Lauren J. Gregoire

Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses

The last deglaciation (21 to 7 thousand years ago) was punctuated by several abrupt meltwater pulses, which sometimes caused noticeable climate change. Around 14 thousand years ago, meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A), the largest of these events, produced a sea level rise of 14–18 metres over 350 years. Although this enormous surge of water certainly originated from retreating ice sheets, there is no consensus on the geographical source or underlying physical mechanisms governing the rapid sea level rise. Here we present an ice-sheet modelling simulation in which the separation of the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets in North America produces a meltwater pulse corresponding to MWP-1A. Another meltwater pulse is produced when the Labrador and Baffin ice domes around Hudson Bay separate, which could be associated with the ‘8,200-year’ event, the most pronounced abrupt climate event of the past nine thousand years. For both modelled pulses, the saddle between the two ice domes becomes subject to surface melting because of a general surface lowering caused by climate warming. The melting then rapidly accelerates as the saddle between the two domes gets lower, producing nine metres of sea level rise over 500 years. This mechanism of an ice ‘saddle collapse’ probably explains MWP-1A and the 8,200-year event and sheds light on the consequences of these events on climate.

The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

Geological data for the Early Eocene (56–47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data–model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called ‘equable climate problem’. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not ‘prove’ that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7°C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26°C±0.69°C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise

Abstract Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14–18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions of 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3–4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5–6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.

Laurentide‐Cordilleran Ice Sheet saddle collapse as a contribution to meltwater pulse 1A

The source or sources of meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A) at ~14.5 ka, recorded at widely distributed sites as a sea-level rise of ~10-20 m in less than 500 years, is uncertain. A recent ice modeling study of North America and Greenland (Gregoire et al., 2012) has suggested that the collapse of an ice saddle between the Laurentide and Cordilleran Ice Sheets, with a eustatic sea-level equivalent (ESLE) of ~10 m, may have been the dominant contributor to MWP-1A. To test this suggestion, we predict gravitationally self consistent sea-level changes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present-day associated with the Gregoire et al. (2012) ice model. We find that a combination of the saddle collapse scenario and melting outside North America and Greenland with an ESLE of ~3 m yields sea-level changes across MWP-1A that are consistent with far-field sea-level records at Barbados, Tahiti and Sunda Shelf.

Ocean mixing and ice-sheet control of seawater 234U/238U during the last deglaciation.

Uranium in the deep sea The ratio of 234U to 238U in seawater underlies modern marine uranium-thorium geochronology, but it is difficult to establish the ratio precisely. Chen et al. report two 234U/238U records derived from deep-sea corals (see the Perspective by Yokoyama and Esat). The records reveal a number of important similarities to and differences from existing records of the past 30,000 years. Higher values during the most recent 10,000 years than during earlier glaciated conditions may reflect enhanced subglacial melting during deglaciation. Science, this issue p. 626; see also p. 550 The 234U/238U ratios of deep-sea corals illuminate glacially driven changes of the past 30,000 years. Seawater 234U/238U provides global-scale information about continental weathering and is vital for marine uranium-series geochronology. Existing evidence supports an increase in 234U/238U since the last glacial period, but the timing and amplitude of its variability has been poorly constrained. Here we report two seawater 234U/238U records based on well-preserved deep-sea corals from the low-latitude Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Atlantic 234U/238U started to increase before major sea-level rise and overshot the modern value by 3 per mil during the early deglaciation. Deglacial 234U/238U in the Pacific converged with that in the Atlantic after the abrupt resumption of Atlantic meridional overturning. We suggest that ocean mixing and early deglacial release of excess 234U from enhanced subglacial melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets have driven the observed 234U/238U evolution.

Collapse of the North American ice saddle 14,500 years ago caused widespread cooling and reduced ocean overturning circulation

Collapse of ice sheets can cause significant sea level rise and widespread climate change. We examine the climatic response to meltwater generated by the collapse of the Cordilleran-Laurentide ice saddle (North America) ~14.5 thousand years ago (ka) using a high-resolution drainage model coupled to an ocean-atmosphere-vegetation general circulation model. Equivalent to 7.26 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years, the meltwater caused a 6 sverdrup weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling of 1–5°C. The greatest cooling is in the Atlantic sector high latitudes during Boreal winter (by 5–10°C), but there is also strong summer warming of 1–3°C over eastern North America. Following recent suggestions that the saddle collapse was triggered by the Bolling warming event at ~14.7–14.5 ka, we conclude that this robust submillennial mechanism may have initiated the end of the warming and/or the Older Dryas cooling through a forced AMOC weakening.

The relative contribution of orbital forcing and greenhouse gases to the North American deglaciation

Understanding what drove Northern Hemisphere ice sheet melt during the last deglaciation (21–7 ka) can help constrain how sensitive contemporary ice sheets are to greenhouse gas (GHGs) changes. The roles of orbital forcing and GHGs in the deglaciation have previously been modeled but not yet quantified. Here for the first time we calculate the relative effect of these forcings on the North American deglaciation by driving a dynamical ice sheet model (GLIMMER-CISM) with a set of unaccelerated transient deglacial simulations with a full primitive equation-based ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (FAMOUS). We find that by 9 ka, orbital forcing has caused 50% of the deglaciation, GHG 30%, and the interaction between the two 20%. Orbital forcing starts affecting the ice volume at 19 ka, 2000 years before CO2 starts increasing in our experiments, a delay which partly controls their relative effect.

Coherent deglacial changes in western Atlantic Ocean circulation

Abrupt climate changes in the past have been attributed to variations in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength. However, the exact timing and magnitude of past AMOC shifts remain elusive, which continues to limit our understanding of the driving mechanisms of such climate variability. Here we show a consistent signal of the 231Pa/230Th proxy that reveals a spatially coherent picture of western Atlantic circulation changes over the last deglaciation, during abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions. At the onset of deglaciation, we observe an early slowdown of circulation in the western Atlantic from around 19 to 16.5 thousand years ago (ka), consistent with the timing of accelerated Eurasian ice melting. The subsequent weakened AMOC state persists for over a millennium (~16.5–15 ka), during which time there is substantial ice rafting from the Laurentide ice sheet. This timing indicates a role for melting ice in driving a two-step AMOC slowdown, with a positive feedback sustaining continued iceberg calving and climate change during Heinrich Stadial 1.The exact timing and magnitude of past changes in Atlantic Ocean circulation, and its relation to abrupt climate changes remains elusive. Here, the authors show a spatially coherent picture of western Atlantic circulation changes, which reveals a two-step AMOC slowdown at the beginning of the deglacial period.

Global peatland initiation driven by regionally asynchronous warming

Significance Peatlands are organic-rich wetlands that have acted as globally important carbon sinks since the Last Glacial Maximum. However, the drivers of peat initiation are poorly understood. Using a catalog of radiocarbon dates combined with simulations of past climates, we demonstrate that peat initiation in the deglaciated landscapes of North America, northern Europe, and Patagonia was driven primarily by warming growing seasons rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which was not glaciated, climatic wetting was required to convert existing ecosystems into peatlands. Our findings explain the genesis of one of the world’s most important ecosystem types and its potentially fragile, distributed carbon store, with implications for understanding potential changes in peatland distribution in response to future warming. Widespread establishment of peatlands since the Last Glacial Maximum represents the activation of a globally important carbon sink, but the drivers of peat initiation are unclear. The role of climate in peat initiation is particularly poorly understood. We used a general circulation model to simulate local changes in climate during the initiation of 1,097 peatlands around the world. We find that peat initiation in deglaciated landscapes in both hemispheres was driven primarily by warming growing seasons, likely through enhanced plant productivity, rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which remained ice-free throughout the last glacial period, the initiation of the world’s largest peatland complex was globally unique in that it was triggered by an increase in effective precipitation that inhibited soil respiration and allowed wetland plant communities to establish. Peat initiation in the tropics was only weakly related to climate change, and appears to have been driven primarily by nonclimatic mechanisms such as waterlogging due to tectonic subsidence. Our findings shed light on the genesis and Holocene climate space of one of the world’s most carbon-dense ecosystem types, with implications for understanding trajectories of ecological change under changing future climates.

Acceleration of Northern Ice Sheet Melt Induces AMOC Slowdown and Northern Cooling in Simulations of the Early Last Deglaciation

The cause of a rapid change in Atlantic Ocean circulation and northern cooling at the onset of Heinrich Stadial 1 ~18.5 ka is unclear. Previous studies have simulated the event using ice sheet and/or iceberg meltwater forcing, but these idealized freshwater fluxes have been unrealistically large. Here, we use a different approach, driving a high‐resolution drainage network model with a recent time‐resolved global paleo ice sheet reconstruction to generate a realistic meltwater forcing. We input this flux to the HadCM3 climate model without adjusting the timing or amplitude and find that an acceleration in northern ice sheet melting (up to ~7.5 m kyr‾¹ global mean sea level rise equivalent) triggers a 20% reduction in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The simulated pattern of ocean circulation and climate change matches an array of palaeoclimate and ocean circulation reconstructions for the onset of Heinrich Stadial 1, both in terms of rates and magnitude of change. This is achieved with a meltwater flux that matches constraints on sea level changes and ice sheet evolution around 19‐18 ka. Since the rates of melting are similar to those projected for Greenland by 2200, constraining the melt rates and magnitude of climate change during Heinrich Stadial 1 would provide an important test of climate model sensitivity to future ice sheet melt.