Laura Dobor

Climate change increases the drought risk in Central European forests: What are the options for adaptation?

Abstract The paper presents information on the projected drought exposure of Central Europe, describes the anticipated dynamics of the regional forests, and identifies measures facilitating the adaptation of forests to climate change-induced drought risk. On the basis of an ensemble of climate change scenarios we expect substantial drying in southern Slovakia and Hungary, while such trends were found to be less pronounced for the Czech Republic and Austria. In response to these climate trajectories, a change in species composition towards a higher share of drought tolerant species as well as the use of drought resistant provenances are identified as paramount actions in forest adaptation in the region. Adaptation to aggravating climate change may need to use artificial regeneration to enrich local gene pools and increase the drought tolerance of stands. Increasing risks from pests, pathogens and other disturbances are expected as a result of more frequent and severe droughts, underlining the need to put a stronger focus on risk management principles rather than on indicators of productivity in silviculture and forest planning. A consolidation of disturbance monitoring systems and a broader use of pest dynamics and hazard rating models are paramount tools to facilitate this adaptation process in forest management. The effectiveness of all the suggested measures needs to be controlled by efficient forest monitoring systems, the consolidation of which seems to be a timely task. Systematic and long-term implementation of the presented measures should increase forest stability and resilience, and further secure the sustainable provision of ecosystem services under climate change. Abstrakt V článku sú prezentované informácie o očakávanom vývoji sucha v oblasti strednej Európy, je opísaná možná dynamika lesov v podmienkach zmeny klímy, a je vypracovaný systém opatrení umožňujúcich adaptáciu lesov na zmenu klímy. Na základe kolekcie scenárov zmeny klímy bol identifikovaný výrazný nárast intenzity sucha v oblastiach južného Slovenska a Maďarska, zatiaľ čo v oblasti Českej republiky a Rakúska bola zmena relatívne nevýrazná. S ohľadom na tento vývoj predstavuje úprava drevinového zloženia smerom k vyššiemu zastúpeniu sucho tolerujúcich drevín a širšiemu využívaniu proveniencií rezistentných voči suchu jedno zo základných adaptačných opatrení. V prípade výrazných zmien klímy narastá význam umelej obnovy, ktorá predstavuje nástroj na zlepšovanie druhovej a genetickej diverzity porastov a zvyšovanie ich tolerancie voči suchu. Narastajúci vplyv škodcov súvisiaci s rastúcim vplyvom sucha a ďalších abiotických činiteľov naznačuje potrebu orientovať pestovanie a hospodársku úpravu lesa viac na manažment rizík ako na maximalizáciu produkcie. Konsolidácia systémov monitoringu škodlivých činiteľov a širšie využívanie modelov dynamiky škodcov a hodnotenia rizík patria medzi ďalšie dôležité opatrenia podporujúce adaptáciu lesov na zmenu klímy. Všetky uvedené opatrenia musia byť podporené informáciami získanými na základe dlhodobého monitoringu lesa, ktorý však vyžaduje urýchlenú konsolidáciu. Systematická a dlhodobá realizácia prezentovaných opatrení podporí stabilitu a rezilienciu lesov a vytvorí predpoklady pre udržateľné poskytovanie ekosystémových služieb a funkcií v podmienkach zmeny klímy.

BioVeL: a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology

BackgroundMaking forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as “Web services”) and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust “in silico” science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited.ResultsBioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on-line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible ‘virtual laboratory’, free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity.ConclusionsOur work shows we can deliver an operational, scalable and flexible Internet-based virtual laboratory to meet new demands for data processing and analysis in biodiversity science and ecology. In particular, we have successfully integrated existing and popular tools and practices from different scientific disciplines to be used in biodiversity and ecological research.

Bridging the gap between climate models and impact studies: the FORESEE Database

Studies on climate change impacts are essential for identifying vulnerabilities and developing adaptation options. However, such studies depend crucially on the availability of reliable climate data. In this study, we introduce the climatological database called FORESEE (Open Database for Climate Change Related Impact Studies in Central Europe), which was developed to support the research of and adaptation to climate change in Central and Eastern Europe: the region where knowledge of possible climate change effects is inadequate. A questionnaire‐based survey was used to specify database structure and content. FORESEE contains the seamless combination of gridded daily observation‐based data (1951–2013) built on the E‐OBS and CRU TS datasets, and a collection of climate projections (2014–2100). The future climate is represented by bias‐corrected meteorological data from 10 regional climate models (RCMs), driven by the A1B emission scenario. These latter data were developed within the frame of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project. Although FORESEE only covers a limited area of Central and Eastern Europe, the methodology of database development, the applied bias correction techniques, and the data dissemination method, can serve as a blueprint for similar initiatives.

Impact of expected climate change on soil water regime under different vegetation conditions

A mathematical model was applied for the Bükk Mountains (Hungary) to evaluate the effects of climate change on soil water balance elements and soil water regime. Model runs using SWAP model were performed for combinations of four distinctive soil types and three land use systems of arable land, grassland, and forest. The temporal variation of soil water regime under changing climatic conditions was examined considering no land cover change occurring in the future. The climate data consisted of the predictions of two regional climate models, the Swiss CLM and the Swedish RCA. The RCA results showed 45% to 50% and the CLM showed 5% to 14% higher future precipitation outlook compared to present conditions. Considering different land use types, the projected number of days with soil moisture deficit was the highest in forest ecosystems for both the upper 50 cm soil layer and the whole soil profile, which could be as high as 61% of days below optimal soil water content range. Our results showed increased water fluxes, especially in deep percolation in far future period and a strong influence of soil properties on the changes in the climate model results, indicating significant long-term effects of climate change on soil water regime.