Lawrence LeDuc

Opinion change and voting behaviour in referendums

Abstract. Voters in a referendum obtain information and derive voting cues from a variety of sources. Some of these, such as political parties or ideological orientations, are similar to those also found to be influential in elections. Others can be quite different. In some referendums, the issue may be entirely new and unfamiliar to many voters, initiating a ‘learning’ or ‘cue–taking’ process specific to the campaign itself. In referendum campaigns, parties may be internally divided and sometimes send conflicting signals to their electorates. As a result, voting behaviour in referendums often exhibits greater volatility than is found in elections. In the ten papers included in this Special Issue of EJPR, we focus on the process of opinion formation and change which occurred in a number of European, North American and Australia/New Zealand referendums held under a variety of different institutional and political conditions. In this essay, I argue that there are three distinctive patterns of opinion formation and reversal that tend to occur in referendum campaigns, each of which has significant consequences both for voting choice and for referendum outcomes.

Referendum Voting: Attitudes and Behaviour in the 1992 Constitutional Referendum

Referendums are rare events in most parliamentary democracies, and when they do occur they present an analytical puzzle. Are they such unusual events that they fall outside of the theoretical frameworks familiar to students of elections? Or, even though they enter political life infrequently, can they be understood as something not entirely foreign to our thinking about electoral politics? Here, we argue that voting in referendums such as the constitutional referendum of October 26, 1992 is driven by many of the same factors that are present in elections—parties, leaders, issues, a campaign timetable, the interplay between long- and short-term forces and the dynamic of the campaign itself. In spite of their unique features, referendums can be understood in terms of models of voting behaviour familiar to students of elections in Canada and elsewhere. But, devoid of some of the long-term partisan and social anchors which play a role in elections, their outcome is even more dependent on the short-term elements of the campaign. As such, referendums are subject to greater volatility and uncertainty than that typically found in ordinary parliamentary elections.

Sovereignty, leadership and voting in the Quebec referendums

Abstract Long and short-term factors can both be important in voting in referendums, as in elections. In the 1980 and 1995 referendums on Quebec sovereignty, parties and leaders were clearly identified with different sides of the question, and affected voter decision-making, particularly that taking place during the campaigns. It follows that referendum campaigns can be extremely important in affecting the outcome, and that referendum outcomes are not easily predictable in advance.

Saving the Pound or Voting for Europe? Expectations for Referendums on the Constitution and the Euro

Abstract Tony Blairs U‐turn in April 2004 on the issue of holding a referendum on the new EU constitution means that British voters can anticipate the prospect of at least two future referendums on major European issues – the vote on the constitution taking its place in the electoral queue with the long promised referendum on the Euro.1 Together with Britain, at least eight other EU member countries, including Spain, France and The Netherlands, will also hold (or have already held) referendums on the new constitution.2 Thus, the two future British referendums, along with a number of similar votes in other countries, will provide students of electoral behavior with unparalleled new opportunities to assess the role which referendums are increasingly coming to play in modern democratic political life.

Canada's constitutional referendum of 1992: A ‘great big no’

Abstract It was perhaps Pierre Trudeau who first signalled the coming defeat of the package of constitutional proposals known as the ‘Charlottetown Accord’ in the referendum held on 26 October 1992. Speaking in Montreal about midway through the campaign, the former prime minister pronounced the agreement a ‘mess’ that deserved ‘a great big NO’. Shortly afterwards, support for the agreement declined in most polls, and the momentum of the campaign began to shift strongly towards the ‘no’ side. As Canadians in six of the ten provinces voted to reject this delicately balanced package of compromises, they also brought to a sudden end Canadas seemingly endless search for a resolution to its constitutional impasse.

A compendium of academic survey studies of elections around the world, update 1

Abstract The number of survey studies of elections has grown so rapidly over the past 20 years that it is difficult simply to keep track of them, even with the growth of national archives and international organizations of archives. To assist researchers in monitoring and accessing this enormous set of resources, we gathered a list of such studies and published it in ‘A Compendium of Academic Survey Studies of Elections Around the World’, Electoral Studies , August 1985, pp. 159–174. After six years of increasing numbers of elections and election studies, it is time for an update. The scope of the compendium was explained in the first compilation. The only change is that we have included surveys from Hungary and the Soviet Union in the hope that they provide coverage of the first of a long series of regularly contested elections. For a number of countries, we have included studies prior to 1985 because they were not available to us at the time of the first listing. Accessibility of the data was also discussed previously. Readers should consult the original compendium for details. Information contained in the Compendium is nearly self-explanatory. Details are in the original.

Performance of the Electoral System in Recent Canadian and British Elections: Advancing the Case for Electoral Reform

Canada, India, New Zealand and of course the U.K. itself are among the relatively few democratic countries of the world which continue to employ the Single Member District (SMD), First Past the Post (FPTP) system of elections exclusively and in undiluted form. Once considered the model for the conduct of democratic elections, the inadequacies of the British method of elections have become increasingly evident in recent years, particularly in countries where questions of representation are complex ones and/or where the ability of established political institutions to survive periods of considerable stress may depend in part on the perceived legitimacy of the electoral system. While many countries have adapted both of the SMD or FPTP principles to their needs, or have abandoned the concepts altogether in favour of a system based on Proportional Representation (PR), Canada is one country which has throughout its history resisted any change in its national electoral system. This attachment to its British political traditions has been a costly one, as problems of representation have tended to compound many of the linguistic and regional stresses of the Canadian federation.

Voting and Direct Democracy

In some jurisdictions, citizens have the opportunity to cast a vote on issues rather than only for political parties or candidates. This article considers the factors that shape voting behavior in a referendum or other type of direct vote on issues, examining participation, voter decision making, and the implications of direct issue votes for the health of democracy more generally. The various forms and institutions of direct democracy are considered, as well as the dynamics of initiative and referendum campaigns, the sources of campaign information, and the impact of information and predispositions on opinion formation and voting decisions. Four models of voter decision making are examined, and their relative utility in explaining the outcome of direct issue votes is evaluated.