Lawrence E. Cohen

Structural Covariates of Homicide Rates: Are There Any Invariances Across Time and Social Space?

This study demonstrate that the empirical literature on the structural convariates of homicide rates contains inconsistent findings across different time periods and different geographical units. This apparent variance of findings may be due to statistical or methodological artifacts of particular studies, such as different time periods covered, units of analysis, samples, model specification, and problems of statistical analysis and inference. A baseline regression model using 11 structural covariates is estimated for cities, metropolitan areas, and states in 1960, 1970, and 1980. The empirical estimates of this model exhibit instability because of high levels of collinearity among several regressors. Principal components analysis is applied to simplify the dimensionally of the structural covariate space. Reestimation of the regression model then indicates that the apparent inconsistencies across time and social space are greatly reduced. The theoretical significance of the findings for substantive theories of violent crime are discussed.

Social Inequality and Predatory Criminal Victimization: An Exposition and Test of a Formal Theory

This study systematically tests a formal theory of how certain dimensions of social stratification--income, race, and age--relate to risk of predatory criminal victimization. An opportunity theory of criminal victimization is proposed, focusing on the mediating role played by five risk factors: exposure, guardianship, proximity to potential offenders, attractiveness of potential targets, and definitional properties of specific crimes themselves. Propositions are derived pertaining to the bivariate and multivariate-partial (main) effects expected from the theory and tested in analyses based on a representative sample of the U.S. population for the crimes of assault, burglary, and personal larceny. These data indicate that the relationship between the dimensions of social stratification and the offenses studied here is complex, and that, other things being equal, those usually thought to be most vulnerable economically and socially--the poor, the nonwhite, the old--are not the most likely victims of crime. Race has little direct effect on victimization risk, while age is inversely related to each type of crime at both the bivariate and multivariate levels of analyses. The findings are largely consistent with the proposed theory. (abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 1981. Copyright

Human ecology and crime: A routine activity approach

Prior explanations of the distributions of crime have tended to emphasize the criminal intentions of people without considering adequately the circumstances in which criminal acts occur. This paper examines how community structure generates these circumstances and applies Amos Hawleys human ecological theory in treating criminal acts as routine activities which feed upon other routine activities. For example, we consider how married women in the labor force, persons living alone, and lightweight durable goods provide offenders with circumstances favorable for carrying out certain illegal acts. We examine in particular how directcontact predatory violations require the convergence in space and time of offenders, suitable targets,and the absence of effective guardians.Various trends in the social structure can alter crime rates by affecting the likelihood of this convergence, without necessarily requiring changes in the criminal inclinations of individuals.

Property Crime Rates in the United States: A Macrodynamic Analysis, 1947-1977; With Ex Ante Forecasts for the Mid-1980s

This paper presents several macrodynamic social indicator models of post-World War II trends in robbery, burglary, and automobile theft rates for the United States. A theory of the ways in wich changes in criminal opportunity affect these Index Crime property crime rates is deveoped. Definitions and postulates are presented from which we derive a main theorem which states that, other things being equal, a decrease in the density of the population in physical locations that are normally sites of primary groups should lead to an increase in criminal opportunities and hence in property crime rates. Corollaries to the main theorem are presented and tested after operationalization of relevant independent and control variables such as the residential population density ratio, the unemployment rate, age structure, total consumer expenditures, and automobiles per capita. Stochastic difference equations, used to evaluate the theory,indicate that the models implied by the theory exhibit good statistical fit to the recorded property crime rates in question over the 26-year estimation period, 1947-72. In addition, these models provide reasonably accurate expost forecasts of observed annual property crime rates over the five-year forecast period, 1973 through 1977. The paper concludes with a discussion of ex ante forecasted equilibrium levels of the three property crime rates for the mid-1980s implied by the estimated models. The forecasts indicate that the robbery and automobile theft rates should drop00 substantially in the 1980s from their recent levels, whereas the burglary rate may continue to grow or at least drop less.

Age structure and crime: symmetry versus asymmetry and the projection of crime rates through the 1990s

This paper asks whether decreases in the proportion of the U.S. population in high crime-prone ages in recent years have produced decreases in crime rates which correspond approximately, but in an inverse direction, to the increases observed when the baby boomers reached the high crime-prone ages in the 1960s and 1970s. We examine age distributions of arrests for murder and motor vehicle theft and then specify and estimate structural-equation models of the time trajectories in annual rates of these crimes for the post-World War II period. With these models, we test the hypothesis that the relationship of crime to age composition is symmetric and infer that it cannot be rejected. We also find that simple models that contain effects of trends in the age structure, business cycles, trends in criminal opportunity, and the rate of imprisonment can account for most of the variance in annual rates of homicide and motor vehicle theft from 1946 through 1984. We discuss some implications of our findings for forecasting U.S. crime rates for the remainder of this century and for theories of the macrodynamics of crime causation. (abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 1987. Copyright

Residential Burglary in the United States: Life-Style and Demographic Factors Associated With the Probability of Victimization

This study both ascertains the characteristics of individuals and their life styles that are differentially related to risk of residential burglary and tests a hypothesis that accounts for certain discrepant findings reported in previous studies of burglary victimization. Using Goodmans log-linear technique to analyze (1975-76) Na tional Crime Survey data, we find that 2,133 of 54,343 households in the sample were burglarized in a twelve-month reference period. The following types of persons headed households with greater than average odds of burglary victimization: (1) central city residents, (2) the young, (3) persons with incomes higher or lower than average, (4) nonwhites, and (5) persons whose homes are unoccupied relatively often. The types of persons heading households least likely to be burglarized were the following: (1) older citizens, (2) persons residing outside the central city, (3) citizens in middle-income categories, and (4) persons whose homes are occupied relatively often. In general, the data support Hindelangs hypothesis that differences in the findings of previous burglary studies on variations in the burglary rate for whites across income categories may be due to different sampling procedures.

Crime as Strategy: Testing an Evolutionary Ecological Theory of Expropriative Crime

This article presents a refined specification of Cohen and Machaleks general evolutionary ecological theory of expropriative crime and results of tests employing two complementary approaches: (1) the development of a game-theoretic model that mathematically tests the logical adequacy of the theorys fundamental assumptions and (2) the conduct of computer simulation experiments to analyze the models behavior and test its consistency with novel hypotheses suggested by the theory. Mathematical analysis indicates that the assumptions are logically consistent. Experiments generally confirm the theorys hypotheses, but indicate that several modifications are necessary. Additional theoretical insights obtained from the simulation experiments are also discussed.

The nature of crime

The classical social theorist Emile Durkheim proposed the counterintuitive thesis that crime is beneficial for society because it provokes punishment, which enhances social solidarity. His logic, however, is blemished by a reified view of society that leads to group-selectionist thinking and a teleological account of the causes of crime. Reconceptualization of the relationship between crime and punishment in terms of evolutionary game theory, however, suggests that crime (cheating) may confer benefits on cooperating individuals by promoting stability in their patterns of cooperation.

Prison Overcrowding and Disciplinary Problems: An Analysis of the Texas Prison System

Data on prison overcrowding and disciplinary rates are examined. Trends for the total system, as well as individual institutions within the Texas Department of Corrections are presented. This is followed by analysis of data from individual inmates. Both assault and total disciplinary rates are found to be a function of the age of the inmate population rather than overcrowding. This is consistent with findings from the Federal Bureau of Prisons as well as data from English prisons (Nacci, Teitelbaum & Prather, 1977; Farrington & Nuttall, 1980). Although prison overcrowding may be an important factor in the overall quality of prison life, it is inappropriate to conclude that it has much influence on either the total disciplinary or the assault rates in prisons.

Desisting from Crime: Continuity and Change in Long-term Crime Patterns of Serious Chronic Offenders

1. Looking Forward 2. Crime Over the Life-Course: the Empirical Implications of Three Theories 3. Review and Hypotheses 4. The California Youth Authority 5. Data and Methods 6. Descriptive Summary of the Data 7. Age and Crime among Latent Classes of Serious Youthful Offenders 8. On the Relationship of Past to Subsequent Criminal Activity 9. Looking Backward and Forward Appendices