Leonardo Cascini

Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk

This paper presents recommended methodologies for the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk at different spatial scales (site-specific, local, regional and national), as well as for the verification and validation of the results. The methodologies described focus on the evaluation of the probabilities of occurrence of different landslide types with certain characteristics. Methods used to determine the spatial distribution of landslide intensity, the characterisation of the elements at risk, the assessment of the potential degree of damage and the quantification of the vulnerability of the elements at risk, and those used to perform the quantitative risk analysis are also described. The paper is intended for use by scientists and practising engineers, geologists and other landslide experts.

Modeling of Rainfall-Induced Shallow Landslides of the Flow-Type

The paper deals with the modeling of failure and postfailure stage of shallow landslides of the flow-type that often affect natural shallow deposits of colluvial, weathered, and pyroclastic origin. The failure stage is frequently associated to rainfall that directly infiltrates the slope surface and to spring from the underlying bedrock. The postfailure stage is characterized by the sudden acceleration of the failed mass. The geomechanical modeling of both stages, based on site conditions and soil mechanical behavior, represents a fundamental issue to properly assess the failure conditions and recognize the potential for long travel distances of the failed soil masses. To this aim, in this paper, the current literature on the failure and postfailure stages of the shallow landslides of the flow-type is first reviewed. Then, an approach for their geomechanical modeling is proposed and three different modeling alternatives are presented. These models are then used to analyze, at different scales, a relevant case study of Southern Italy Sarno-Quindici event, May 4-5, 1998. Numerical analyses outline that both site conditions and hydraulic boundary conditions are among the key factors to evaluate the reliability of landslides of the flow-type. The potentialities and limitations of the available models are also evidenced as well as the perspectives related to the use of more advanced numerical models.

Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis

Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes.

Seasonal effects of rainfall on the shallow pyroclastic deposits of the Campania region (southern Italy)

The shallow deposits of unsaturated pyroclastic soils covering the slopes in the Campania region (southern Italy) are systematically affected by various rainfall-induced slope instabilities. The type and triggering of these instabilities depend on several factors, among which in situ soil suction—as an initial condition—and rainfall—as a boundary condition—play a fundamental role. Based on the available database—which includes a comprehensive catalogue of historical data, in situ soil suction measurements and soil laboratory tests along with the results of geomechanical analyses—this paper discusses the relationships among in situ soil suction and rainfall conditions and induced slope instability types. The goal is to reach a better understanding of past events and gain further insight into the analysis and forecasting of future events. In particular, the paper outlines how the season strongly affects the spatial distribution and the type of slope instability likely to develop. For example, erosion phenomena essentially occur at the end of the dry season and originate hyperconcentrated flows while first-time shallow slides prevail in the rainy season and later propagate as debris flows or as debris avalanches.

Subsidence monitoring in Sarno urban area via multi‐temporal DInSAR technique

In this study Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) is used to investigate the effects of a subsidence phenomenon – related to groundwater withdrawal –on ancient low‐rise masonry buildings located in the urban area of Sarno, Italy. ERS‐1/2 SAR data from 1992 to 2002 were analysed and results were validated with geodetic data. The results encourage future developments for study and use of the multi‐temporal DInSAR technique in the mitigation of subsidence risk.

Inception of debris avalanches: remarks on geomechanical modelling

Debris avalanches are complex phenomena due to the variety of mechanisms that control the failure stage and the avalanche formation. Regarding these issues, in the literature, either field evidence or qualitative interpretations can be found while few experimental laboratory tests and rare examples of geomechanical modelling are available for technical and/or scientific purposes. As a contribution to the topic, the paper firstly highlights as the problem can be analysed referring to a unique mathematical framework from which different modelling approaches can be derived based on limit equilibrium method (LEM), finite element method (FEM), or smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH). Potentialities and limitations of these approaches are then tested for a large study area where huge debris avalanches affected shallow deposits of pyroclastic soils (Sarno-Quindici, Southern Italy). The numerical results show that LEM as well as uncoupled and coupled stress–strain FEM analyses are able to individuate the major triggering mechanisms. On the other hand, coupled SPH analyses outline the relevance of erosion phenomena, which can modify the kinematic features of debris avalanches in their source areas, i.e. velocity, propagation patterns and later spreading of the unstable mass. As a whole, the obtained results encourage the application of the introduced approaches to further analyse real cases in order to enhance the current capability to forecast the inception of these dangerous phenomena.

Individual and societal risk owing to landslides in the Campania region (southern Italy)

This paper deals with the estimation of both individual and societal risks owing to landslides in the Campania region (southern Italy) thanks to the availability of an extensive catalogue of historical incident data spanning from the 5th century up to now. Individual risk is estimated by computing the landslide mortality rate. Societal risk is measured by plotting the annual frequency F of events causing N or more fatalities against the number N of fatalities (i.e. an F–N curve). The results obtained show that in Campania both individual and societal risks owing to landslides are very high when compared to similar risks of the Italian territory. Moreover, the analysis of the incident data clearly highlights the most prone areas to catastrophic events, essentially related to the occurrence of flow-like fast-moving phenomena, where the societal risk is proved to be one of the highest in Europe.

Detection and monitoring of facilities exposed to subsidence phenomena via past and current generation SAR sensors

The identification of facilities in areas affected by subsidence phenomena represents a fundamental activity in processes dealing with land management. For this kind of phenomena, the analyses may be hampered by the lack of official subsidence zoning maps because of the wide extension of the affected areas. This is mainly due to the costs necessary for measurements and surveys to be carried out via conventional in?situ techniques which can turn out to be unaffordable for the authorities in charge of land management. In this regard, during the last decade the use of remote sensing data, such as medium resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images processed via differential interferometry algorithms (DInSAR), has proven its benefits for the detection and monitoring of facilities (i.e., buildings and infrastructures) in subsiding areas. Currently, the improved resolution and coverage of the ultimate generation SAR sensors seem very promising for consequence analyses of facilities, although displacement time series are still limited for long-term studies. In this paper, analyses of DInSAR data acquired via both medium (ERS-ENVISAT) and high (COSMO-SkyMed) resolution sensors are carried out over a densely urbanized flat area in southern Italy so as to show how the appropriate use of DInSAR data at different scales can valuably help in the detection and monitoring of damageable facilities.

Groundwater Modeling for the Analysis of Active Slow-Moving Landslides

Active slow-moving landslides in clayey soils exhibit continuous movements generally controlled both in the accelerating and decelerating phases by the pore-water pressure regime that, in turn, is strictly correlated to the net rainfall regime. The paper stresses the importance of a reliable groundwater model to predict these types of movements. To this aim a procedure is proposed to define the transient groundwater regime in the slope on the basis of recorded rainfall and monitoring data; the model is then used to derive the time-dependent shear strength along the main slip surfaces. The displacements at selected points along the slip surface are computed using a phenomenological (i.e., empirical) relationship between the local factor of safety and the displacement rate at those points. The procedure is employed for the analysis of a well-documented case history: the Porta Cassia landslide (central Italy).

Expert engagement in participatory processes: translating stakeholder discourses into policy options

This paper demonstrates an innovative role for experts in supporting participatory policy processes with an application to landslide risk management in the Italian town of Nocera Inferiore. Experts co-produce risk mitigation options based on their specialized knowledge taking account of local knowledge and values by directly coupling stakeholder discourses with option design. Drawing on the theory of plural rationality and based on a literature review, interviews and a public questionnaire, stakeholder discourses are elicited on the landslide risk problem and its solution. Armed with the discourses and in close interaction with stakeholders, experts provide a range of technical mitigation options, each within a given budget constraint. These options are subsequently deliberated in the participatory process with the intent of reaching compromise recommendations for landslide risk mitigation. As we show in an accompanying paper, “Compromise not consensus. Designing a participatory process for landslide risk mitigation” (this issue), the provision of multiple co-produced policy options enhances stakeholder deliberation by respecting legitimate differences in values and worldviews.