Laurie Hendrickx

Effects of Species’ Characteristics on Nongovernmental Organizations’ Attitudes toward Species Conservation Policy:

The authors examined the willingness of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) to support public species conservation measures as a function of species characteristics, NGOs’interests, and interests harmed by the measures. In an experiment, 39 policy makers from nature conservation, mobility and recreation, and agriculture NGOs read 16 illustrated descriptions of indigenous animal species, which systematically varied across taxon, relative size, and rarity. The representatives rated the importance of species’ continued existence to their NGOs and their NGO’s support for hypothetical conservation measures for the species. The measures were either described as (a) harmful to the interests of representatives’own NGOs or (b) harmful to the interests of other NGOs. The judgments regarding the importance of species’ continued existence and support for conservation measures were found to differ across representatives’NGOs and to depend on taxon and relative size. Support for the measures also depended on the interests harmed (own versus another’s).

EFFECTS OF FREQUENCY AND SCENARIO INFORMATION ON THE EVALUATION OF LARGE-SCALE RISKS

Abstract Risk judgments may be based on relative frequency information (RFI) about past accidents and/or on cognitive scenario information (CSI) about possible future accidents. A preceding study revealed that CSI dominates RFI when subjects assess the riskiness (accident probability) of small-scale, personally controllable activities. Our current hypothesis is that RFI is more important when risk judgments concern large-scale, personally less controllable activities. Ninety-six subjects read 16 descriptions of decision problems involving large-scale risks, offering a choice between a risky and a safe alternative. A paragraph containing both RFI and CSI was inserted into each description. Within subjects, RFI varied in the height of the reported accident frequency and in its statistical quality; CSI varied in the number of suggested accident scenarios and in their concreteness. Between two groups of subjects, the suggested personal controllability of the risky activities differed. It was found that subjects base their risk judgments and risky decisions on both types of risk information but that RFI plays a more prominent role when the risks concern large-scale, uncontrollable activities. Earlier findings on specific frequency and scenario information effects were replicated. Personality differences in “locus of control” were found relevant.

Temporal factors in resource dilemmas

The conflict between present and future consumption lies at the heart of resource dilemmas (RDs), yet the role of time has received little attention in this research area. Emphasis was on factors related to the social rather than the temporal conflict inherent in an RD. We propose a model that deals explicitly with the temporal distribution of outcomes. The model combines three basic elements: a simple algebraic model, representing the RDs payoff structure; a growth function, reflecting the autonomous growth of the resource pool; and a discount function, describing how the temporal distance of outcomes affects their perceived value. The model provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the role of temporal factors in RD situations. It enables us to identify four relevant temporal RD characteristics (peoples discount rates, their time horizon, the inter-trial delay, and the pools growth rate) and to describe how these would be expected to affect peoples tendency to cooperate. Theoretical, methodological and practical implications of the work are briefly discussed.

An Experimental Study of the Effectiveness of Computer-Programmed Decision Support

Currently there exists a growing interest in computer-programmed decision support. A wide variety of programs have been and are being designed to improve the quality of decision making. One category of decision support programs is based on models from multi-attribute (expected) utility theory. These programs embody procedural rather than substantive criteria for making good decisions.