Leon Bettendorf

The budgeting and economic consequences of ageing in the Netherlands

The costs of population ageing are primarily reflected in larger expenditures on pensions and health care. This paper explores the consequences of ageing for the Netherlands in a baseline scenario simulated with a dynamic general equilibrium model. We discuss the sensitivity of the results under alternative projections for population ageing. We explore also the effects of three types of social security reform: a reduction in benefits, an increase in the retirement age and smoothing of the public pension premium over time. We find that the welfare effects of ageing and the reforms are substantial.

The Long Arm of the European VAT, Exemplified by the Dutch Experience

The European Commission is evaluating the performance of the common VAT, which has many shortcomings. The numerous exemptions and differentiated rate structures violate the logic and functionality of the VAT. The exemptions distort input choices and outsourcing policies. Reduced rates are ill-targeted tools for mitigating the regressivity of the VAT. In view of these design shortcomings, the EU VAT is in danger of becoming an anachronism compared with modern VATs elsewhere. This paper illustrates its shortcomings with reference to the Dutch experience. The paper does not break new ground, but provides a disconcerting picture of the excess burden of a major revenue source. Bold reform is indicated.

The Redistribution of Macroeconomic Risks by Dutch Institutions

We study the effects of macroeconomic shocks on different cohorts in the Dutch economy. From a calibrated stochastic model of macroeconomic risks, we derive typical shocks to productivity, demography and asset returns. The effects of these shocks are then simulated using an overlapping-generations model that contains a detailed specification of taxes, premiums, and benefits under Dutch law. We look at both the direct impact of shocks on agents wealth and at the redistribution and insurance that are carried out by the government and the pension system. While both these entities generally act to insure shocks across cohorts, our results show that the insurance role of the government is much larger than that of the occupational pension funds. We further find that there is little cross-correlation between different risks, except in the case of rare disasters.