Leo A. Orleans

Evidence from Chinese Medical Journals on Current Population Policy

Chinas bitter population dilemma is clearly summarized in just one short statement from the Peoples Daily : “We insist on family planning, but generally speaking we think it is a good thing to have a large population.” For the past two decades Chinas population policy has been shrouded in secrecy, has been expressed only through Communist polemic and has suffered from apparent indecision and consequent vacillations. Official thinking on this subject is almost never expressed in direct statements and proclamations. It must be gleaned from casual remarks by Chinese leaders, from newspaper and magazine articles and official radio broadcasts, which usually discuss implementation but omit reference to the initial decision, and from visitors to China who describe the visible signs that suggest a particular policy is currently in effect.

Problems of Manpower Absorption in Rural China

Traditional China was often singled out in economic texts as an example of a country in which a large population and a backward economy had combined to create “underemployment” or “disguised unemployment” in agriculture. Although estimates varied, it was suggested that in countries such as China the rural labour force could be reduced by as much as 25 per cent, without diminishing the agricultural output. The problem was intensified during the winter months when seasonal unemployment forced minions of peasants to seek some form of work in the already overcrowded cities. Because of the relatively slow growth of Chinas cities and since no major efforts were made to expand the acreage under cultivation, the long-range trend was an increasing population pressure on already available arable land. Although, as a result of characteristically high death rates, the natural increase of the population in rural China was generally low (in periods of natural and man-made calamities the death rates even exceeded the birth rates), the population nevertheless continued to grow, with ever-increasing numbers seeking a livelihood.