic as a whole self-adapts to the current situation to make travel times shorter, if the navigation devices exploit real-time traffic information. A novel theoretical approach to study this belief is the online routing game model. This chapter describes the model of online routing games in order to be able to determine how we can measure and prove the benefits of online real-time data in navigation systems. Three different notions of the benefit of online data and two classes of online routing games are defined. The class of simple naive online routing games represents the current commercial car navigation systems. Simple naive online routing games may have undesirable properties: stability is not guaranteed, single flow intensification may be possible and the worst case benefit of online data may be bigger than one, i.e. it may be a “price”. One of the approaches to avoid such problems of car navigation is intention propagation where agents share their intention and can forecast future travel times. The class of simple naive intention propagation online routing games represents the navigation systems that use shortest path planning based on forecast future travel times. In spite of exploiting intention propagation in online routing games, single flow intensification may be possible, the traffic may fluctuate and the worst case benefit may be bigger than one. These theoretical investigations point out issues that need to be solved by future research on decision strategies for self-adapting traffic flows with autonomous navigation.