Leeli Amon

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized paleoclimate datasets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earths recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based paleotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our paleotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Plant macrofossil evidence for an early onset of the Holocene summer thermal maximum in northernmost Europe

Holocene summer temperature reconstructions from northern Europe based on sedimentary pollen records suggest an onset of peak summer warmth around 9,000 years ago. However, pollen-based temperature reconstructions are largely driven by changes in the proportions of tree taxa, and thus the early-Holocene warming signal may be delayed due to the geographical disequilibrium between climate and tree populations. Here we show that quantitative summer-temperature estimates in northern Europe based on macrofossils of aquatic plants are in many cases ca. 2 °C warmer in the early Holocene (11,700–7,500 years ago) than reconstructions based on pollen data. When the lag in potential tree establishment becomes imperceptible in the mid-Holocene (7,500 years ago), the reconstructed temperatures converge at all study sites. We demonstrate that aquatic plant macrofossil records can provide additional and informative insights into early-Holocene temperature evolution in northernmost Europe and suggest further validation of early post-glacial climate development based on multi-proxy data syntheses.

Tree taxa immigration to the eastern Baltic region, southeastern sector of Scandinavian glaciation during the Late-glacial period (14,500–11,700 cal. b.p.)

The eastern Baltic region is situated in the southeastern part of the area which was covered by the last Scandinavian glaciation. Four well-dated sediment profiles from sites distributed along a ~330-km north–south transect were analysed for their macrofossil contents. The immigration of tree taxa during the Late-glacial (LG) period, which was the time of environmental change from tundra to woodland in previously glaciated areas, can be determined from these data. The pioneer vegetation in the study area was treeless dwarf shrub tundra with various dominant taxa. The so-called Allerød hemispheric warming permitted the Post-glacial immigration of trees into the southern part of the eastern Baltic region; however, these most probably disappeared during the following cold period, the Younger Dryas/GS-1. The local presence of Betula sect. Albae, Pinus sylvestris, Populus tremula and Picea abies during the LG period in the southern part of the region was confirmed. The northern part of the area presumably remained treeless for the entire LG period. Therefore, until the beginning of the Holocene, the tree line in the eastern Baltic region did not reach beyond 58°N.

Late glacial and early Holocene climate and environmental changes in the eastern Baltic area inferred from sediment C/N ratio

Abstract We assessed the utility of using the sediment total organic carbon/total nitrogen (C/N) ratio as an indicator of paleoclimate changes in the eastern Baltic area during the late glacial and early Holocene. The C/N ratio in sediments from Lake Lielais Svētiņu, eastern Latvia, was compared with other sediment variables that are used as proxies of past climate and environment. Analysis revealed that although the organic matter (OM) content in late glacial sediments was extremely low, the C/N ratio captured information about OM origin, and fluctuations in the ratio tracked climate oscillations. The C/N ratio was significantly positively correlated with pollen-inferred mean summer temperature. Therefore, C/N ratio was lower under colder conditions, indicating a predominantly phytoplankton origin of OM, and was higher during warmer conditions, when there was more vegetation around the lake. A strong positive correlation between C/N ratio and the paleopigment beta carotene suggested that elevated phytoplankton production resulted from higher nutrient availability that was controlled largely by the input of terrestrial OM to the lake during warmer climate episodes. Thus, C/N ratio was a good indicator of paleoclimate changes, at least for the late glacial period, when generally cold conditions prevailed. This study also demonstrates the power of multi-proxy paleolimnological analyses for investigating past environmental changes in lakes and their watersheds.