Laura Lee Johnson

Longitudinal Data with Follow-up Truncated by Death: Match the Analysis Method to Research Aims

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from factorizations of the distribution of longitudinal data and survival information. Models are illustrated using cognitive functioning data for older adults. For unconditional models, deaths do not occur, deaths are independent of the longitudinal response, or the unconditional longitudinal response is averaged over the survival distribution. Unconditional models, such as random effects models fit to unbalanced data, may implicitly impute data beyond the time of death. Fully conditional models stratify the longitudinal response trajectory by time of death. Fully conditional models are effective for describing individual trajectories, in terms of either aging (age, or years from baseline) or dying (years from death). Causal models (principal stratification) as currently applied are fully conditional models, since group differences at one timepoint are described for a cohort that will survive past a later timepoint. Partly conditional models summarize the longitudinal response in the dynamic cohort of survivors. Partly conditional models are serial cross-sectional snapshots of the response, reflecting the average response in survivors at a given timepoint rather than individual trajectories. Joint models of survival and longitudinal response describe the evolving health status of the entire cohort. Researchers using longitudinal data should consider which method of accommodating deaths is consistent with research aims, and use analysis methods accordingly.

An Introduction to Survival Analysis

This chapter introduces some commonly used statistical methods for survival time data in medical research. The chapter describes features of survival time data, defines the survival function, and introduces the product-limit estimator for the survival function. Finally, a summary of stratified analysis and Coxs regression analysis are described. The problem of analyzing survival time data is complicated, because the follow-up length is often different for each participant and the event of interest. For survival analysis, main interest focuses on the time taken for some dichotomous event to occur. The stratified logrank test is a useful method for comparing the survival between two treatment groups while accounting for the effects of prognostic factors. The regression coefficients are usually unknown and need to be estimated from the data. It is complex to estimate these regression coefficients. When the sample size is large, the estimate of each regression coefficient follows a normal distribution approximately.

Usefulness of body mass index as a sufficient adiposity measurement for sex hormone concentration associations in postmenopausal women.

Background: Both obesity and sex hormones are known risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer. Although adiposity and sex hormones have been studied in the past, previous reports in postmenopausal women have not been conducted under carefully controlled dietary conditions. In this study, we investigated the usefulness of body mass index (BMI) as a sufficient adiposity measurement to assess associations with sex hormone levels. Methods: This study was conducted as a cross-sectional analysis within the control segment (0 g alcohol group) of a randomized, crossover design, in which 51 postmenopausal women consumed 0 (control), 15 (one drink), and 30 (two drinks) g alcohol (ethanol)/d for 8 weeks each as part of a controlled diet. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scans were administered to the women during the control (0 g alcohol) segment, and a blood sample was drawn at the end of that diet period for hormone analysis. Results: In multivariate analysis (adjusted for age, race, family history of breast cancer, parity, and menarche <12 years), women who were overweight or obese had significantly higher serum concentrations of estradiol, bioavailable estradiol, estrone, and estrone sulfate and lower sex hormone-binding globulin than normal weight women (all P < 0.05). In models adjusted for BMI and the covariates above, none of the dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry adiposity measures added further information (all P > 0.10) for these five analytes beyond that of BMI alone. Conclusions: In this population of postmenopausal women, under carefully controlled dietary conditions, we confirmed previous findings that higher levels of adiposity were associated with higher concentrations of estrogens and lower sex hormone-binding globulin, and we found that the use of the epidemiology-friendly BMI seems sufficient to assess associations with these hormone levels. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2006;15(12):2502–7)

Tai Chi Chuan: Mind-Body Practice or Exercise Intervention? Studying the Benefit for Cancer Survivors

Tai chi chuan (TCC) has been used as a mind-body practice in Asian culture for centuries to improve wellness and reduce stress and has recently received attention by researchers as an exercise intervention. A review of the English literature on research in TCC published from 1989 to 2006 identified 20 prospective, randomized, controlled clinical trials in a number of populations, including elderly participants (7 studies), patients with cardiovascular complications (3 studies), patients with chronic disease (6 studies), and patients who might gain psychological benefit from TCC practice (2 studies). However, only the studies of TCC in the elderly and 2 studies of TCC for cardiovascular disease had adequate designs and size to allow conclusions about the efficacy of TCC. Most (11 studies) were small and provided limited information on the benefit of TCC in the settings tested. There is growing awareness that cancer survivors represent a population with multiple needs related to physical deconditioning, cardiovascular disease risk, and psychological stress. TCC as an intervention may provide benefit to cancer survivors in these multiple areas of need based on its characteristics of combining aspects of meditation and aerobic exercise. However, little research has been conducted to date to determine the benefit of TCC in this population. We propose a model to study the unique characteristics of TCC compared to physical exercise that may highlight characteristic features of this mind-body intervention in cancer survivors.

Measures of adiposity and body fat distribution in relation to serum folate levels in postmenopausal women in a feeding study

Objective:To assess the associations between serum folate concentration and measures of adiposity in postmenopausal women.Design:This study was conducted as a cross-sectional analysis within the control segment of a randomized, crossover trial in which postmenopausal women (n=51) consumed 0 g (control), 15 g (one drink) and 30 g (two drinks) alcohol (ethanol)/day for 8 weeks as part of a controlled diet. Subjects in one treatment arm were crossed-over to another arm after a 2- to 5-week washout period. Body mass index (BMI) was measured, and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) scan administered to the women during the control (0 g alcohol) treatment, and a blood sample from this group was collected at baseline and week 8 of each diet period and analyzed for folate, B12, homocysteine and methylmalonic acid.Setting:This study was conducted at the Beltsville Human Nutrition Research Center, MD, USA.Results:In multivariate analysis, women who were overweight had a 12% lower, and obese women had a 22% lower serum folate concentrations compared to normal weight women (P-trend=0.02). Vitamin B12 also decreased with increasing BMI (P-trend=0.08). Increased BMI, percent body fat, and absolute amounts of central and peripheral fat were all significantly associated with decreased serum folate, but were unrelated to serum B12, homocysteine or methylmalonic acid.Conclusions:Our data show that adiposity is associated with lower serum folate levels in postmenopausal women. With obesity at epidemic proportions, these data, if confirmed by prospective or randomized controlled studies, have important public health implications.

Body Mass Index, percent body fat, and regional body fat distribution in relation to leptin concentrations in healthy, non-smoking postmenopausal women in a feeding study.

BackgroundThe relationship between BMI and leptin has been studied extensively in the past, but previous reports in postmenopausal women have not been conducted under carefully controlled dietary conditions of weight maintenance using precise measures of body fat distribution. The aim of the present study was to examine the association between serum leptin concentration and adiposity as estimated by BMI and dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) measures (percent body fat, central and peripheral fat, and lean mass) in postmenopausal women.MethodsThis study was conducted as a cross-sectional analysis within the control segment of a randomized, crossover trial in which postmenopausal women (n = 51) consumed 0 (control), 15 (one drink), and 30 (two drinks) g alcohol (ethanol)/d for 8 weeks as part of a controlled diet. BMIs were determined and DEXA scans were administered to the women during the 0 g alcohol treatment, and a blood sample was collected at baseline and week 8 of each study period for leptin analysis.Results and discussionIn multivariate analysis, women who were overweight (BMI > 25 to ≤ 30 kg/m2) had a 2-fold increase, and obese women (BMI > 30 kg/m2) had more than a 3-fold increase in serum leptin concentrations compared to normal weight (BMI ≤25 kg/m2) women. When the models for the different measures of adiposity were assessed by multiple R2, models which included percent body fat explained the highest proportion (approximately 80%) of the serum leptin variance.ConclusionUnder carefully controlled dietary conditions, we confirm that higher levels of adiposity were associated with higher concentrations of serum leptin. It appears that percent body fat in postmenopausal women may be the best adiposity-related predictor of serum leptin.

The effects of moderate alcohol supplementation on estrone sulfate and DHEAS in postmenopausal women in a controlled feeding study

BackgroundWe have demonstrated that moderate alcohol consumption (15 g/d, 30 g/d) for 8 weeks resulted in significantly increased levels of serum estrone sulfate and DHEAS in 51 postmenopausal women in a randomized, placebo-controlled trial. We now report on the relationships between serum estrone sulfate and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) levels after 4 weeks of moderate alcohol supplementation, and compare the results to the 8 weeks data to elucidate time-to-effect differences.MethodsPostmenopausal women (n = 51) consumed 0 (placebo), 15 (1 drink), and 30 (2 drinks) g alcohol (ethanol)/ day for 8 weeks as part of a controlled diet in a randomized crossover design. Blood samples were drawn at baseline, at 4 weeks and at 8 weeks. Changes in estrone sulfate and DHEAS levels from placebo to 15 g and 30 g alcohol per day were estimated using linear mixed models.Results and DiscussionAt week 4, compared to the placebo, estrone sulfate increased an average 6.9% (P = 0.24) when the women consumed 15 g of alcohol per day, and 22.2% (P = 0.0006) when they consumed 30 g alcohol per day. DHEAS concentrations also increased significantly by an average of 8.0% (P < 0.0001) on 15 g of alcohol per day and 9.2% (P < 0.0001) when 30 g alcohol was consumed per day. Trend tests across doses for both estrone sulfate (P = 0.0006) and DHEAS (P < 0.0001) were significant. We found no significant differences between the absolute levels of serum estrone sulfate at week 4 versus week 8 (P = 0.32) across all doses. However, absolute DHEAS levels increased from week 4 to week 8 (P < 0.0001) at all three dose levels.ConclusionsThese data indicate that the hormonal effects due to moderate alcohol consumption are seen early, within 4 weeks of initiation of ingestion.

Overexpression of CDC25B and LAMC2 mRNA and protein in esophageal squamous cell carcinomas and premalignant lesions in subjects from a high-risk population in China.

Molecular events associated with the initiation and progression of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remain poorly understood but likely hold the key to effective early detection approaches for this almost invariably fatal cancer. CDC25B and LAMC2 are two promising early detection candidates emerging from new molecular studies of ESCC. To further elucidate the role of these two genes in esophageal carcinogenesis, we did a series of studies to (a) confirm RNA overexpression, (b) establish the prevalence of protein overexpression, (c) relate protein overexpression to survival, and (d) explore their potential as early detection biomarkers. Results of these studies indicated that CDC25B mRNA was overexpressed (≥2-fold overexpression in tumor compared with normal) in 64% of the 73 ESCC cases evaluated, whereas LAMC2 mRNA was overexpressed in 89% of cases. CDC25B protein expression was categorized as positive in 59% (144 of 243) of ESCC cases on a tumor tissue microarray, and nonnegative LAMC2 patterns of protein expression were observed in 82% (225 of 275) of cases. Multivariate-adjusted proportional hazard regression models showed no association between CDC25B protein expression score and risk of death [hazard ratio (HR) for each unit increase in expression score, 1.00; P = 0.90]; however, several of the LAMC2 protein expression patterns strongly predicted survival. Using the cytoplasmic pattern as the reference (the pattern with the lowest mortality), cases with a diffuse pattern had a 254% increased risk of death (HR, 3.52; P = 0.007), cases with no LAMC2 expression had a 169% increased risk of death (HR, 2.69; P = 0.009), and cases with a peripheral pattern had a 130% greater risk of death (HR, 2.30; P = 0.02). CDC25B protein expression scores in subjects with esophageal biopsies diagnosed as normal (n = 35), dysplastic (n = 23), or ESCC (n = 32) increased significantly with morphologic progression. For LAMC2, all normal and dysplastic patients had a continuous pattern of protein expression, whereas all ESCCs showed alternative, noncontinuous patterns. This series of studies showed that both CDC25B and LAMC2 overexpress RNA and protein in a significant majority of ESCC cases. The strong relation of LAMC2 pattern of protein expression to survival suggests a role in prognosis, whereas the association of CDC25B with morphologic progression indicates a potential role as an early detection marker. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2008;17(6):1424–35)

Gene Expression Differences in Normal Esophageal Mucosa Associated with Regression and Progression of Mild and Moderate Squamous Dysplasia in a High-Risk Chinese Population

A randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled 2 x 2 factorial chemoprevention trial was conducted in Linxian, China to assess the effects of selenomethionine and celecoxib on the natural history of esophageal squamous dysplasia. Results from this study indicated that asymptomatic adults with mild dysplasia were more likely to show an improvement when treated with selenomethionine compared with placebo (P = 0.02). Prompted by this finding, we examined the molecular profiles associated with regression and progression of dysplastic lesions in normal mucosa from 29 individuals, a subset of the Linxian cohort, using the Affymetrix U133A chip. Twenty differentially expressed genes were associated with regression and 129 were associated with progression when we compared the change in gene expression over time. Genes associated with immune response (n = 15), cell cycle (n = 15), metabolism (n = 15), calcium transport or calcium ion activity (n = 10), regulation of transcription (n = 9), signal transduction (n = 7), cytoskeleton and microtubules (n = 5), nucleotide processing and biosynthesis (n = 4), G-coupled signaling (n = 4), and apoptosis (n = 3) were present in the list of 149 genes. Using the Expression Analysis Systematic Explorer pathway analysis program, only the immune response pathway was significantly overrepresented among these 149 genes. Individuals whose lesions regressed seemed to have higher expression of genes associated with immune stimulation, such as antigen presentation, survival of T cells, and T-cell activation (HLA-DRA, HLA-DPA1, HLA-DBQ1, CD58, and FCER1A). In contrast, individuals whose lesions progressed had higher expression of genes involved in immune suppression and inflammation (CNR2, NFATC4, NFRKB, MBP, INHBB, CMKLR1, CRP, ORMS, SERPINA7, and SERPINA1). These data suggest that local and systemic immune responses may influence the natural history of esophageal squamous dysplasia.

Gene-Specific Methylation and Subsequent Risk of Colorectal Adenomas among Participants of the Polyp Prevention Trial

Hypermethylation of tumor suppressor and other regulatory genes is thought to play an important role in colorectal neoplasia and tumorigenesis. This study examined the association between gene methylation status in baseline adenomas and subsequent adenoma recurrence in a randomized dietary intervention study, the Polyp Prevention Trial. The methylation status of four genes [CDKN2A (p16), PTGS2 (COX2), ESR1 (ER-α), and PGR(PR)] was determined by MethyLight in 284 baseline adenomas from 196 trial participants. The association of gene methylation with recurrence was determined using logistic regression models. Gene methylation was evaluated as percent of methylated reference, a measure of methylation of each gene relative to control DNA. ESR1methylation status was inversely associated with adenoma recurrence, odds ratio = 0.36 (95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.88; P = 0.02) for the highest compared with the lowest quartile of the ESR1methylation. Further, ESR1 methylation status was inversely associated with the recurrence of multiple adenomas, advanced adenomas, and the recurrence of adenomas in the proximal but not distal bowel. No association between CDKN2A, PTGS2, or PGR methylation and adenoma recurrence was observed. These data suggest that ESR1 methylation may play a role in subsequent adenoma recurrence.