Laura J. Steinberg

Accounting for meteorological effects in measuring urban ozone levels and trends

Abstract Observed ozone concentrations are valuable indicators of possible health and environmental impacts. However, they are also used to monitor changes and trends in the sources of ozone and of its precursors, and for this purpose the influence of meteorological variables is a confounding factor. This paper examines ozone concentrations and meteorology in the Chicago area. The data are described using least absolute deviations and local regression. The key relationships observed in these analyses are then used to construct a nonlinear regression model relating ozone to meteorology. The model can be used to estimate that part of the trend in ozone levels that cannot be accounted for by trends in meteorology, and to ‘adjust’ observed ozone concentrations for anomalous weather conditions.

Reevaluation of energy use in wheat production in the United States

Energy budgets for agricultural production can be used as building blocks for life-cycle assessments that include agricultural products, and can also serve as a first step toward identifying crop production processes that benefit most from increased efficiency. A general trend toward increased energy efficiency in U.S. agriculture has been reported. For wheat cultivation, in particular, this study updates cradle-to-gate process analyses produced in the seventies and eighties. Input quantities were obtained from official U.S. statistics and other sources and multiplied by calculated or recently published energy coefficients. The total energy input into the production of a kilogram of average U.S. wheat grain is estimated to range from 3.1 to 4.9 MJ/kg, with a best estimate at 3.9 MJ/kg. The dominant contribution is energy embodied in nitrogen fertilizer at 47% of the total energy input, followed by diesel fuel (25%), and smaller contributions such as energy embodied in seed grain, gasoline, electricity, and phosphorus fertilizer. This distribution is reflected in the energy carrier mix, with natural gas dominating (57%), followed by diesel fuel (30%). High variability in energy coefficients masks potential gains in total energy efficiency as compared to earlier, similar U.S. studies. Estimates from an input-output model for several input processes agree well with process analysis results, but the models application can be limited by aggregation issues: Total energy inputs for generic food grain production were lower than wheat fertilizer inputs alone, possibly due to aggregation of diverse products into the food grain sector.

Emerging Issues for Natech Disaster Risk Management in Europe

There is growing concern about the potential effects of natural disaster‐triggered technological (natech) disasters. The chlorine releases in the Czech Republic following the floods that swept across Europe in the summer of 2002 and the multiple hazardous materials releases triggered by the Turkey earthquake of August 1999 were examples which showed the potential danger of a natech disaster occurring near populated areas. However, there is scarce information available on the actual risk of natech disasters and on what communities are doing to prevent or prepare for these types of events in Europe. This paper provides a careful look at how selected countries in Europe are currently addressing natech risk and describes recent natech incidences. Initiatives taken at the European Community (EC) level to address natech risk are also discussed. The paper includes the results of a workshop on natechs held at the Joint Research Center in Ispra, Italy in 2003. The workshop aimed to create awareness of the natech problem, and through guided exercises assess natech hazards and vulnerability to natechs in participating countries. The workshop sessions facilitated the identification of a set of five consensus key strategies for natech risk reduction including emergency planning specific to natechs, education and awareness campaigns, public participation in risk reduction planning, natech planning at industrial facilities, and the use of land use restrictions as a regulatory tool to limit the siting of industrial facilities. The paper concludes with recommendations by the authors, including suggested directions for further research to support natech risk reduction.

Characterization of parameters in mechanistic models: A case study of a PCB fate and transport model

Abstract As a first step in a Bayesian analysis of PCB fate and transport in the upper Hudson River, a joint probability density function for parameters in a simulation model is created. The density function describes the joint probabilities of the following parameters: the anaerobic dechlorination rate constant, the volatilization rate constant, the aerobic biodegradation rate constant, the sedimentation rate, and the contaminated sediment depth. Difficulties in forming this probability density function are shown to result from problems with extrapolating data from the laboratory to the field, non-stationarity and aggregation, extrapolating information and analyses from other sites, and bias due to study design. These difficulties result in a density function characterized by high variances, and imply that predictions from this simulation model, and similarly large fate-and-transport models, are apt to be highly uncertain. Bayesian analysis is proposed as a rigorous mathematical technique for including observational data in density function generation in order to reduce prediction uncertainty.

The Tenure Trap The Vulnerability of Renters to Joint Natural and Technological Disasters

Natural disasters can result in releases of toxic materials that pose a grave threat to populations exposed to them. The authors provide evidence from California and Louisiana to show that in comparison with homeowners, renters are significantly less well prepared to survive a joint naturaland technologicaldisaster without injury. Rentalhousing can be targeted for public awareness and other measures that can improve the preparedness of tenants, but barriers that inhibit progress are substantial. Nevertheless, with a carefully crafted plan of action based on a variety of policy instruments, the tenure trap can be disabled.

Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk-based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.

Comparative analysis of nutrient data in the lower Mississippi River

Abstract As the second phase of a large-scale Tulane University Mississippi River water-quality database project, nutrient data on the lower Mississippi River have been examined for potential differences among sampling agencies, geographic locations and chemically similar nitrogen parameters. These data represent the most comprehensive source of information on nutrients in the Mississippi River available as a single database. Monthly means, grouped by parameter, sampling location and agency, were calculated and compared as paired sets, excluding months where data were not available for both sets. Evaluations using ANOVA indicated few differences among agencies providing nitrogen-compound data, although differences were observed in phosphorus-compound data from different sources. Unfiltered and filtered fractions of nitrate–nitrite were found to be comparable throughout the study area. Spatial examination of the nutrient data indicated few differences in inorganic nitrogen concentrations throughout the study area, but significant variability in total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN). Orthophosphate and total phosphorus concentrations increased through the study area from Arkansas [river miles (RM) 500–810] downstream to St. Francisville (RM 231–315), but with little or no change from Baton Rouge (RM 111–230) to the Gulf of Mexico. Results provide a combined data set from which preliminary calculations of daily nutrient loads in the Mississippi River between 1960 and 1997 were conducted.

Accidental Releases of Hazardous Materials and Relevance to Terrorist Threats at Industrial Facilities

Hazardous material releases, some with serious consequences, are a common occurrence in the U.S. Of late, the hazards posed by releases caused by terrorist attacks or natural disasters have been of particular concern. Although terrorism directed at hazardous material handling industries within the U.S. has not yet resulted in a significant incident, there is much recent experience with serious accidental releases resulting from natural disasters. Case studies are developed from a number of recent natural disasters and severe weather events that resulted in large releases of hazardous materials. These case studies are used to illustrate parallels between the risks posed by hazardous material releases resulting from terrorism and natural disasters; examples include the presence of a dominant mechanism for physical damage, difficult-to-control and unforeseen scenarios of releases, limited specific regulation of the risks, and a complex and difficult response environment. Hence, lessons learned from previous experience with releases during natural disasters can be used to increase the resilience of industrial facilities and to improve the planning for hazardous material response in the face of terror threats. Routes to improve hazardous material industry preparedness for terror attack and natural disasters include physical hardening of facilities and equipment, utilization of passive safety devices, greater consideration of facility layout and siting, application of inherently safer design principles, and additional legislation at local, state or federal levels.

Accidental Hazardous Material Releases With Human Impacts in the United States: Exploration of Geographical Distribution and Temporal Trends

Objective: To investigate the circumstances and geographic and temporal distributions of hazardous material releases and resulting human impacts in the United States. Method: Releases with fatalities, injuries, and evacuations were identified from reports to the National Response Center between 1990 and 2008, correcting for data quality issues identified in previous studies. Results: From more than 550,000 reports, 861 deaths, 16,348 injuries and 741,427 evacuations were identified. Injuries from releases of chemicals at fixed facilities and natural gas from pipelines have decreased whereas evacuations from petroleum releases at fixed facilities have increased. Conclusion: Results confirm recent advances in chemical and pipeline safety and suggest directions for further improvement including targeted training and inspections and adoption of inherently safer design principles.

Geostatistical Modeling and Mapping of Sediment Contaminant Concentrations

This paper demonstrates the application of geostatistical modeling techniques to the quantification of Aroclors and heavy metals in Hudson and Duwamish river sediments, respectively. The objective was to compare models and modeling parameters between contaminants and sites, as well as to investigate a modeling modification that may accomodate curved river segments. Gaussian, exponential and spherical variograms were used to model micro-scale spatial correlations, and ordinary kriging and simple kriging were used as interpolation techniques. The major macro -anisotropy direction paralleled the river flow at both sites. The macro-anisotropy ratio was comparable between Aroclors, but varied between the metals. Comparable results for Aroclors could be due to similar physico - chemical properties governing fate and transport processes. Generally, spherical and exponential variograms fitted the data better than Gaussian variograms at both sites. With the exception of comparable micro-anisotropy parameters between the Aroclors, variogram parameters varied between contaminants and sites. Subdividing curved river segments and modeling the reaches separately did not improve predictions. Expanding the study to other types of water bodies and research into the use of co -kriging promises further insights.