Leonie Tickle

Mortality modelling and forecasting : a review of methods

ABSTRACT Continuing increases in life expectancy beyond previously-held limits have brought to the fore the critical importance of mortality forecasting. Significant developments in mortality forecasting since 1980 are reviewed under three broad approaches: expectation, extrapolation and explanation. Expectation is not generally a good basis for mortality forecasting, as it is subjective; expert expectations are invariably conservative. Explanation is restricted to certain causes of death with known determinants. Decomposition by cause of death poses problems associated with the lack of independence among causes and data difficulties. Most developments have been in extrapolative forecasting, and make use of statistical methods rather than models developed primarily for age-specific graduation. Methods using two-factor models (age-period or age-cohort) have been most successful. The two-factor Lee–Carter method, and, in particular, its variants, have been successful in terms of accuracy, while recent advances have improved the estimation of forecast uncertainty. Regression-based (GLM) methods have been less successful, due to nonlinearities in time. Three-factor methods are more recent; the Lee–Carter age-period-cohort model appears promising. Specialised software has been developed and made available. Research needs include further comparative evaluations of methods in terms of the accuracy of the point forecast and its uncertainty, encompassing a wide range of mortality situations.

The Future Aged: New Projections of Australia's Elderly Population

Objectives: To use new methodology to forecast mortality for use in projections of the elderly population of Australia and to compare them with official projections.

Depression, diagnostic sub-type and death: a 25 year follow-up study

We assessed mortality rates over 25 years in 212 patients admitted for depression or depressive symptoms. More patients had died than expected (80 including 13 suicides; SMR = 1.40, P < 0.01). Females, but not males, experienced significantly higher mortality than the general population. When suicides were excluded, neither the group as a whole, nor females solely, demonstrated excess mortality. Rigorously diagnosed depressive sub-type did not predict mortality. Mortality, particularly from suicide, was disproportionately greater in the first 2 years after index admission, suggesting that the follow-up of patients hospitalised with depression must be especially assiduous during the years immediately after admission.

Using linkage between hospital and ABS mortality data to enhance reporting of deaths among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples

Objective: To investigate the potential of record linkage between the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) mortality data and the NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection (APDC) to improve reporting of deaths among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

The Longevity prospects of Australian seniors : an evaluation of forecast method and outcome

Abstract Continuing rapid changes in the level and pattern of mortality require that forecasts are available that are timely, relevant and reliable. This paper evaluates a previous forecast of the mortality and longevity of Australian seniors, both in terms of the validity of the chosen method – the Booth–Maindonald–Smith (BMS) variant of Lee–Carter – and the accuracy and reliability of the forecast itself. The validity of the method is assessed by a comprehensive review and evaluation of available methods, confirming BMS as the method of choice. The accuracy and reliability of the forecast is assessed by comparing it with actual experience and with a new forecast of period and cohort survival probabilities and life expectancies. The evaluation and the current forecast itself will inform the actuarial profession and wider industry in the areas of mortality and longevity risk as well as public debate and policy in population health and ageing.

Applications of Spreadsheets in Education : The Amazing Power of a Simple Tool

This e-book is devoted to the use of spreadsheets in the service of education in a broad spectrum of disciplines: science, mathematics, engineering, business, and general education. The effort is aimed at collecting the works of prominent researchers and educators that make use of spreadsheets as a means to communicate concepts with high educational value. The e-book brings some of the most recent applications of spreadsheets in education and research to the fore. To offer the reader a broad overview of the diversity of applications, carefully chosen articles from engineering (power systems and control), mathematics (calculus, differential equations, and probability), science (physics and chemistry), and education are provided. Some of these applications make use of Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), a versatile computer language that further expands the functionality of spreadsheets. The material included in this e-book should inspire readers to devise their own applications and enhance their teaching and/or learning experience.

A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies.

The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed.

Threshold concepts in finance: conceptualizing the curriculum

Graduates with well-developed capabilities in finance are invaluable to our society and in increasing demand. Universities face the challenge of designing finance programmes to develop these capabilities and the essential knowledge that underpins them. Our research responds to this challenge by identifying threshold concepts that are central to the mastery of finance and by exploring their potential for informing curriculum design and pedagogical practices to improve student outcomes. In this paper, we report the results of an online survey of finance academics at multiple institutions in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa and the United Kingdom. The outcomes of our research are recommendations for threshold concepts in finance endorsed by quantitative evidence, as well as a model of the finance curriculum incorporating finance, modelling and statistics threshold concepts. In addition, we draw conclusions about the application of threshold concept theory supported by both quantitative and qualitative evidence. Our methodology and findings have general relevance to the application of threshold concept theory as a means to investigate and inform curriculum design and delivery in higher education.

Threshold concepts in finance: student perspectives

Finance threshold concepts are the essential conceptual knowledge that underpin well-developed financial capabilities and are central to the mastery of finance. In this paper we investigate threshold concepts in finance from the point of view of students, by establishing the extent to which students are aware of threshold concepts identified by finance academics. In addition, we investigate the potential of a framework of different types of knowledge to differentiate the delivery of the finance curriculum and the role of modelling in finance. Our purpose is to identify ways to improve curriculum design and delivery, leading to better student outcomes. Whilst we find that there is significant overlap between what students identify as important in finance and the threshold concepts identified by academics, much of this overlap is expressed by indirect reference to the concepts. Further, whilst different types of knowledge are apparent in the student data, there is evidence that students do not necessarily distinguish conceptual from other types of knowledge. As well as investigating the finance curriculum, the research demonstrates the use of threshold concepts to compare and contrast student and academic perceptions of a discipline and, as such, is of interest to researchers in education and other disciplines.

The Role of Universities in Preparing Graduates to Use Software in the Financial Services Workplace.

The role of universities in preparing students to use spreadsheet and other technical software in the financial services workplace has been investigated through surveys of university graduates, university academics, and employers. It is found that graduates are less skilled users of software than employers would like, due at least in part to a lack of structured formal training opportunities in the workplace, and a lack of targeted, coherent learning opportunities at university. The widespread and heavy use of software in the workplace means that there is significant potential for productivity gains if universities and employers address these issues.