Leandro Reverberi Tambosi

Using ecological thresholds to evaluate the costs and benefits of set-asides in a biodiversity hotspot

Cost-effective conservation on private land How affordable is biodiversity conservation in a fragmented landscape? Banks-Leite et al. asked this question for the biodiversity hotspot of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. An annual investment of <10% of Brazils agricultural subsidies could support effective ecological restoration on private lands. This would increase biodiversity in set-aside land to the same level observed in protected areas. The cost-effectiveness of this scheme suggests a path forward for conservation strategies in other similarly mixed landscapes, too. Science, this issue p. 1041 A small portion of Brazil’s agricultural subsidies would be enough to preserve private land in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Ecological set-asides are a promising strategy for conserving biodiversity in human-modified landscapes; however, landowner participation is often precluded by financial constraints. We assessed the ecological benefits and economic costs of paying landowners to set aside private land for restoration. Benefits were calculated from data on nearly 25,000 captures of Brazilian Atlantic Forest vertebrates, and economic costs were estimated for several restoration scenarios and values of payment for ecosystem services. We show that an annual investment equivalent to 6.5% of what Brazil spends on agricultural subsidies would revert species composition and ecological functions across farmlands to levels found inside protected areas, thereby benefiting local people. Hence, efforts to secure the future of this and other biodiversity hotspots may be cost-effective.

A landscape triage approach: combining spatial and temporal dynamics to prioritize restoration and conservation

Summary The spatial and temporal dynamics of landscape structure yield ecological constraints that may limit or promote the recovery of functioning habitat within human-modified ecosystems. In planning restoration and conservation measures to optimize outcomes for biodiversity, such constraints should be evaluated at multiple scales. This study presents a multi-scale methodology based on the concept of triage that incorporates landscape and regional spatial context and temporal dynamics to prioritize restoration and conservation. In applying the framework to a large Brazilian Atlantic forest study site that underwent substantial forest cover changes between 1990 and 2002, our results demonstrate the utility of this framework for navigating between different trade-offs inherent to biodiversity conservation. Landscapes are ranked in accordance with indicators that evaluate the relative urgency of intervention, feasibility of recovery and importance for broader-scale biotic flows. Synthesis and applications. Efforts to enhance biodiversity through restoration and/or conservation may be hampered when decisions are based exclusively on contemporary landscape structure, and not made through a historical perspective. In making such trade-offs explicit, this framework can aid practitioners in defining the most appropriate set of restoration or conservation strategies given the ecological constraints, biodiversity goals and available budget.

Safeguarding Ecosystem Services: A Methodological Framework to Buffer the Joint Effect of Habitat Configuration and Climate Change.

Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata), a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC). We then used this information, the bee’s flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use schemes. Overall, our proposed methodological framework could help design novel conservational and agricultural practices that can be crucial to conserve ecosystem services by buffering the joint effect of habitat configuration and climate change.

Comparing the establishment of an invasive and an endemic palm species in the Atlantic rainforest

Background: Biological invasions are one of the major causes of biodiversity loss, yet remain rather understudied in tropical environments. The Australian palm tree Archontophoenix cunninghamiana was introduced into Brazil for ornamental purposes, but has become an invasive species in urban and suburban forest patches. The substitution of A. cunninghamiana by the native palm Euterpe edulis has been proposed as a management action. Aims: We aimed to evaluate the regeneration potential of these two palm species in an Atlantic forest remnant in south-eastern Brazil where both species occur. Methods: We compared seedling establishment and seed longevity of both species through seed sowing, and also measured the contribution of A. cunninghamiana to the local seed rain and seed bank. Results: Nearly half of the non-anemochoric diaspores collected from the seed rain belonged to A. cunninghamiana, which represented a high propagule pressure in the community. The distribution of the alien palm seeds in the seed rain correlated with the distribution of nearby young and adult individuals inside the forest. Neither A. cunninghamiana nor E. edulis appeared to have a persistent seed bank in a burial experiment; seedling survival experiments suggested a much better performance for A. cunninghamiana, which had a survival rate of ca. 30% compared with a rate of only 3.5% for E. edulis. Conclusions: The results suggest a higher regeneration capacity for the alien palm over the native species when co-occurring in a forest fragment. Management actions are thus proposed to reduce a potential biological invasion process.

Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors of Hantavirus Risk in São Paulo, Brazil

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which are negative-sense RNA viruses in the family Bunyaviridae that are highly virulent to humans. Numerous factors modify risk of Hantavirus transmission and consequent HPS risk. Human-driven landscape change can foster transmission risk by increasing numbers of habitat generalist rodent species that serve as the principal reservoir host. Climate can also affect rodent population dynamics and Hantavirus survival, and a number of social factors can influence probability of HPS transmission to humans. Evaluating contributions of these factors to HPS risk may enable predictions of future outbreaks, and is critical to development of effective public health strategies. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to quantify associations between annual HPS incidence across the state of São Paulo, Brazil (1993–2012) and climate variables (annual precipitation, annual mean temperature), landscape structure metrics (proportion of native habitat cover, number of forest fragments, proportion of area planted with sugarcane), and social factors (number of men older than 14 years and Human Development Index). We built separate models for the main two biomes of the state (cerrado and Atlantic forest). In both biomes Hantavirus risk increased with proportion of land cultivated for sugarcane and HDI, but proportion of forest cover, annual mean temperature, and population at risk also showed positive relationships in the Atlantic forest. Our analysis provides the first evidence that social, landscape, and climate factors are associated with HPS incidence in the Neotropics. Our risk map can be used to support the adoption of preventive measures and optimize the allocation of resources to avoid disease propagation, especially in municipalities that show medium to high HPS risk (> 5% of risk), and aimed at sugarcane workers, minimizing the risk of future HPS outbreaks.

Incorporating resilience and cost in ecological restoration strategies at landscape scale

The restoration of deforested or degraded areas can contribute to biodiversity conservation and global resilience given the current and projected impacts of climate change. In recent years, a robust array of ecological restoration frameworks have been generated to address restoration challenges at large scales in different ecosystems around the world. Unfortunately, the costs associated with restoration at such scales greatly challenges the implementation of such frameworks. We used landscape ecology principles with multicriteria optimization of landscape resilience and agricultural productivity as a way to mitigate the trade-offs between production and restoration. We used the Cerrado biome in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil, as a case study to apply our framework. We compared three scenarios: minimal legal compliance (MLC); selection by ecological resilience (SER); and selection by restoration cost (SRC). Our results show that increasing the restoration target from MLC (25%) to SER (30%) means moving from 968,316 to 1592 million hectares, which can represent a huge opportunity cost for agricultural lands. However, because costs and resilience are not homogeneously distributed throughout landscapes, we can select areas of intermediate ecological resilience and low cost, for the same restoration area target. This process can reduce potential conflicts and make restoration a more viable process. Our results also reveal some areas that can be particularly important for reconciling agriculture and landscape restoration. Those areas combined high and intermediate resilience and an above average profitability. This could mean that increasing restoration in this area could be very expensive, assuming that our proxy roughly represents the restoration implementation cost. However, there is another important message here, that some areas can be productive at the same time that they maintain levels of resilience above the legal compliance, which facilitates win-win scenarios in human-dominated landscapes.

Response to Comment on “Using ecological thresholds to evaluate the costs and benefits of set-asides in a biodiversity hotspot”

Finney claims that we did not include transaction costs while assessing the economic costs of a set-aside program in Brazil and that accounting for them could potentially render large payments for environmental services (PES) projects unfeasible. We agree with the need for a better understanding of transaction costs but provide evidence that they do not alter the feasibility of the set-aside scheme we proposed.