Laura López-Hoffman

Ecosystem services across borders: a framework for transboundary conservation policy

International political borders rarely coincide with natural ecological boundaries. Because neighboring countries often share ecosystems and species, they also share ecosystem services. For example, the United States and Mexico share the provisioning service of groundwater provided by the All-American Canal in California; the regulating service of agave crop pollination by long-nosed bats; and the aesthetic value of the North American monarch butterfly, a cultural service. We use the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) to elucidate how drivers in one country can affect ecosystem services and human well-being in other countries. We suggest that the concept of ecosystem services, as articulated by the MA, could be used as an organizing principle for transboundary conservation, because it meets many of the criteria for successful transboundary policy. It would frame conservation in terms of mutual interests between countries, consider a diversity of stakeholders, and provide a means for linking multiple services and assessing tradeoffs between uses of services.

Moving across the border: modeling migratory bat populations

The migration of animals across long distances and between multiple habitats presents a major challenge for conservation. For the migratory Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), these challenges include identifying and protecting migratory routes and critical roosts in two countries, the United States and Mexico. Knowledge and conservation of bat migratory routes is critical in the face of increasing threats from climate change and wind turbines that might decrease migratory survival. We employ a new modeling approach for bat migration, network modeling, to simulate migratory routes between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding habitat in northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. We use the model to identify key migratory routes and the roosts of greatest conservation value to the overall population. We measure roost importance by the degree to which the overall bat population declined when the roost was removed from the model. The major migratory routes—those with the greatest number of migrants—were between winter habitat in southern Mexico and summer breeding roosts in Texas and the northern Mexican states of Sonora and Nuevo Leon. The summer breeding roosts in Texas, Sonora, and Nuevo Leon were the most important for maintaining population numbers and network structure - these are also the largest roosts. This modeling approach contributes to conservation efforts by identifying the most influential areas for bat populations, and can be used to as a tool to improve our understanding of bat migration for other species. We anticipate this approach will help direct coordination of habitat protection across borders.

Salinity and light interactively affect neotropical mangrove seedlings at the leaf and whole plant levels

We have studied the interactive effects of salinity and light on Avicennia germinans mangrove seedlings in greenhouse and field experiments. We hypothesized that net photosynthesis, growth, and survivorship rates should increase more with an increase in light availability for plants growing at low salinity than for those growing at high salinity. This hypothesis was supported by our results for net photosynthesis and growth. Net daily photosynthesis did increase more with increasing light for low-salinity plants than for high-salinity plants. Stomatal conductance, leaf-level transpiration, and internal CO2 concentrations were lower at high than at low salinity. At high light, the ratio of leaf respiration to assimilation was 2.5 times greater at high than at low salinity. Stomatal limitations and increased respiratory costs may explain why, at high salinity, seedlings did not respond to increased light availability with increased net photosynthesis. Seedling mass and growth rates increased more with increasing light availability at low than at high salinity. Ratios of root mass to leaf mass were higher at high salinity, suggesting that either water or nutrient limitations may have limited seedling growth at high salinity in response to increasing light. The interactive effects of salinity and light on seedling size and growth rates observed in the greenhouse were robust in the field, despite the presence of other factors in the field—such as inundation, nutrient gradients, and herbivory. In the field, seedling survivorship was higher at low than at high salinity and increased with light availability. Interestingly, the positive effect of light on seedling survivorship was stronger at high salinity, indicating that growth and survivorship rates are decoupled. In general, this study demonstrates that environmental effects at the leaf-level also influence whole plant growth in mangroves.

When Ecosystem Services Crash: Preparing for Big, Fast, Patchy Climate Change

Assessments of adaptation options generally focus on incremental, homogeneous ecosystem responses to climate even though climate change impacts can be big, fast, and patchy across a region. Regional drought-induced tree die-off in semiarid woodlands highlights how an ecosystem crash fundamentally alters most ecosystem services and poses management challenges. Building on previous research showing how choice of location is linked to adaptive capacity and vulnerability, we developed a framework showing how the options for retaining desired ecosystem services in the face of sudden crashes depend on how portable the service is and whether the stakeholder is flexible with regard to the location where they receive their services. Stakeholders using portable services, or stakeholders who can move to other locations to obtain services, may be more resilient to ecosystem crashes. Our framework suggests that entering into cooperative networks with regionally distributed stakeholders is key to building resilience to big, fast, patchy crashes.

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus )

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Market forces and technological substitutes cause fluctuations in the value of bat pest-control services for cotton

Critics of the market-based, ecosystem services approach to biodiversity conservation worry that volatile market conditions and technological substitutes will diminish the value of ecosystem services and obviate the “economic benefits” arguments for conservation. To explore the effects of market forces and substitutes on service values, we assessed how the value of the pest-control services provided by Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana) to cotton production in the southwestern U.S. has changed over time. We calculated service values each year from 1990 through 2008 by estimating the value of avoided crop damage and the reduced social and private costs of insecticide use in the presence of bats. Over this period, the ecosystem service value declined by 79% (

A trans‐national monarch butterfly population model and implications for regional conservation priorities

19.09 million U.S. dollars) due to the introduction and widespread adoption of Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton transgenically modified to express its own pesticide, falling global cotton prices and the reduction in the number of hectares in the U.S. planted with cotton. Our results demonstrate that fluctuations in market conditions can cause temporal variation in ecosystem service values even when ecosystem function – in this case bat population numbers – is held constant. Evidence is accumulating, however, of the evolution of pest resistance to Bt cotton, suggesting that the value of bat pest-control services may increase again. This gives rise to an economic option value argument for conserving Mexican free-tailed bat populations. We anticipate that these results will spur discussion about the role of ecosystem services in biodiversity conservation in general, and bat conservation in particular.

Beef and Beyond: Paying for Ecosystem Services on Western US Rangelands

1. The monarch has undergone considerable population declines over the past decade, and the governments of Mexico, Canada, and the United States have agreed to work together to conserve the species.

Operationalizing the telecoupling framework for migratory species using the spatial subsidies approach to examine ecosystem services provided by Mexican free-tailed bats

Beef and Beyond: Paying for Ecosystem Services on Western US Rangelands DOI:10.2458/azu_rangelands_v33i5_goldstein

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

National Science Foundation [DEB-1118975, DEB-1518359]; U.S. Geological Surveys John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis working group, Animal Migration and Spatial Subsidies: Establishing a Framework for Conservation Markets