Leonardo Alfonso

Ensemble Entropy for Monitoring Network Design

Information-theory provides, among others, conceptual methods to quantify the amount of information contained in single random variables and methods to quantify the amount of information contained and shared among two or more variables. Although these concepts have been successfully applied in hydrology and other fields, the evaluation of these quantities is sensitive to different assumptions in the estimation of probabilities. An example is the histogram bin size used to estimate probabilities to calculate Information Theory quantities via frequency methods. The present research aims at introducing a method to take into consideration the uncertainty coming from these parameters in the evaluation of the North Sea’s water level network. The main idea is that the entropy of a random variable can be represented as a probability distribution of possible values, instead of entropy being a deterministic value. The method consists of solving multiple scenarios of Multi-Objective Optimization Problem in which information content is maximized and redundancy is minimized. Results include probabilistic analysis of the chosen parameters on the resulting family of Pareto fronts, providing additional criteria on the selection of the final set of monitoring points.

An entropy approach for the optimization of cross-section spacing for river modelling

Abstract An accurate definition of river geometry is essential to implement one-dimensional (1D) hydraulic models and, in particular, appropriate spacing between cross-sections is key for capturing a river’s hydraulic behaviour. This work explores the potential of an entropy-based approach, as a complementary method to existing guidelines, to determine the optimal number of cross-sections to support 1D hydraulic modelling. To this end, given a redundant collection of existing cross-sections, a location subset is selected minimizing total correlation (as a measure of redundancy) and maximizing joint entropy (as a measure of information content). The problem is posed as a multi-objective optimization problem and solved using a genetic algorithm: the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA)-II. The proposed method is applied to a river reach of the Po River (Italy) and compared to standard guidelines for 1D hydraulic modelling. Cross-sections selected through the proposed methodology were found to provide an accurate description of the flood water profile, while optimizing computational efficiency. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Citation Ridolfi, E., Alfonso, L., Di Baldassarre, G., Dottori, F., Russo, F., and Napolitano, F., 2013. An entropy approach for the optimization of cross-section spacing for river modelling. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 126–137.

Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision‐making: Mapping the Value of Information

Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard miti ...

Evaluation of Different Formulations to Optimally Locate Sensors in Sewer Systems

AbstractEfficient management of a sewer system includes the control of the conveyed wastewater quality to adequately operate treatment plants and protect the receiving water bodies. Moreover, these...

An Entropy Method for Floodplain Monitoring Network Design

In recent years an increasing number of flood-related fatalities has highlighted the necessity of improving flood risk management to reduce human and economic losses. In this framework, monitoring of flood-prone areas is a key factor for building a resilient environment. In this paper a method for designing a floodplain monitoring network is presented. A redundant network of cheap wireless sensors (GridStix) measuring water depth is considered over a reach of the River Dee (UK), with sensors placed both in the channel and in the floodplain. Through a Three Objective Optimization Problem (TOOP) the best layouts of sensors are evaluated, minimizing their redundancy, maximizing their joint information content and maximizing the accuracy of the observations. A simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) is used to generate a synthetic GridStix data set of water stages. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) that is used for hydraulic model building is the globally and freely available SRTM DEM.

Influence of spatial distribution of sensors and observation accuracy on the assimilation of distributed streamflow data in hydrological modelling

ABSTRACT The aim of this study is to assess the influence of sensor locations and varying observation accuracy on the assimilation of distributed streamflow observations, also taking into account different structures of semi-distributed hydrological models. An ensemble Kalman filter is used to update a semi-distributed hydrological model as a response to measured streamflow. Various scenarios of sensor locations and observation accuracy are introduced. The methodology is tested on the Brue basin during five flood events. The results of this work demonstrate that the assimilation of streamflow observations at interior points of the basin can improve the hydrological models according to the particular location of the sensors and hydrological model structure. It is also found that appropriate definition of the observation accuracy can affect model performance and consequent flood forecasting. These findings can be used as criteria to develop methods for streamflow monitoring network design.

Metal distribution and fractionation in surface sediments of coastal Tema Harbour (Ghana) and its ecological implications

This study investigated the distribution and fractionation of metals (Mn, Ni, Pb, Cr, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Hg and Sn) in surface sediments of Tema Harbour (Greater Accra, Ghana) as well as its ecological implications. Significant differences in sediment concentrations of Mn, Ni, Cr, Cu, Zn, As and Sn were observed across the Tema Harbour. Geochemical indices indicate that Cd, Hg, Pb, Cu, Zn, As and Sn in the Tema Harbour sediments derived mainly from anthropogenic sources, while Mn, Ni and Cr were mainly of lithogenic origin. Metal fractionation revealed a predominance of Al, Mn, Ni, Pb, Cr, Cu, As and Sn in the residual phase. In contrast, Cd and Hg were mainly present in the exchangeable phase, while Zn was mainly associated with the reducible phase. Based on the metal fractionation in the Tema Harbour sediments, the potential risks of metal bioavailability were high for Cd and Hg, low–medium for Mn, Ni, Zn, As and Sn and low for Pb, Cr and Cu. A screening-level ecotoxicological assessment revealed high potential toxicity of Hg and moderate potential toxicities of Pb, Cu, Zn, As and Cd in the Tema Harbour sediments. The potential influence of the buffer intensity, silt–clay, total organic carbon and carbonate content on the metal distribution in the Tema Harbour sediments was also inferred from their correlations. Comparison with previous studies did not reveal a progressive increase in metal contamination at the Tema Harbour since the year 2000.

Optimal cross-sectional sampling for river modelling with bridges: An information theory-based method

The description of river topography has a crucial role in accurate one-dimensional (1D) hydraulic modelling. Specifically, cross-sectional data define the riverbed elevation, the flood-prone area, and thus, the hydraulic behavior of the river. Here, the problem of the optimal cross-sectional spacing is solved through an information theory-based concept. The optimal subset of locations is the one with the maximum information content and the minimum amount of redundancy. The original contribution is the introduction of a methodology to sample river cross sections in the presence of bridges. The approach is tested on the Grosseto River (IT) and is compared to existing guidelines. The results show that the information theory-based approach can support traditional methods to estimate rivers’ cross-sectional spacing.

Data selection to assess bias in rainfall radar estimates: An entropy-based method

Miscalibration of radar determines a systematic error (i.e., bias) that is observed in radar estimates of rainfall. Although a rain gauge can provide a pointwise rainfall measurement, weather radar can cover an extended area. To compare the two measurements, it is necessary to individuate the weather radar measurements at the same location as the rain gauge. Bias is measured as the ratio between cumulative rain gauge measurements and the corresponding radar estimates. The rainfall is usually cumulated, taking into account all rainfall events registered in the target area. The contribution of this work is the determination of the optimal number of rainfall events that are necessary to calibrate rainfall radar. The proposed methodology is based on the entropy concept. In particular, the optimal number of events must fulfil two conditions, namely, maximisation of information content and minimisation of redundant information. To verify the methodology, the bias values are estimated with 1) a reduced number of events and 2) all available data. The proposed approach is tested on the Polar 55C weather radar located in the borough area of Rome (IT). The radar is calibrated against rainfall measurements of a couple of rain gauges placed in the Roman city centre. Analysing the information content of all data, it is found that it is possible to reduce the number of rainfall events without losing information in evaluating the bias.Miscalibration of radar determines a systematic error (i.e., bias) that is observed in radar estimates of rainfall. Although a rain gauge can provide a pointwise rainfall measurement, weather radar can cover an extended area. To compare the two measurements, it is necessary to individuate the weather radar measurements at the same location as the rain gauge. Bias is measured as the ratio between cumulative rain gauge measurements and the corresponding radar estimates. The rainfall is usually cumulated, taking into account all rainfall events registered in the target area. The contribution of this work is the determination of the optimal number of rainfall events that are necessary to calibrate rainfall radar. The proposed methodology is based on the entropy concept. In particular, the optimal number of events must fulfil two conditions, namely, maximisation of information content and minimisation of redundant information. To verify the methodology, the bias values are estimated with 1) a reduced number of...

Real-time assimilation of streamflow observations into a hydrological routing model: effects of model structures and updating methods

ABSTRACT This paper comparatively assesses the performance of five data assimilation techniques for three-parameter Muskingum routing with a spatially lumped or distributed model structure. The assimilation techniques used include direct insertion (DI), nudging scheme (NS), Kalman filter (KF), ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and asynchronous ensemble Kalman filter (AEnKF), which are applied to river reaches in Texas and Louisiana, USA. For both lumped and distributed routing, results from KF, EnKF and AEnKF are sensitive to the error specification. As expected, DI outperformed the other models in the case of lumped modelling, while in distributed routing, KF approaches, particularly AEnKF and EnKF, performed better than DI or nudging, reflecting the benefit of updating distributed states through error covariance modelling in KF approaches. The results of this work would be useful in setting up data assimilation systems that employ increasingly abundant real-time observations using distributed hydrological routing models.