Leigh F. Johnson

Life Expectancies of South African Adults Starting Antiretroviral Treatment: Collaborative Analysis of Cohort Studies

Leigh Johnson and colleagues estimate the life expectancies of HIV positive South African adults who are taking antiretroviral therapy by using information from 6 programmes between 2001 and 2010.

The effect of genital tract infections on HIV-1 shedding in the genital tract: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

This article reviews the effect of genital tract infections and associated clinical conditions on the detection and concentration of HIV-1 shedding in the genital tract. A search of the PubMed, Embase, and AIDSearch databases was conducted. Meta-analysis was performed on those studies that reported the effect of genital tract infections on the detection of HIV-1 shedding. Thirty-nine studies met the inclusion criteria. The odds of HIV-1 detection in the genital tract were increased most substantially by urethritis (OR 3.1, 95% CI: 1.1–8.6) and cervicitis (OR 2.7, 95% CI: 1.4–5.2). The odds of HIV-1 detection were also increased significantly in the presence of cervical discharge or mucopus (OR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2–2.7), gonorrhoea (OR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2–2.7), chlamydial infection (OR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1–3.1), and vulvovaginal candidiasis (OR 1.8, 95% CI: 1.3–2.4). Other infections and clinical conditions were found to have no significant effect on the detection of HIV-1, although HSV-2 shedding was found to increase the concentration of HIV-1 shedding, and genital ulcer disease was found to increase the odds of HIV-1 detection significantly after excluding one biased study (OR 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2–4.9). This analysis shows that infections that are associated with significant increases in leukocyte concentrations in the genital tract are also associated with significant increases in HIV-1 shedding. These infections are likely to be particularly important in promoting the sexual transmission and mother-to-child intrapartum transmission of HIV-1, and should therefore be the focus of HIV prevention strategies.

High Incidence of Tuberculosis among HIV-Infected Infants: Evidence from a South African Population-Based Study Highlights the Need for Improved Tuberculosis Control Strategies

BACKGROUND There are limited population-based estimates of tuberculosis incidence among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected and HIV-uninfected infants aged < or =12 months. We aimed to estimate the population-based incidence of culture-confirmed tuberculosis among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected infants in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. METHODS The incidences of pulmonary, extrapulmonary, and disseminated tuberculosis were estimated over a 3-year period (2004-2006) with use of prospective representative hospital surveillance data of the annual number of culture-confirmed tuberculosis cases among infants. The total number of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected infants was calculated using population-based estimates of the total number of live infants and the annual maternal HIV prevalence and vertical HIV transmission rates. RESULTS There were 245 infants with culture-confirmed tuberculosis. The overall incidences of tuberculosis were 1596 cases per 100,000 population among HIV-infected infants (95% confidence interval [CI], 1151-2132 cases per 100,000 population) and 65.9 cases per 100,000 population among HIV-uninfected infants (95% CI, 56-75 cases per 100,000 population). The relative risk of culture-confirmed tuberculosis among HIV-infected infants was 24.2 (95% CI, 17-34). The incidences of disseminated tuberculosis were 240.9 cases per 100,000 population (95% CI, 89-433 cases per 100,000 population) among HIV-infected infants and 14.1 cases per 100,000 population (95% CI, 10-18 cases per 100,000 population) among HIV-uninfected infants (relative risk, 17.1; 95% CI, 6-34). CONCLUSIONS This study indicates the magnitude of the tuberculosis disease burden among HIV-infected infants and provides population-based comparative incidence rates of tuberculosis among HIV-infected infants. This high risk of tuberculosis among HIV-infected infants is of great concern and may be attributable to an increased risk of tuberculosis exposure, increased immune-mediated tuberculosis susceptibility, and/or possible limited protective effect of bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccination. Improved tuberculosis control strategies, including maternal tuberculosis screening, contact tracing of tuberculosis-exposed infants coupled with preventive chemotherapy, and effective vaccine strategies, are needed for infants in settings where HIV infection and tuberculosis are highly endemic.

Gender differences in survival among adult patients starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a multicentre cohort study.

Morna Cornell and colleagues investigate differences in mortality for HIV-positive men and women on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

Sentinel surveillance of sexually transmitted infections in South Africa: a review

Objectives: To review studies of sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence in South Africa between 1985 and 2003 in selected sentinel populations. To examine how STI prevalence varies between populations and to identify the limitations of the existing data. Methods: Studies of the prevalence of syphilis, chancroid, granuloma inguinale, lymphogranuloma venereum, gonorrhoea, chlamydia, trichomoniasis, bacterial vaginosis, candidiasis, and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) were considered. Results were included if they related to women attending antenatal clinics or family planning clinics, commercial sex workers, individuals in the general population (household surveys), patients with STIs, patients with genital ulcer disease (GUD), or men with urethritis. Results: High STI prevalence rates have been measured, particularly in the case of HSV-2, trichomoniasis, bacterial vaginosis and candidiasis. The aetiological profile of GUD appears to be changing, with more GUD caused by HSV-2 and less caused by chancroid. The prevalence of gonorrhoea and syphilis is highest in “high risk” groups such as sex workers and attenders of STI clinics, but chlamydia and trichomoniasis prevalence levels are not significantly higher in these groups than in women attending antenatal clinics. Conclusions: The prevalence of STIs in South Africa is high, although there is extensive variability between regions. There is a need for STI prevalence data that are more nationally representative and that can be used to monitor prevalence trends more reliably.

Estimation of adult antiretroviral treatment coverage in South Africa

OBJECTIVES To estimate the annual numbers of individuals receiving antiretroviral treatment in South Africa up to mid-2008, and the coverage of antiretroviral treatment in adults according to various definitions of need. METHODS Antiretroviral coverage is defined as the number of patients receiving antiretroviral treatment at a point in time, divided by the number needing treatment. Numbers of patients receiving antiretroviral treatment are estimated from public sector data, and data provided by disease management programmes and NGO programmes. The unmet need for treatment in adults is estimated using a Markov model of HIV progression in adults, combined with estimates of annual new HIV infections from a national AIDS and demographic model. RESULTS By the middle of 2008, 568 000 adults and children were receiving antiretroviral treatment in South Africa, with the public health sector accounting for 79% of this total. Using the current Department of Health criteria for defining antiretroviral eligibility (CD4+ count <200/microl or World Health Organization (WHO) stage 4), antiretroviral coverage in adults was 40.2% in 2008--up from 4.9% in 2004. Coverage increases to 54.2% if eligibility is based on WHO stage 4 only, but falls to 22.2% if the Southern African HIV Clinicians Society guidelines are used to define eligibility. Coverage in 2008 varied between provinces, from 25.8% in the Free State to 71.7% in the Western Cape. CONCLUSIONS Significant progress has been made in expanding access to antiretroviral treatment in South Africa since 2004, but a substantial unmet need for treatment in adults remains.

Disseminated bacille Calmette-Guérin disease in HIV-infected South African infants

OBJECTIVE To determine the population-based incidence of disseminated bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) disease in HIV-infected infants (aged <or= 1 year) in a setting with a high burden of tuberculosis and HIV infection coupled with a well-functioning programme for the prevention of HIV infection in infants. METHODS The numerator, or number of new cases of disseminated BCG disease, was derived from multicentre surveillance data collected prospectively on infants with a confirmed HIV infection during 2004-2006. The denominator, or total number of HIV-infected infants who were BCG-vaccinated, was derived from population-based estimates of the number of live infants and from reported maternal HIV infection prevalence, vertical HIV transmission rates and BCG vaccination rates. FINDINGS The estimated incidences of disseminated BCG disease per 100 000 BCG-vaccinated, HIV-infected infants were as follows: 778 (95% confidence interval, CI: 361-1319) in 2004 (vertical HIV transmission rate: 10.4%); 1300 (95% CI: 587-2290) in 2005 (transmission rate: 6.1%); and 1013 (95% CI: 377-1895) in 2006 (transmission rate: 5.4%). The pooled incidence over the study period was 992 (95% CI: 567-1495) per 100 000. CONCLUSION Multicentre surveillance data showed that the risk of disseminated BCG disease in HIV-infected infants is considerably higher than previously estimated, although likely to be under-estimated. There is an urgent need for data on the risk-benefit ratio of BCG vaccination in HIV-infected infants to inform decision-making in settings where HIV infection and tuberculosis burdens are high. Safe and effective tuberculosis prevention strategies are needed for HIV-infected infants.

Combination HIV prevention for female sex workers: what is the evidence?

Sex work occurs in many forms and sex workers of all genders have been affected by HIV epidemics worldwide. The determinants of HIV risk associated with sex work occur at several levels, including individual biological and behavioural, dyadic and network, and community and social environmental levels. Evidence indicates that effective HIV prevention packages for sex workers should include combinations of biomedical, behavioural, and structural interventions tailored to local contexts, and be led and implemented by sex worker communities. A model simulation based on the South African heterosexual epidemic suggests that condom promotion and distribution programmes in South Africa have already reduced HIV incidence in sex workers and their clients by more than 70%. Under optimistic model assumptions, oral pre-exposure prophylaxis together with test and treat programmes could further reduce HIV incidence in South African sex workers and their clients by up to 40% over a 10-year period. Combining these biomedical approaches with a prevention package, including behavioural and structural components as part of a community-driven approach, will help to reduce HIV infection in sex workers in different settings worldwide.

The effect of changes in condom usage and antiretroviral treatment coverage on human immunodeficiency virus incidence in South Africa: a model-based analysis.

This study aims to assess trends in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in South Africa, and to assess the extent to which prevention and treatment programmes have reduced HIV incidence. Two models of the South African HIV epidemic, the STI (sexually transmitted infection)–HIV Interaction model and the ASSA2003 AIDS and Demographic model, were adapted. Both models were fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic surveys and household surveys, using a Bayesian approach. Both models suggest that HIV incidence in 15–49 year olds declined significantly between the start of 2000 and the start of 2008: by 27 per cent (95% CI: 21–32%) in the STI–HIV model and by 31 per cent (95% CI: 23–39%) in the ASSA2003 model, when expressed as a percentage of incidence rates in 2000. By 2008, the percentage reduction in incidence owing to increased condom use was 37 per cent (95% CI: 34–41%) in the STI–HIV model and 23 per cent (95% CI: 14–34%) in the ASSA2003 model. Both models also estimated a small reduction in incidence owing to antiretroviral treatment by 2008. Increased condom use therefore appears to be the most significant factor explaining the recent South African HIV incidence decline.

The contribution of maternal HIV seroconversion during late pregnancy and breastfeeding to mother-to-child transmission of HIV

Background:The prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV has been focused mainly on women who are HIV positive at their first antenatal visit, but there is uncertainty regarding the contribution to overall transmission from mothers who seroconvert after their first antenatal visit and before weaning. Method:A mathematical model was developed to simulate changes in mother-to-child transmission of HIV over time, in South Africa. The model allows for changes in infant feeding practices as infants age, temporal changes in the provision of antiretroviral prophylaxis and counseling on infant feeding, as well as temporal changes in maternal HIV prevalence and incidence. Results:The proportion of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) from mothers who seroconverted after their first antenatal visit was 26% [95% confidence interval (CI): 22% to 30%] in 2008, or 15,000 of 57,000 infections. It is estimated that by 2014, total MTCT will reduce to 39,000 per annum, and transmission from mothers seroconverting after their first antenatal visit will reduce to 13,000 per annum, accounting for 34% (95% CI: 29% to 39%) of MTCT. If maternal HIV incidence during late pregnancy and breastfeeding were reduced by 50% after 2010, and HIV screening were repeated in late pregnancy and at 6-week immunization visits after 2010, the average annual number of MTCT cases over the 2010–2015 period would reduce by 28% (95% CI: 25% to 31%), from 39,000 to 28,000 per annum. Conclusion:Maternal seroconversion during late pregnancy and breastfeeding contributes significantly to the pediatric HIV burden and needs greater attention in the planning of prevention of MTCT programs.