Lee Roy Beach

Image theory: Principles, goals, and plans in decision making☆

Abstract A descriptive theory of decision making is proposed in which decision makers represent information as images. One image consists of principles that recommend pursuit of specific goals. A second image represents the future state of events that would result from attainment of those goals. A third image consists of the plans that are being implemented in the attempt to attain the goals. A fourth image represents the anticipated results of the plans. Decisions consist of (1) adopting or rejecting potential candidates to be new principles, goals, or plans, and (2) determining whether progress toward goals is being made, i.e., whether the aspired-to future and the anticipated results of plan implementation correspond. Decisions are made using either (1) the compatibility between candidates and existing principles, goals and plans, and the compatibility between the images of the aspired-to and the anticipated states of events, or (2) the potential gains and losses offered by a goal or plan.

The contingency model for the selection of decision strategies: An empirical test of the effects of significance, accountability, and reversibility

Abstract : A contingency model for the selection of decision strategies was described and tested. This model suggests that when decisions are more significant, the decision cannot be reversed, and the decision maker is responsible for his actions, then the decision strategy will be more analytic and result in a greater investment of time and effort than when the opposite conditions are true. Three studies tested and supported these assumptions. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for the further development of this particular model and for the field of decision making in general. (Author)

Experience and the base-rate fallacy

Abstract This study shows that decision makers can use the base rate to assess posterior probabilities when they have experienced the relationship between the base rate and the diagnostic information. When they experience only the base rate, they do not use it.

“… Do i love thee? Let me count …” toward an understanding of intuitive and automatic decision making

Abstract Image Theory is proposed as a descriptive theory of decision making. The first part of the paper documents the disenchantment with expected value and more rational models of decision making. A literature review presents a new emerging view of the decision process which suggests that decisions are made based on the extent to which alternatives fit with images. Image Theory is described in some detail as a way of defining in a fairly precise manner how this “fittingness” process works. Some research testing the theory is presented and the implications of these results for theory and practice are then discussed.

A cost-benefit mechanism for selecting problem-solving strategies: Some extensions and empirical tests

Abstract Beach and Mitchell (Academy of Management Review 1978, 3, 439–449) proposed a contingency model for the selection of decision strategies in which the decision maker selected that strategy expected to result in the greatest net benefit (i.e., selection is based on a cost-benefit analysis). The perceived costs and benefits associated with each strategy are affected by various situational variables. Christensen-Szalanski (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 1978, 22, 307–323) developed the selection mechanism in greater detail. The present paper extends that selection mechanism by proposing a set of alternative assumptions underlying the mechanism and by proposing an expanded role for the variable time in the decision strategy selection process. In addition, the present paper presents the results of a study testing certain of the proposed extensions and the effects of time constraints, task complexity, and task significance on the selection of a decision strategy.

Developing and testing a decision aid for birth planning decisions

Abstract The article describes the development of a scheme to aid people in thinking through their decisions about whether to have a (another) child. First, a list of values (utilities) was gleaned from the literature, values (utilities) that children apparently fulfill for parents. Following this, seven married couples participated in the gradual modification of the list into a hierarchically structured set of values (utilities). Then two large groups of subjects were used to test the degree to which the hierarchy was meaningful to persons other than those who had participated in its development. Finally, as a feasibility study, two more couples (1) used the hierarchy to decompose their birth decisions into manageable chunks, (2) evaluated the chunks to indicate the relative utility of each chunk, and (3) assessed their subjective probabilities that those utilities represented in each chunk would be satisified if they were to decide to have the child. Computation of subjective expected utilities for having and for not having the child for each member of the couples permitted accurate postdiction of their birth decisions.

A toadstool among the mushrooms: Screening decisions and image theory's compatibility test

Abstract A screening decision is about whether an option fails to meet (violates) specific criteria and must be rejected outright, or whether it meets the criteria and can be retained either as the accepted option or, if more than one option meets the criteria, as one of a set from which the best can then be chosen. Image theorys (Beach and Mitchell 1987) mechanism for screening is called the compatibility test. The test assumes that an option is acceptable unless its failure to meet (violations of compatibility) the various criteria exceeds a threshold, in which case it is rejected. Because it holds that violations and nonviolations are noncompensatory, the theory predicts that rejection decisions are determined solely by the number of violations. The results of the present research, a laboratory study of decisions to reject or accept hypothetical jobs, support the image theory prediction.

Subjective expected utility and the prediction of birth-planning decisions

This article is a companion to an earlier one which detailed the logic development and preliminary testing of a decision aid for birth planning. In brief the scheme consists of a hierarchical organized set of value categories related to having a child to which the decision maker assigns weights to indicate the relative utility of that category to him or her. Following that the decision maker assigns subjective probabilities to the categories to indicate how likely it is that these values would be fulfilled if a positive decision were made about having another child (or first child) in the next 2 years. The hierarchy breaks down into 3 main value-types: values centered on self and spouse (personal identity parenthood and well-being of family); values centered on childen (family characteristics health and well-being of children); and values centered on significant others (family friends and society). Married couples with variously sized families completed the birth-planning hierarchy outlined above. Predictions were made about a child-bearing decision in the next 2 years. Results showed that a subjective expected utility model predicted best (73% correct) for those couples who had not yet attained desired family size. Errors in prediction were not random and the reasons for false positives (couples predicting another child but not having one) are explored including the fact that the hierarchy does not capture the inherent ambivalence of couples; this concept of assenting on a questionnaire vs. real indecision on family continuation is discussed in terms of a decision threshold theory.

The Flu Shot Study: Using Multiattribute Utility Theory to Design a Vaccination Intervention

Differences between the multiattribute utility (MAU) profiles of participants who had previously gotten flu shots and those who had not done so were used to design an informational brochure urging influenza vaccination. The effectiveness of the MAU brochure was evaluated in a VA ambulatory care clinic with a long-standing influenza vaccination program. The target population for the intervention was high-risk clinic patients who had not gotten a shot the previous year. Participants received either a letter urging them to get a flu shot, or a letter plus the informational brochure. A significantly larger proportion of the patients who received the brochure got shots; 36% versus 23% for the letter only. While a 13 percentage point increase is modest, influenza and related complications (preventable through vaccination) are the fourth-leading killers of older persons. Adding a MAU-based brochure to an ongoing vaccination program is inexpensive and may save additional lives.

The pre-choice screening of options

Abstract Fifty years of research on behavioral decision making has produced four major revolutions in how unaided decision making is viewed. In this article we review the four revolutions, with particular emphasis on the last two - the comparative rareness of choice in real-life decision making and the two-step nature of decision making. Image Theory provides the framework for the discussions, focusing on recent empirical research on the role of screening in decision making.