Lea Schneider

Revising midlatitude summer temperatures back to A.D. 600 based on a wood density network

Annually resolved and millennium-long reconstructions of large-scale temperature variability are primarily composed of tree ring width (TRW) chronologies. Changes in ring width, however, have recently been shown to bias the ratio between low- and high-frequency signals. To overcome limitations in capturing the full spectrum of past temperature variability, we present a network of 15 maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies distributed across the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Independent subsets of continental-scale records consistently reveal high MXD before 1580 and after 1910, with below average values between these periods. Reconstructed extratropical summer temperatures reflect not only these long-term trends but also distinct cooling pulses after large volcanic eruptions. In contrast to TRW-dominated reconstructions, this MXD-based record indicates a delayed onset of the Little Ice Age by almost two centuries. The reduced memory inherent in MXD is likely responsible for the rapid recovery from volcanic-induced cooling in the fourteenth century and the continuation of warmer temperatures until ~1600.

Tree-Ring Amplification of the Early Nineteenth-Century Summer Cooling in Central Europe

Annually resolved and absolutely dated tree-ring chronologies are the most important proxy archives to reconstruct climate variability over centuries to millennia. However, the suitability of tree- ...

DETECTING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS BY DESIGNED BREAK-INDICATOR SATURATION

Abstract: We present a methodology for detecting structural breaks at any point in time-series regression models using an indicator saturation approach. Building on recent developments in econometric model selection for more variables than observations, we saturate a regression model with a full set of designed break functions. By selecting over these break functions using an extended general-to-specific algorithm, we obtain unbiased estimates of the break date and magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the approximate properties of the approach. We assess the methodology by detecting volcanic eruptions in a time series of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature spanning roughly 1200 years, derived from a fully-coupled global climate model simulation. Our technique demonstrates that historic volcanic eruptions can be statistically detected without prior knowledge of their occurrence or magnitude- and hence may prove useful for estimating the past impact of volcanic events using proxy-reconstructions of hemispheric or global mean temperature, leading to an improved understanding of the effect of stratospheric aerosols on temperatures. The break detection procedure can be applied to evaluate policy impacts as well as act as a robust forecasting device.

Ecological and climatological signals in tree-ring width and density chronologies along a latitudinal boreal transect

ABSTRACT Shifts in the climate sensitivity of trees throughout the twentieth century might indicate climate change effects in the boreal forest ecosystem. We here evaluated such potential changes by analyzing six tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies from northern, central and southern boreal forests in Finland (60°N–69°N). Besides latitudinal effects, differing micro-sites (lakeshore and inland) were considered to evaluate the influence of ground water access on twentieth-century tree-ring formation and climate sensitivity. Overall, the boreal MXD chronologies appeared less affected by micro-site conditions compared to the TRW chronologies. Along the boreal transect, mean growth rates decrease with increasing latitude, but the ratio of earlywood-to-latewood (∼70%/∼30%) remains stable. However, latewood is slightly denser at the dry inland micro-sites. The correlations with climate data showed that TRW and MXD at all sites are positively related with summer temperature. The MXD chronologies are also negatively correlated with precipitation, a feature that is largely missing in TRW. A recent trend toward wetter and cloudier conditions in the study region coincides with a shift of the MXD signal from a distinct temperature limitation toward an additional sensitivity to precipitation, which in turn stimulated the trees’ competition for sunlight.