Leah C. Katzelnick

The Potential for Respiratory Droplet–Transmissible A/H5N1 Influenza Virus to Evolve in a Mammalian Host

Some natural influenza viruses need only three amino acid substitutions to acquire airborne transmissibility between mammals. Avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses pose a pandemic threat. As few as five amino acid substitutions, or four with reassortment, might be sufficient for mammal-to-mammal transmission through respiratory droplets. From surveillance data, we found that two of these substitutions are common in A/H5N1 viruses, and thus, some viruses might require only three additional substitutions to become transmissible via respiratory droplets between mammals. We used a mathematical model of within-host virus evolution to study factors that could increase and decrease the probability of the remaining substitutions evolving after the virus has infected a mammalian host. These factors, combined with the presence of some of these substitutions in circulating strains, make a virus evolving in nature a potentially serious threat. These results highlight critical areas in which more data are needed for assessing, and potentially averting, this threat.

Global spread of dengue virus types: Mapping the 70 year history

Highlights • The geography of type-specific global DENV circulation has not been well described.• We map the global distribution and co-circulation of each DENV type from 1943 to 2013.• Detection of all types has expanded worldwide together with growing hyperendemicity.• There remains a dearth of type-specific information in many parts of the world.

Antibody landscapes after influenza virus infection or vaccination

We introduce the antibody landscape, a method for the quantitative analysis of antibody-mediated immunity to antigenically variable pathogens, achieved by accounting for antigenic variation among pathogen strains. We generated antibody landscapes to study immune profiles covering 43 years of influenza A/H3N2 virus evolution for 69 individuals monitored for infection over 6 years and for 225 individuals pre- and postvaccination. Upon infection and vaccination, titers increased broadly, including previously encountered viruses far beyond the extent of cross-reactivity observed after a primary infection. We explored implications for vaccination and found that the use of an antigenically advanced virus had the dual benefit of inducing antibodies against both advanced and previous antigenic clusters. These results indicate that preemptive vaccine updates may improve influenza vaccine efficacy in previously exposed individuals. Preemptive vaccine updates may substantially improve influenza vaccine efficacy in previously exposed individuals. [Also see Perspective by Lessler] Hills and valleys of influenza infection Each one of us may encounter several different strains of the ever-changing influenza virus during a lifetime. Scientists can now summarize such histories of infection over a lifetime of exposure. Fonville et al. visualize the interplay between protective responses and the evasive influenza virus by a technique called antibody landscape modeling (see the Perspective by Lessler). Landscapes reveal how exposure to new strains of the virus boost immune responses and indicate possibilities for optimizing future vaccination programs. Science, this issue p. 996; see also p. 919

Dengue viruses cluster antigenically but not as discrete serotypes

The devil in the dengue details Along with their mosquito vectors, dengue viruses are spreading worldwide to infect millions of people. For a few, subsequent infection results in lethal hemorrhagic disease. Katzelnick et al. used antibody-binding data to map structural divergence and antigenic variation among dengue viruses. Comparing results in monkeys and humans, the viruses approximately clustered into the four known groups. However, the four virus groups showed as much antigenic distance within a group as between groups. This finding helps explain why immune responses to dengue are highly variable, and it has complex implications for epidemiology, disease, and vaccine deployment. Science, this issue p. 1338 Dengue viruses show as much divergence within a type as between types. The four genetically divergent dengue virus (DENV) types are traditionally classified as serotypes. Antigenic and genetic differences among the DENV types influence disease outcome, vaccine-induced protection, epidemic magnitude, and viral evolution. We characterized antigenic diversity in the DENV types by antigenic maps constructed from neutralizing antibody titers obtained from African green monkeys and after human vaccination and natural infections. Genetically, geographically, and temporally, diverse DENV isolates clustered loosely by type, but we found that many are as similar antigenically to a virus of a different type as to some viruses of the same type. Primary infection antisera did not neutralize all viruses of the same DENV type any better than other types did up to 2 years after infection and did not show improved neutralization to homologous type isolates. That the canonical DENV types are not antigenically homogeneous has implications for vaccination and research on the dynamics of immunity, disease, and the evolution of DENV.

Antibody-dependent enhancement of severe dengue disease in humans

Too much or too little—better than some Dengue fever is caused by a mosquito-transmitted flavivirus resembling Zika virus. Both viruses can cause severe diseases in humans with catastrophic sequelae. It has been suspected in humans, and shown in animal models, that the hosts immune responses can make disease worse. Katzelnick et al. examined data from a long-term study of Nicaraguan children exposed to dengue virus (see the Perspective by Feinberg and Ahmed). They confirmed that antibody-dependent enhancement of disease occurs at a specific range of antibody concentrations. Low levels of antibody did not enhance disease, intermediate levels exacerbated disease, and high antibody titers protected against severe disease. These findings have major implications for vaccines against flaviviruses. Indeed, recent vaccine trials have shown evidence of severe disease in some recipients who were previously exposed to virus. Science, this issue p. 929; see also p. 865 A long-term Nicaraguan pediatric cohort reveals that a narrow range of preexisting antibody titers increases the risk of severe dengue disease. For dengue viruses 1 to 4 (DENV1-4), a specific range of antibody titer has been shown to enhance viral replication in vitro and severe disease in animal models. Although suspected, such antibody-dependent enhancement of severe disease has not been shown to occur in humans. Using multiple statistical approaches to study a long-term pediatric cohort in Nicaragua, we show that risk of severe dengue disease is highest within a narrow range of preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers. By contrast, we observe protection from all symptomatic dengue disease at high antibody titers. Thus, immune correlates of severe dengue must be evaluated separately from correlates of protection against symptomatic disease. These results have implications for studies of dengue pathogenesis and for vaccine development, because enhancement, not just lack of protection, is of concern.

Neutralizing antibody titers against dengue virus correlate with protection from symptomatic infection in a longitudinal cohort

Significance The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1–4) are the most prevalent arboviruses worldwide and cause outcomes ranging from inapparent infection to severe disease. Neutralizing antibodies are believed to be critical for protection and therefore for dengue vaccines, but the titers required to prevent symptomatic DENV infection have not been well established. Here, we show that higher preinfection neutralizing antibody titers correlate with lower probability of symptomatic infection in children in a longitudinal cohort study in Nicaragua. Further, we find evidence that levels of cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies are maintained over time, possibly due to reexposure. These findings provide insight into the determinants of DENV infection outcome and long-term immunity in an endemic setting and are relevant for dengue vaccine development. The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1–4) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses that infect ∼390 million people annually; up to 100 million infections are symptomatic, and 500,000 cases progress to severe disease. Exposure to a heterologous DENV serotype, the specific infecting DENV strains, and the interval of time between infections, as well as age, ethnicity, genetic polymorphisms, and comorbidities of the host, are all risk factors for severe dengue. In contrast, neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) are thought to provide long-lived protection against symptomatic infection and severe dengue. The objective of dengue vaccines is to provide balanced protection against all DENV serotypes simultaneously. However, the association between homotypic and heterotypic NAb titers and protection against symptomatic infection remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the titer of preinfection cross-reactive NAbs correlates with reduced likelihood of symptomatic secondary infection in a longitudinal pediatric dengue cohort in Nicaragua. The protective effect of NAb titers on infection outcome remained significant when controlled for age, number of years between infections, and epidemic force, as well as with relaxed or more stringent criteria for defining inapparent DENV infections. Further, individuals with higher NAb titers immediately after primary infection had delayed symptomatic infections compared with those with lower titers. However, overall NAb titers increased modestly in magnitude and remained serotype cross-reactive in the years between infections, possibly due to reexposure. These findings establish that anti-DENV NAb titers correlate with reduced probability of symptomatic DENV infection and provide insights into longitudinal characteristics of antibody-mediated immunity to DENV in an endemic setting.

Preexisting Neutralizing Antibody Responses Distinguish Clinically Inapparent and Apparent Dengue Virus Infections in a Sri Lankan Pediatric Cohort

Dengue viruses (DENVs) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses that infect humans. The clinical presentation of DENV infection ranges from inapparent infection to dengue hemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome. We analyzed samples from a pediatric dengue cohort study in Sri Lanka to explore whether antibody responses differentiated clinically apparent infections from clinically inapparent infections. In DENV-naive individuals exposed to primary DENV infections, we observed no difference in the quantity or quality of acquired antibodies between inapparent and apparent infections. Children who experienced primary infections had broad, serotype-cross-neutralizing antibody responses that narrowed in breadth to a single serotype over a 12-month period after infection. In DENV immune children who were experiencing a repeat infection, we observed a strong association between preexisting neutralizing antibodies and clinical outcome. Notably, children with preexisting monospecific neutralizing antibody responses were more likely to develop fever than children with cross-neutralizing responses. Preexisting DENV neutralizing antibodies are correlated with protection from dengue disease.

Dengue: knowledge gaps, unmet needs, and research priorities

Dengue virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that causes up to about 100 million cases of disease each year, placing a major public health, social, and economic burden on numerous low-income and middle-income countries. Major advances by investigators, vaccine developers, and affected communities are revealing new insights and enabling novel interventions and approaches to dengue prevention and control. Such research has highlighted further questions about both the basic understanding of dengue and efforts to develop new tools. In this report, the third in a Series on dengue, we discuss existing approaches to dengue diagnostics, disease prognosis, surveillance, and vector control in low-income and middle-income countries, as well as potential consequences of vaccine introduction. We also summarise current knowledge and recent insights into dengue epidemiology, immunology, and pathogenesis, and their implications for understanding natural infection and current and future vaccines.

Burden of dengue infection and disease in a pediatric cohort in urban Sri Lanka.

Dengue is the most significant arthropod-borne viral infection of humans. Persons infected with dengue viruses (DENV) have subclinical or clinically apparent infections ranging from undifferentiated fever to dengue hemorrhagic fever/shock syndrome. Although recent studies estimated that the Indian subcontinent has the greatest burden of DENV infection and disease worldwide, we do not have reliable, population-based estimates of the incidence of infection and disease in this region. The goal of this study was to follow-up a cohort of 800 children living in a heavily urbanized area of Colombo, Sri Lanka to obtain accurate estimates of the incidence of DENV infection and disease. Annual blood samples were obtained from all children to estimate dengue seroprevalence at enrollment and to identify children exposed to new DENV infections during the study year. Blood was also obtained from any child in whom fever developed over the course of the study year to identify clinically apparent DENV infections. At enrollment, dengue seroprevalence was 53.07%, which indicated high transmission in this population. Over the study year, the incidence of DENV infection and disease were 8.39 (95% confidence interval = 6.56-10.53) and 3.38 (95% confidence interval = 2.24-4.88), respectively, per 100 children per year. The ratio of clinically inapparent to apparent infections was 1.48. These results will be useful for obtaining more accurate estimates of the burden of dengue in the region and for making decisions about testing and introduction of vaccines.

Evolutionarily successful Asian 1 dengue virus 2 lineages contain one substitution in envelope that increases sensitivity to polyclonal antibody neutralization

The 4 dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1-4) cause the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans worldwide. DENV-2 Asian 1 (A1) genotype viruses replaced the Asian-American (AA) genotype in Vietnam and Cambodia, after which A1 viruses containing Q or M at envelope (E) residue 160 became more prevalent than those with residue 160K in both countries (2008-2011). We investigated whether these substitutions conferred a fitness advantage by measuring neutralizing antibody titer against reporter virus particles (RVPs) representing AA, A1-160K, A1-160Q, and A1-160M, using patient sera from Vietnam and a well-characterized Nicaraguan cohort. Surprisingly, we found that A1-160Q and A1-160M RVPs were better neutralized by heterologous antisera than A1-160K. Despite this, Vietnamese patients infected with A1-160Q or A1-160M viruses had higher viremia levels than those infected with A1-160K. We thus found that independent lineages in Vietnam and Cambodia acquired a substitution in E that significantly increased polyclonal neutralization but nonetheless were successful in disseminating and infecting human hosts.