Laura Schmitt Olabisi

TMDL implementation in agricultural landscapes: A communicative and systemic approach

Increasingly, total maximum daily load (TMDL) limits are being defined for agricultural watersheds. Reductions in non-point source pollution are often needed to meet TMDL limits, and improvements in management of annual crops appear insufficient to achieve the necessary reductions. Increased adoption of perennial crops and other changes in agricultural land use also appear necessary, but face major barriers. We outline a novel strategy that aims to create new economic opportunities for land-owners and other stakeholders and thereby to attract their voluntary participation in land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Our strategy has two key elements. First, focused efforts are needed to create new economic enterprises that capitalize on the productive potential of multifunctional agriculture (MFA). MFA seeks to produce a wide range of goods and ecosystem services by well-designed deployment of annual and perennial crops across agricultural landscapes and watersheds; new revenue from MFA may substantially finance land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Second, efforts to capitalize on MFA should use a novel methodology, the Communicative/Systemic Approach (C/SA). C/SA uses an integrative GIS-based spatial modeling framework for systematically assessing tradeoffs and synergies in design and evaluation of multifunctional agricultural landscapes, closely linked to deliberation and design processes by which multiple stakeholders can collaboratively create appropriate and acceptable MFA landscape designs. We anticipate that application of C/SA will strongly accelerate TMDL implementation, by aligning the interests of multiple stakeholders whose active support is needed to change agricultural land use and thereby meet TMDL goals.

Purpose, processes, partnerships, and products: four Ps to advance participatory socio‐environmental modeling

Including stakeholders in environmental model building and analysis is an increasingly popular approach to understanding ecological change. This is because stakeholders often hold valuable knowledge about socio-environmental dynamics and collaborative forms of modeling produce important boundary objects used to collectively reason about environmental problems. Although the number of participatory modeling (PM) case studies and the number of researchers adopting these approaches has grown in recent years, the lack of standardized reporting and limited reproducibility have prevented PMs establishment and advancement as a cohesive field of study. We suggest a four-dimensional framework (4P) that includes reporting on dimensions of (1) the Purpose for selecting a PM approach (the why); (2) the Process by which the public was involved in model building or evaluation (the how); (3) the Partnerships formed (the who); and (4) the Products that resulted from these efforts (the what). We highlight four case studies that use common PM software-based approaches (fuzzy cognitive mapping, agent-based modeling, system dynamics, and participatory geospatial modeling) to understand human-environment interactions and the consequences of ecological changes, including bushmeat hunting in Tanzania and Cameroon, agricultural production and deforestation in Zambia, and groundwater management in India. We demonstrate how standardizing communication about PM case studies can lead to innovation and new insights about model-based reasoning in support of ecological policy development. We suggest that our 4P framework and reporting approach provides a way for new hypotheses to be identified and tested in the growing field of PM.

Uncovering the Root Causes of Soil Erosion in the Philippines

Soil erosion is a serious threat to the sustainability of agricultural systems in the Philippines, as in many intensively cultivated regions of the developing world, yet the ultimate causes of erosion are complex and poorly understood. If erosion is to be addressed adequately by farmers and policymakers, the root causes must be dealt with. Most approaches to erosion in the literature and in practice hypothesize that erosion may be adequately controlled at the farm level through the use of appropriate technologies. In this study, farmers and key stakeholders with knowledge of the upland agricultural system in the Philippines pointed to a more systemic understanding of the root causes of erosion, which implicated poverty and landlessness as primary drivers. The technical knowledge of erosion researchers must be brought together with the systemic understanding of agricultural workers “on the ground” if a sustainable soil management strategy is to be created.

Understanding perennial wheat adoption as a transformative technology: evidence from the literature and farmers

Perennial grain crops are an example of a ‘transformative technology,’ in which the functionality and science of the technology differ in a fundamental manner from conventional grain crops. A review of the literature indicates that the motivation for farmer adoption of transformative technologies is complex and poorly understood. At the same time, many studies have found concern and awareness about environmental issues to be significantly and positively correlated with the adoption of no-till agriculture, organic farming and agroforestry. Building on these insights, we conducted an ex ante study of perennial wheat adoption among 11 farmers from Michigan and Ohio. Perennial wheat is not yet commercially available, so a semi-structured interview format was chosen to allow for in-depth discussions of the crops potential characteristics and uses. Consistent with the literature on transformative technology adoption, farmers who approached us to learn more about perennial grains described soil and environmental quality as their primary motivations for doing so. Farmers suggested a total of ten different uses for perennial wheat, only one of which was mentioned specifically by interviewers. This diversity of proposed uses implied a wide range of criteria for adoption. A striking result was that the ability of perennial wheat to compete with annual wheat on the basis of yield, a focus of researchers, was brought up by only one of the interviewees, as many farmers proposed perennial wheat as a means of solving a problem for which no other crop provided an adequate solution, often by planting perennial wheat on an under-used or marginal area of the farm. This is suggestive that interacting with farmers could alter priorities in perennial grain improvement, as has occurred in other radically transformative agriculture technologies.

Translating community narratives into semi-quantitative models to understand the dynamics of socio-environmental crises

Abstract Acute socio-environmental crises often expose systemic problems that are linked by failures in management, environmental, or social systems. If recovery efforts are to address these systemic problems, these issues and the concerns of those impacted by the crisis need to be clearly articulated, rationally represented, and communicated to those responsible for the recovery. Although participatory approaches to crisis recovery often use environmental modeling, explicit ways in which stakeholders’ narratives and experiences can be translated into computer-based models for scenario analysis are not readily available to modelers or decision-makers. We present an approach to translating community narratives about crisis events using a free Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping software called Mental Modeler ( www.mentalmodeler.org ). We applied this process to the recent water crisis in Flint, Michigan, and demonstrate how participatory modeling can give communities a way to structure their thoughts, develop recovery actions, and communicate with those in charge of crisis recovery efforts.

Climate-induced migration: using mental models to explore aggregate and individual decision-making

The US Dust Bowl of the 1930s (a prolong period of drought experienced in the United States accompanied by severe sand storms) is often described as an abnormal event. However, climate change is likely to increase the frequency and impact of similar occurrences. Because of this, a growing number of scholars have begun to examine multiple facets of climate-induced migration from various disciplinary traditions. Specifically, scholars have called for continued research into individual decision-making processes. Responding to this call, we construct a mental model from historical interviews of those who migrated to California during the US Dust Bowl. Our model provides insight into the migration process with a unique focus on individual decision-making processes of migrants.

Mental models of food security in rural Mali

Recent estimates indicate that 12% of the global population is likely to have suffered from chronic hunger, due to lack of enough food for an active and healthy life. West Africa, specifically across the Sahel countries, is acutely vulnerable to food insecurity concerns. Mail is emblematic of this problem with approximately 4.6 million citizens considered food insecure. Food security poses formidable challenges. Studies have shown that in order to understand food insecurity and identify steps for effective intervention, there is a need to apprehend the food systems and food in/security in a holistic way beyond production alone. Understanding the behavioral aspects of food security is critical in the African context where agriculture, while oriented toward basic subsistence, remains embedded in social system including the social dynamics of households, extended families, and communities. This exploratory work focuses on developing a nuanced understanding of food security and adaptive behaviors to current challenges to food security at the household level with a distinct focus on inter- and intra-family behavioral dynamics in rural, southern Mali. Using mental models methodology, we developed two influence diagrams and a set of sub-models that represent rural households’ mental models of food security under traditional conditions and under conditions of external pressures. These models suggest that food security in rural Mali is at considerable risk due to the influence of external challenges, such as climate change, on traditional behaviors and a lack of easily accessible corresponding behavioral adaptations.

Using participatory modeling processes to identify sources of climate risk in West Africa

Participatory modeling has been widely recognized in recent years as a powerful tool for dealing with risk and uncertainty. By incorporating multiple perspectives into the structure of a model, we hypothesize that sources of risk can be identified and analyzed more comprehensively compared to traditional ‘expert-driven’ models. However, one of the weaknesses of a participatory modeling process is that it is typically not feasible to involve more than a few dozen people in model creation, and valuable perspectives on sources of risk may therefore be absent. We sought to address this weakness by conducting parallel participatory modeling processes in three countries in West Africa with similar climates and smallholder agricultural systems, but widely differing political and cultural contexts. Stakeholders involved in the agricultural sector in Ghana, Mali, and Nigeria participated in either a scenario planning process or a causal loop diagramming process, in which they were asked about drivers of agricultural productivity and food security, and sources of risk, including climate risk, between the present and mid-century (2035–2050). Participants in all three workshops identified both direct and indirect sources of climate risk, as they interact with other critical drivers of agricultural systems change, such as water availability, political investment in agriculture, and land availability. We conclude that participatory systems methods are a valuable addition to the suite of methodologies for analyzing climate risk and that scientists and policy-makers would do well to consider dynamic interactions between drivers of risk when assessing the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

Food security in Africa: a cross-scale, empirical investigation using structural equation modeling

Despite consistent gains in global agricultural productivity in the last 50 years, lack of food security persists in many regions of the world. Addressing this issue is especially pertinent in Africa where 39 of the nearly five dozen nations most at risk of food insecurity are located. We draw from interdisciplinary research to develop an empirical model that outlines the four interconnected aspects of food security—availability, access, utilization and stability. Given the complexity of this issue, we develop a model that considers agricultural, socio-political, and economic factors as drivers of food security and its manifestations, related in a complex system of relations that includes both direct and indirect paths. We use structural equation modeling with latent variables to specify a model that seeks to determine the primary drivers of food security over 55 years in Africa, West Africa as a region, and for a group of 5 West African countries: Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Empirical results reveal the critical importance of availability and accessibility for mitigating food insecurity.

Development and testing a diagnostic capacity tool for improving socio-ecological system governance

The capacity to sustainably govern complex socio-ecological systems (SES) has been identified as a necessary but daunting task by SES scholars, resource stewards and stakeholders. This research sought to inform the question: What are determinant capacities and functional linkages that can be incorporated into diagnostic tools for analysts seeking to improve sustainable socio-economic system SES governance? Literature was used to identify and translate determinant capacities and functional linkages into a quantifiable metric of governance quality. The tool was developed from ecological, business, governance and decision science literature. This tool recognizes the dynamic and systemic linkages between the resources and the social systems that use and govern them for improving systems thinking and SES outcomes. The tool was tested to determine its ability to capture perceived characteristics of governance quality and problem management using Michigan’s cleanup and redevelopment program. The results of this research indicated that the exploratory tool was reliable and valid. This research contributes to the evolving body of SES frameworks, specifically the study of individual and organizational capacities for improved SES outcomes. The implications of this research suggest participatory network-based governance with higher levels of resource exchange, in the form of interdependency, trust, diplomacy and reciprocity, aligns with practitioners’ perceptions of improved program performance. Further, while some capacities and related findings of this research may be context specific, concepts associated with the development and testing of this diagnostic tool, such as the use of systems thinking, participatory network-based governance, and related competencies, may have more universal application.