Laura Alessandretti

Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market

The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of

Random walks on activity-driven networks with attractiveness

100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and May 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-)exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction.

User-based representation of time-resolved multimodal public transportation networks

Virtually all real-world networks are dynamical entities. In social networks, the propensity of nodes to engage in social interactions (activity) and their chances to be selected by active nodes (attractiveness) are heterogeneously distributed. Here, we present a time-varying network model where each node and the dynamical formation of ties are characterized by these two features. We study how these properties affect random-walk processes unfolding on the network when the time scales describing the process and the network evolution are comparable. We derive analytical solutions for the stationary state and the mean first-passage time of the process, and we study cases informed by empirical observations of social networks. Our work shows that previously disregarded properties of real social systems, such as heterogeneous distributions of activity and attractiveness as well as the correlations between them, substantially affect the dynamical process unfolding on the network.Laura Alessandretti, ∗ Kaiyuan Sun, † Andrea Baronchelli, ‡ and Nicola Perra § Department of Mathematics City, University of London Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, UK Laboratory for the Modelling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston MA 02115 USA Centre for Business Network Analysis, University of Greenwich, Park Row, London SE10 9LS, United Kingdom (Dated: January 24, 2017)

Evidence for a Conserved Quantity in Human Mobility

Multimodal transportation systems, with several coexisting services like bus, tram and metro, can be represented as time-resolved multilayer networks where the different transportation modes connecting the same set of nodes are associated with distinct network layers. Their quantitative description became possible recently due to openly accessible datasets describing the geo-localized transportation dynamics of large urban areas. Advancements call for novel analytics, which combines earlier established methods and exploits the inherent complexity of the data. Here, we provide a novel user-based representation of public transportation systems, which combines representations, accounting for the presence of multiple lines and reducing the effect of spatial embeddedness, while considering the total travel time, its variability across the schedule, and taking into account the number of transfers necessary. After the adjustment of earlier techniques to the novel representation framework, we analyse the public transportation systems of several French municipal areas and identify hidden patterns of privileged connections. Furthermore, we study their efficiency as compared to the commuting flow. The proposed representation could help to enhance resilience of local transportation systems to provide better design policies for future developments.

Multi-scale spatio-temporal analysis of human mobility

Recent seminal works on human mobility have shown that individuals constantly exploit a small set of repeatedly visited locations1–3. A concurrent study has emphasized the explorative nature of human behaviour, showing that the number of visited places grows steadily over time4–7. How to reconcile these seemingly contradicting facts remains an open question. Here, we analyse high-resolution multi-year traces of ~40,000 individuals from 4 datasets and show that this tension vanishes when the long-term evolution of mobility patterns is considered. We reveal that mobility patterns evolve significantly yet smoothly, and that the number of familiar locations an individual visits at any point is a conserved quantity with a typical size of ~25. We use this finding to improve state-of-the-art modelling of human mobility4,8. Furthermore, shifting the attention from aggregated quantities to individual behaviour, we show that the size of an individual’s set of preferred locations correlates with their number of social interactions. This result suggests a connection between the conserved quantity we identify, which as we show cannot be understood purely on the basis of time constraints, and the ‘Dunbar number’9,10 describing a cognitive upper limit to an individual’s number of social relations. We anticipate that our work will spark further research linking the study of human mobility and the cognitive and behavioural sciences.Analysing high-resolution mobility traces from almost 40,000 individuals reveals that people typically revisit a set of 25 familiar locations day-to-day, but that this set evolves over time and is proportional to the size of their social sphere.

Bitcoin Ecology: Quantifying and Modelling the Long-Term Dynamics of the Cryptocurrency Market

The recent availability of digital traces generated by phone calls and online logins has significantly increased the scientific understanding of human mobility. Until now, however, limited data resolution and coverage have hindered a coherent description of human displacements across different spatial and temporal scales. Here, we characterise mobility behaviour across several orders of magnitude by analysing ∼850 individuals’ digital traces sampled every ∼16 seconds for 25 months with ∼10 meters spatial resolution. We show that the distributions of distances and waiting times between consecutive locations are best described by log-normal and gamma distributions, respectively, and that natural time-scales emerge from the regularity of human mobility. We point out that log-normal distributions also characterise the patterns of discovery of new places, implying that they are not a simple consequence of the routine of modern life.

Supplementary material from "Evolutionary dynamics of the cryptocurrency market"

The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of

The interplay between activity and attractiveness on random walks in time-varying networks.

100 billion market capitalization in June 2017, after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world, however, a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking, as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here, we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1, 469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and June 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-) exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, the market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction.

Individual mobility and social behaviour: Two sides of the same coin.

The cryptocurrency market surpassed the barrier of

Anticipating cryptocurrency prices using machine learning.

100 billion market capitalization in June 2017,  after months of steady growth. Despite its increasing relevance in the financial world,  a comprehensive analysis of the whole system is still lacking,  as most studies have focused exclusively on the behaviour of one (Bitcoin) or few cryptocurrencies. Here,  we consider the history of the entire market and analyse the behaviour of 1469 cryptocurrencies introduced between April 2013 and May 2017. We reveal that, while new cryptocurrencies appear and disappear continuously and their market capitalization is increasing (super-) exponentially, several statistical properties of the market have been stable for years. These include the number of active cryptocurrencies, market share distribution and the turnover of cryptocurrencies. Adopting an ecological perspective, we show that the so-called neutral model of evolution is able to reproduce a number of key empirical observations, despite its simplicity and the assumption of no selective advantage of one cryptocurrency over another. Our results shed light on the properties of the cryptocurrency market and establish a first formal link between ecological modelling and the study of this growing system. We anticipate they will spark further research in this direction.