Lawrence A. Mysak

Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: a model intercomparison

We present results from an intercomparison of 11 different climate models of intermediate complexity, in which the North Atlantic Ocean was subjected to slowly varying changes in freshwater input. All models show a characteristic hysteresis response of the thermohaline circulation to the freshwater forcing; which can be explained by Stommels salt advection feedback. The width of the hysteresis curves varies between 0.2 and 0.5 Sv in the models. Major differences are found in the location of present-day climate on the hysteresis diagram. In seven of the models, present-day climate for standard parameter choices is found in the bi-stable regime, in four models this climate is in the mono-stable regime. The proximity of the present-day climate to the Stommel bifurcation point, beyond which North Atlantic Deep Water formation cannot be sustained, varies from less than 0.1 Sv to over 0.5 Sv.

A Zonally Averaged, Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Paleoclimate Studies

Abstract A zonally averaged ocean model for the thermohaline circulation is coupled to a zonally averaged, one-layer energy balance model of the atmosphere to form a climate model for paleoclimate studies. The emphasis of the coupled model is on the oceans thermohaline circulation in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans. Each basin is individually resolved, and they are connected by the Southern Ocean through which mass, heat, and salt are exchanged. Under present-day conditions, the global conveyor belt is simulated: deep water is formed in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean, whereas both Pacific and Indian oceans show broad upwelling. Latitude-depth structures of modeled temperature and salinity fields, as well as depth-integrated meridional transports of heat and freshwater, compare well with estimates from observations when wind stress is included. Ekman cells are present in the upper ocean and contribute substantially to the meridional fluxes at low latitudes, bringing them to close agree...

Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled Variability in the South Atlantic

Abstract The climate variability of the South Atlantic region is determined from 40 yr (1953–92) of Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and the singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis methods. The EOF method is applied to each field separately, whereas the SVD method is applied to both fields simultaneously. The significance of the atmosphere–ocean interaction is revealed by a strong resemblance between individual (EOF) and coupled (SVD) modes of SST and SLP. The three leading modes of coupled variability on interannual and interdecadal timescales are discussed in some detail. The first coupled mode, which accounts for 63% of the total square covariance, represents a 14–16-yr period oscillation in the strength of the subtropical anticyclone, accompanied by fluctuations of a north–south dipole structure in the SST. The atmosphere–ocean coupling is strongest during the southern summe...

Sea-ice anomalies observed in the Greenland and Labrador seas during 1901–1984 and their relation to an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle

Two independent ice data sets from the Greenland and Labrador Seas have been analyzed for the purpose of characterizing interannual and decadal time scale sea-ice extent anomalies during this century. Sea-ice concentration data for the 1953–1984 period revealed the presence of a large positive anomaly in the Greenland Sea during the 1960s which coincided with the “great salinity anomaly”, an upper-ocean low-salinity water mass that was observed to travel cyclonically around the northern North Atlantic during 1968–1982. This ice anomaly as well as several smaller ones propagated into the Labrador Sea and then across to the Labrador and east Newfoundland coast, over a period of 3 to 5 years. A complex empirical orthogonal function analysis of the same data also confirmed this propagation phenomenon. An inverse relation between sea-ice and salinity anomalies in the Greenland-Labrador Sea region was also generally found. An analysis of spring and summer ice-limit data obtained from Danish Meteorological Institute charts for the period 1901–1956 indicated the presence of heavy ice conditions (i.e., positive ice anomalies) in the Greenland Sea during 1902–1920 and in the late 1940s, and generally negative ice anomalies during the 1920s and 1930s. Only limited evidence of the propagation of Greenland Sea ice anomalies into the Labrador Sea was observed, however, probably because the data were from the ice-melt seasons. On the other hand, several large ice anomalies in the Greenland Sea occurred 2–3 years after large runoffs (in the early 1930s and the late 1940s) from northern Canada into the western Arctic Ocean. Similarly, a large runoff into the Arctic during 1964–1966 preceded the large Greenland Sea ice anomaly of the 1960s. These facts, together with recent evidence of ‘climatic jumps’ in the Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation, suggest the existence of an interdecadal self-sustained climate cycle in the Arctic. In the Greenland Sea, this cycle is characterized by a state of large sea-ice extent overlying an upper layer of cool, relatively fresh water that does not convectively overturn, which alternates every 10–15 years with a state of small sea-ice extent and relatively warm saline surface water that frequently overturns.

Decadal climate oscillations in the Arctic: A new feedback loop for atmosphere‐ice‐ocean interactions

A combined complex empirical orthogonal function analysis of 40 years of annual sea ice concentration (SIC) and winter sea level pressure (SLP) data reveals the existence of an approximately 10-year climate cycle in the Arctic and subarctic. The cycle is characterized by a clockwise propagating signal in the SIC anomalies and a standing oscillation in the SLP anomalies, the latter being linked to a fluctuation between the two phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. To describe the formation and evolution of the SIC and SLP anomalies associated with the cycle, a simple feedback loop is proposed.

Is There a Dominant Timescale of Natural Climate Variability in the Arctic

Abstract A frequency-domain singular value decomposition performed jointly on century-long (1903–94) records of North Atlantic sector sea ice concentration and sea level pressure poleward of 40°N reveals that fluctuations on the interdecadal and quasi-decadal timescales account for a large fraction of the natural climate variability in the Arctic. Four dominant signals, with periods of about 6–7, 9–10, 16–20, and 30–50 yr, are isolated and analyzed. These signals account for about 60%–70% of the variance in their respective frequency bands. All of them appear in the monthly (year-round) data. However, the 9–10-yr oscillation especially stands out as a winter phenomenon. Ice variability in the Greenland, Barents, and Labrador Seas is then linked to coherent atmospheric variations and certain oceanic processes. The Greenland Sea ice variability is largely due to fluctuations in ice export through Fram Strait and to the local wind forcing during winter. It is proposed that variability in the Fram Strait ice ...

The Differences between Early and Midwinter Atmospheric Responses to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Northwest Atlantic

Abstract Using an atmospheric global spectral model, it is shown that the winter atmosphere in the midlatitudes is capable of reacting to prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northwest Atlantic with two very different responses. The nature of the response is determined by the climatological conditions of the winter regime. Experiments are performed using either the perpetual November or January conditions with or without the prescribed SST anomalies. Warm SST anomalies in November result in a highly significant anomalous ridge downstream over the Atlantic with a nearly equivalent barotropic structure; in January, the response is a statistically less significant trough. The presence of the SST anomalies also causes a northward (southward) shift of the Atlantic storm track in the November (January) cases. A diagnostic analysis of the anomalous heat advection in the simulations reveals that in the January cases, the surface heating is offset primarily by the strong horizontal cold advect...

Arctic Sea‐Ice extent and anomalies, 1953–1984

Abstract A study is presented of the seasonal and interannual variability of Arctic sea‐ice extent over the 32‐year period 1953–84. The data set used consists of monthly sea‐ice concentration values given on a 1°‐latitude grid and represents a 7‐year extension of the 25‐year data set analysed by Walsh and Johnson (1979). By focussing attention on the variability in seven distinct subregions that circumscribe the polar region, a number of interesting spatial patterns emerge in the regional seasonal cycles and anomalies of ice coverage. For example, the time‐scale of the smoothed anomaly fluctuations varies from a 4–6 year cycle in the western Arctic (e.g. the Beaufort Sea) to a decadal one in the eastern Arctic (e.g. the Barents Sea). Also, in agreement with earlier studies, a significant out‐of‐phase relationship was found between the 25‐month smoothed anomalies in the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea region and the Greenland Sea. It is proposed that this behaviour is related to atmospheric pressure anomalies ass...

Modeling Sea Ice as a Granular Material, Including the Dilatancy Effect

Abstract A dynamic sea ice model based on granular material rheology is presented. The sea ice model is coupled to both a mixed layer ocean model and a one-layer thermodynamic atmospheric model, which allows for an ice albedo feedback. Land is represented by a 6-m thick layer with a constant base temperature. A 10-year integration including both thermodynamic and dynamic effects and incorporating prescribed climatological wind stress and ocean current data was performed in order for the model to reach a stable periodic seasonal cycle. The commonly observed lead complexes, along which sliding and opening of adjacent ice floes occur in the Arctic sea ice cover, are well reproduced in this simulation. In particular, shear lines extending from the western Canadian Archipelago toward the central Arctic, often observed in winter satellite images, are present. The ice edge is well positioned both in winter and summer using this thermodynamically coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere model. The results also yield a sea ic...

The anomalous sea‐ice extent in Hudson bay, Baffin bay and the Labrador sea during three simultaneous NAO and ENSO episodes

Abstract The nature of the sea‐ice extent in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea associated with the three strong simultaneous NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and ENSO (El Nino‐Southern Oscillation) episodes of 1972/73, 1982/83 and 1991/92 is investigated. During the first year of the 1972/73 episode, when positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies occurred in the eastern tropical Pacific from January 1972 to February 1973 and the Icelandic Low substantially deepened in winter 1973, there were heavy ice conditions (large positive sea‐ice extent anomalies) in the study region and negative SST anomalies in the Labrador Sea and northwestern North Atlantic Ocean, north of 50°N. The anomalous ice conditions are attributed to the coincident large‐scale negative surface air temperature (SAT) and positive northerly wind anomalies in the region. Ten years later, during 1982/83, the strongest ENSO event of the past century occurred, and extremely large positive sea‐ice extent anomalies persisted in t...