Laura Serlenga

Higher Education and Equality of Opportunity in Italy

This paper proposes a definition of equality of educational opportunities. Then, it develops a comprehensive model that allows to test for the existence of equality of opportunity in a given distribution and to rank distributions according to equality of opportunity. Finally, it provides an empirical analysis of equality of opportunity for higher education in Italy.

Intentions to Return of Clandestine Migrants: The Perverse Effect of Illegality on Skills

In this paper we show that highly skilled clandestine migrants are more likely to return home than migrants with low or no skills when illegality causes “skill waste”, i.e. when illegality reduces the rate of return of individual capabilities (i.e. skills and human capital) in the country of destination. In a simple life-cycle framework, illegality is modeled as a tax on skills that reduces the opportunity cost of returning home particularly for the highly skilled. This proposition is tested on a sample of apprehended immigrants that unlawfully crossed the Italian borders in 2003. The estimation confirms that the intention to return to the home country is more likely for highly skilled illegal immigrants. The empirical results of this paper attenuate the common wisdom on the return decisions of legal migrants, according to which low-skill individuals are more likely to go back home (mainly because of negative self-selection).

Globalisation and technological convergence in the EU

We employ a two-step approach in investigating the dynamic transmission chan- nels under which globalization factors foster technical efficiency by combining a dynamic efficiency analysis in the stochastic frontier framework, and a time series approach based on VAR and spectral analysis. Using the dataset of the 18 EU countries over 1970-2004, we find that both import and FDI are significant factors in spreading efficiency externalities and thus accelerating technology catch-up in the EU. In particular, the impacts of the import are more prominent in the short-run while those of FDI play a more important role over the longer-run. Furthermore, the impacts of the import are pro-cyclical only in the short-run whereas those of FDI are pro-cyclical mostly over the medium- to the long-run. This evidence is broadly consistent with the sample observation that the recent slowdown of the EU productivity has been closely related to the corresponding FDI decline espe- cially after 2000. Hence, any protection-oriented policy will be likely to be more detrimental for the EU.

Inequality of Opportunity in Europe: Is There a Role for Institutions? ☆

Abstract This paper studies the cross-country differences in conventional measures of inequality of opportunity in Europe in the space of individual disposable incomes. Exploiting two recent waves of the EUSILC database reporting information on family background (2005 and 2011), we provide estimates of inequality of opportunity in about 30 European countries for two sufficiently distant data points, allowing a check of consistency for country rankings. In addition, we exploit two observations available for most of the countries to explore the relationship between many institutional dimensions and inequality of opportunity, finding evidence of negative correlation with educational expenditure (especially at the pre-primary level) and passive labour market policies.

Is Globalization Driving Efficiency? A Threshold Stochastic Frontier Panel Data Modeling Approach

Recently, Mastromarco, Serlenga and Shin (2010) propose a two-step approach to examine dynamic transmission mechanism under which globalization factors fos- ter technology efficiency. In this paper, we extend the MSS model by combining panel threshold regression technique advanced by Hansen (1999). This threshold stochastic frontier panel data model enables us to analyze regime-specific stochas- tic frontiers and complex time-varying patterns of technical efficiencies in a robust manner. Using a dataset of 44 countries over 1970-2007, we find that income elas- ticities of labour and capital and time-varying common efficiencies are substantially different under superior and inferior frontiers. Capital and labour inputs are more productive under superior frontier. More importantly, common efficiencies have steadily increased under superior frontier, but technical efficiency has monotoni- cally decreased for low income countries, supporting the so-called club convergence hypothesis. Furthermore, the VAR-based impulse response analyses suggest that openness factors through FDI and trade help the countries improve production technology and efficiency position relative to the frontier only after the country has reached a certain level of development.

Upward and Downward Bias When Measuring Inequality of Opportunity

We show that, when measuring inequality of opportunity with survey data, scholars incur two types of biases. A well-known downward-bias, due to partial observability of circumstances that affect individual outcome, and an upward bias, which depends on the econometric method used and the quality of the available data. We suggest a simple criterion to balance between the two sources of bias based on cross validation. An empirical application, based on 26 European countries, shows the usefulness of our method.

Multilateral Resistance and the Euro Effects on Trade Flows

Recently, an investigation of unobserved and time-varying multilateral resistance and omitted trade determinants has assumed a prominent role in order to precisely measure the Euro effects on trade. We implement two methodologies: the factor-based gravity model by Serlenga and Shin (The Euro Effect on Intra-EU Trade: Evidence from the Cross Sectionally Dependent Panel Gravity Models, Mimeo, University of York, 2013) and the spatial-based techniques by Behrens et al. (J Appl Econ 27:773–794, 2012), both of which allow trade flows and error terms to be cross-sectionally correlated. Applying these approaches to the dataset over 1960–2008 for 190 country-pairs of 14 EU and six non-EU OECD countries, we find that the Euro impact estimated by the factor-based model amounts to only 4–5 %, far less than the 20 % estimated by the spatial-based model. The cross-section dependency test results also confirm that the factor-based model is more appropriate in accommodating correlation between regressors, and unobserved individual and time effects. Overall we may conclude that the trade-creating effects of the Euro should be viewed in the proper historical and multilateral perspective rather than in terms of the formation of a monetary union as an isolated event.

Modelling in the Presence of Cross-sectional Error Dependence

Given the growing availability of big datasets which contain information on multiple dimensions and following the recent research trend on multidimensional modelling, we develop three-dimensional panel data models with threeway error components that allow for strong cross-sectional dependence (CSD) through unobserved heterogeneous global factors, and propose appropriate consistent estimation procedures. We also discuss the extent of CSD in 3D models and provide a diagnostic test for cross-sectional dependence. We provide the extensions to unbalanced panels and 4D models. The validity of the proposed approach is confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation results. We also demonstrate the empirical usefulness through the application to the 3D panel gravity model of the intra-EU trade flows.

'Intentions to Return of Clandestine Migrants: The Perverse Effect of Illegality on Skills' - A Reply to the Note

The purpose of this reply is twofold. First, we discuss the major point raised by Stark and Lukasz (Review of Development Economics 17, no. 1 (2013):156–62), i.e. the fact that a framework which explicitly considers asymmetric information is correct and would imply a reversal of our finding. Although, we acknowledge that the mechanism highlighted by the authors is an alternative explanation to return decisions, we argue that the suggested framework is unsuitable in the specific context analyzed in our paper (as well as most real‐world situations). Instead, the assumptions underlying our simple theoretical model are strictly linked to data availability in order to perform a sensible empirical analysis. Second, we present a slightly different version of the model proposed in the original article that overcomes possible inconsistencies on the saving behavior of the migrants. Although all the computations are shown in one of the articles cited in our published paper, we now prefer to show them fully in this issue of the Review. The conclusions of our theoretical model do not change. Hence, we conclude that the empirical evidence of the original article - which is the main contribution of our work - is supported by a robust framework.