Leo Zulu

Community Forest Management in Southern Malawi: Solution or Part of the Problem?

We investigated performance of a committee-led community natural resources management (CNRM) model in managing common-pool eucalyptus and miombo forest resources in southern Malawi. We argue that CNRM policies that ignore internal power relations attract unintended consequences that undermine achievement of conservation and social goals. Both CNRM concept and implementation created new elites (forest committees) who largely operated as corrupt, unaccountable “village bureaucracies,” alienating communities from CNRM. Widespread forest degradation and institutional breakdown ensued. Community management became committee management, and part of the problem. Rare “success” was associated with idiosyncratic leadership qualities of village heads, suggesting need for enhancing roles and leadership skills of traditional leaders in balancing the exercise of power among CNRM stakeholders, and for broad-based community empowerment so that members can demand accountability from local leaders. Eucalyptus was perceived to have higher exchange value and to be managed better than miombo, suggesting the need for separate incentives structures and institutional arrangements.

Analyzing spatial clustering and the spatiotemporal nature and trends of HIV/AIDS prevalence using GIS: the case of Malawi, 1994-2010

BackgroundAlthough local spatiotemporal analysis can improve understanding of geographic variation of the HIV epidemic, its drivers, and the search for targeted interventions, it is limited in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite recent declines, Malawi’s estimated 10.0% HIV prevalence (2011) remained among the highest globally. Using data on pregnant women in Malawi, this study 1) examines spatiotemporal trends in HIV prevalence 1994-2010, and 2) for 2010, identifies and maps the spatial variation/clustering of factors associated with HIV prevalence at district level.MethodsInverse distance weighting was used within ArcGIS Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software to generate continuous surfaces of HIV prevalence from point data (1994, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2010) obtained from surveillance antenatal clinics. From the surfaces prevalence estimates were extracted at district level and the results mapped nationally. Spatial dependency (autocorrelation) and clustering of HIV prevalence were also analyzed. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with HIV prevalence for 2010 and their spatial variation/clustering mapped and compared to HIV clustering.ResultsAnalysis revealed wide spatial variation in HIV prevalence at regional, urban/rural, district and sub-district levels. However, prevalence was spatially leveling out within and across ‘sub-epidemics’ while declining significantly after 1999. Prevalence exhibited statistically significant spatial dependence nationally following initial (1995-1999) localized, patchy low/high patterns as the epidemic spread rapidly. Locally, HIV “hotspots” clustered among eleven southern districts/cities while a “coldspot” captured configurations of six central region districts. Preliminary multiple regression of 2010 HIV prevalence produced a model with four significant explanatory factors (adjusted R2 = 0.688): mean distance to main roads, mean travel time to nearest transport, percentage that had taken an HIV test ever, and percentage attaining a senior primary education. Spatial clustering linked some factors to particular subsets of high HIV-prevalence districts.ConclusionsSpatial analysis enhanced understanding of local spatiotemporal variation in HIV prevalence, possible underlying factors, and potential for differentiated spatial targeting of interventions. Findings suggest that intervention strategies should also emphasize improved access to health/HIV services, basic education, and syphilis management, particularly in rural hotspot districts, as further research is done on drivers at finer scale.

Using GIS to Model and Forecast HIV/AIDS Rates in Africa, 1986–2010

In this article we draw on the power of geographic information systems (GIS) to examine the progression of HIV/AIDS in Africa for the period from 1986 to 2003. We use GIS for two purposes: (1) to transform and interpolate a set of annual point-based HIV/AIDS rates into area data; and (2) to extract or “mine” annual HIV/AIDS prevalence rates from the interpolated area (country) level maps. Once the rates are extracted from the GIS analysis we then model and forecast them into the near future (i.e., 2004–2010) by using the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) software. The article offers an alternative grounded in geospatial analysis for yielding estimates of HIV/AIDS rates in Africa. Using incomplete sets of data for the period from 1986 to 2003, mean HIV/AIDS rates are generated from spatially interpolated data and future trends are estimated. The results indicate that the HIV/AIDS epidemic for many countries in Africa has reached the saturation or maturity level as evidenced by the typical S-shaped curves in the trends over time. As a matter of fact, some countries have begun to experience a sustained decline in the rates (e.g., Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe).

Oil discovery in Turkana County, Kenya: A source of conflict or development?

The recent discovery of oil in Turkana County in Kenya has brought to the forefront the plight of the Turkana people, a marginalized pastoralist group in semi-arid northwestern Kenya. Oil discovery has ignited considerable new-found interest in this neglected region by nonlocal Kenyan and foreign actors. Specifically, we use the resource curse framework to examine major drivers, impacts, and local perceptions of resource-based conflicts generally, and impacts of added vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities introduced by the recent discovery and development of oil in Turkana County. Our preliminary observations indicate that the Turkana, on top of pre-existing and increasingly militarized interethnic and cross-border conflicts primarily driven by competition over scarce pasture and water resources, are likely to face the dreaded ‘oil curse’ that has brought untold devastation on the livelihoods of communities elsewhere in Africa. The central argument in this paper is that the recent discovery of oil will exacerbate pre-existing tensions and likely result in full-blown violent conflicts among the already marginalized Turkana against local and foreign investors such as Tullow Oil that are now converging on local towns of Lodwar and Lokichar in Turkana, unless effective and timely preventive and corrective action is taken.

Sociospatial Geographies of Civil War in Sierra Leone and the New Global Diamond Order: Is the Kimberley Process the Panacea?

We examine the relationship between diamonds and conflict, and performance of the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) in combating ‘conflict diamonds’ using Sierra Leone as a case study and theory on the social production of scale. A ‘glocalization’ process produced lawless spaces and economic opportunities for rebels to circumvent national controls through subregional networks and to access global capital to fund conflict, while KPCS arrangements stemmed conflict diamonds by restoring state regulation and transparency. We contend that the KPCS and its scaling were initially more about protecting economic interests of major diamond companies and trading countries than about ‘ethical diamonds’. The KPCS externalized costs to national governments and poor alluvial-diamond-producing countries relative to industry players; hence the discordance between near elimination of conflict diamonds globally and relative failure in these countries. Findings suggest an approach differentiated by country circumstances, and broadening the KPCS from conflict to illicit and development diamonds.

Analyzing Geographical Access to HIV Sentinel Clinics in Relation to Other Health Clinics in Zambia

This paper illustrates that in countries such as Zambia where available sentinel clinic data lack patient use information while including location and clinic type, advanced geospatial modeling can be a good proxy for measuring access to health care facilities including HIV sentinel clinics. The analysis shows mapped patterns of potential accessibility to HIV sentinel clinics versus all other clinics, while taking into consideration the spatial distribution of the countrys population. The results indicate that Zambia has developed a relatively impressive set of health facilities—so much so that 98% of the population is within 50 km of a health facility, a reasonable distance for a days bike ride, and nearly three in four are within 20 km. However, when it comes to HIV sentinel or surveillance clinics, this target is far from being realized, with only 52% percent of the population being within 50 km of a sentinel clinic.

From the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Africa in the post-2015 development Agenda. A geographical perspective

With this special issue, the African Geographical Review aims at offering a multifaceted geographical perspective on Africa’s development in the global post-2015 development agenda. This project was born from the conviction that human geography is an applied discipline that has fundamental insights to offer to global debates and to the search for innovative solutions to advance the global development agenda beyond 2015, with a specific focus on Africa, its challenges and potential. Furthermore, human geography, and more specifically political and economic geography, offer invaluable theoretical and methodological understanding for analyzing issues related to development and sustainability and in the search for lasting solutions at the core of the global development agenda. These geographic insights are particularly important for Africa, a continent unique in its development challenges and opportunities compared to other developing regions of the world. At the same time, Africa is rich in internal (inter- and intra-country) geographical variation (sociocultural, economic, political and institutional, ecological, and historical). Africa, therefore requires context-specific nuance in analyzing its problems to arrive at particular sets of context-appropriate solutions in general, and especially as the global community transitions from implementation of the Millennium Development Goals and the post-2015 agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Development without Intervention: A Successful Self-Reliance Initiative of Rural Development and Urban Growth in The Sudan

We investigate the complex relationship between small‐scale farming, urban‐rural remittances and rural development. We highlight a successful, innovative self‐reliance approach in which traditional farmers changed their mode of production, improved their income, and enhanced rural development, including urbanization, in Shubbola village of western Sudan. The major initial driver was investment from remittances by family members who had migrated to urban centers, thus overcoming the problem of access to credit/capital. Consequently, the increased use of tractor technology helped farmers overcome agricultural labor shortages, and increase their farm size and productivity. Increased income from remittances and farming broadened economic and social improvements, including lifestyle and the built environment. In the process, Shubbola has grown into a viable and vibrant town, providing its residents with diverse socioeconomic services and modern infrastructure. This case illustrates the potential of development from within with minimal direct input from the government, nongovernmental organizations, and international donors.