Leorey Marquez

Artificial neural network models for forecasting and decision making

Abstract Some authors advocate artificial neural networks as a replacement for statistical forecasting and decision models; other authors are concerned that artificial neural networks might be oversold or just a fad. In this paper we review the literature comparing artificial neural networks and statistical models, particularly in regression-based forecasting, time series forecasting, and decision making. Our intention is to give a balanced assessment of the potential of artificial neural networks for forecasting and decision making models. We survey the literature and summarize several studies we have performed. Overall, the empirical studies find artificial neural networks comparable with their statistical counterparts. We note the need to consider the many mathematical proofs underlying artificial neural networks to determine the best conditions for their use in forecasting and decision making.

A framework for linking urban form and air quality

Abstract The importance of urban form in the quest for sustainable development has been recognised in a number of countries in recent years. However, there has been limited progress in bringing environmental planning into the sphere of urban systems planning. This situation can be largely attributed to the absence of advanced integrated land use– transport–environment modelling tools capable of analysing the behaviour of complex, dynamic systems. This paper describes an initial attempt to develop a framework for integrating land use, transport and airshed models for evaluating the effect of city form on air quality. The framework identifies the relationship between various components such as the GIS database, the land use–transport–environment module and the airshed model. Issues concerning the structure and robustness of the framework are discussed and results from a recent air quality inquiry are presented.

Intelligent packaging in meat industry: An overview of existing solutions.

Traditional packaging systems are refused since these systems do not provide any information about the quality of food products to the consumers and manufacturers at any stage of supply chain. The essence of a new technology to monitor the food spoilage from farm to fork is emerged to reduce hazards such as food borne diseases. Moreover, the food quality monitoring systems clarify the main factors in food wastage during supply chain. Intelligent packaging is employed to provide information about the history of food handling and storage to enhance food products quality and meet consumer satisfactions. Meat is one of the most perishable foods which causes sever illnesses in the case of spoilage. Variety of indicators and sensors have been proposed to warn about meat spoilage in meat industry. In this paper an overview of proposed approaches as well as commercial technologies to monitor the quality of meat during storage and transportation is presented. Furthermore, the existing technologies are compared in the sense of advantages and disadvantages in meat packaging applications.

An efficient Lagrangean heuristic for rental vehicle scheduling

In this article we present a heuristic based on Lagrangean relaxation for scheduling rental vehicles. The scheduling problem can be formulated as a set of large assignment problems with linking constraints. We discuss the theory behind the heuristic, including the ability to obtain lower bounds. The heuristic is based on ideas first introduced by D. Wedelin. Empirical testing shows that our heuristic is superior to the exact solution procedure of the MILP formulation with the commercial ILOG Cplex solver as it generally produces better solutions within a set time limit. Moreover, the heuristic can easily be parallelized to take advantage of multicore CPUs. The work presented here has been motivated by a real-life application and is currently being used by companies that rent out recreational vehicles. Testing on data sets from these companies shows the practicality of our algorithm.

An object-oriented approach to the integrated planning of urban development and utility services

Abstract This paper describes an object-oriented model for the integrated planning and management of land resources and utilities-related services. The model facilitates thorough evaluation of scenarios involving land use, and delivery of utilities such as water, gas, telephone and electricity. It therefore provides a mechanism for generating alternative urban development patterns in search of lower utility costs. Furthermore, this approach presents a platform for evaluating the multitude of management options that address economic, social, environmental and institutional aspects of utilities-related developments within an urban environment.

Assessing Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Measures on Urban Freight

Abstract A study to investigate the sensitivity of urban freight patterns to various greenhouse abatement policy measures is underway with Metropolitan Sydney being used as the case study area due to the availability of detailed freight and passenger network level data and models at the New South Wales Transport Data Centre (TDC). The study is designed to build on methodologies under development by TDC to derive freight traffic due to total requirements for freight and relative requirements for categories of goods from actual or forecasted commodity flows and associated information. This paper describes the selection of candidate policy measures for investigation and presents the methodology and processes used in modelling their impacts on urban freight patterns. The discussion will focus on six scenarios which provide policy instruments for application to a 1996 base case. Some results of the modelling of these scenarios will then be presented and issues arising from the study discussed. Special attention will be given to the relative changes in travel characteristics and emissions brought about by these instruments.

Sustain — A Model Investigating Sustainable Urban Structure and Interaction Networks

Immediately after the 1973 Energy Crisis there was a heightened interest in improved understanding and modelling of the interrelationships between urban development and transportation. Such an interest had been awakened already by the apparent neglect of longer term land use adjustments in demand assessments for urban freeways, which were stimulating rapid outward expansion of urban populations, re-introducing congestion as trip lengths increased. Although the resultant major boost in research and development funding did not last very long, progress continued in model formulation and application, especially in the comparative analysis by ISGLUTI (International Study Group for Land Use Transport Interaction) in Webster et. al. (1988). At the same time, politicians and auto-makers responded to increasing public awareness by steadily providing more fuel-efficient vehicles with improved emission standards.

Simulating Vulnerability in Victoria’s Fruit and Vegetable Supply Chain

The horticulture industry in Australia, valued at

Forecasting Grape Maturation Under Heat Stress Using MatPred

3.6 billion per annum, is cyclically subjected to extreme weather events (EWE) that impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fuel costs. These EWE threaten the viability of the industry, and a better understanding of these factors is required to improve the industry’s response to these vulnerabilities. This chapter describes the Supply Chain Database Tool (SCDT), a deterministic model that maps distances, GHG emissions, and other parameters during transport and distribution of fruits and vegetables for consumption in Victoria. The model enabled the calculation of relative measures of GHG emissions for a base (business-as-usual) scenario and for EWE scenarios that simulated the effect of catastrophic flooding in northern Victoria in 2011. The model calculated the net increase/decrease of GHG emissions, as a result of switching suppliers from affected areas to suppliers in non-affected areas to meet demand. We highlight opportunities for the SCDT to be used in conjunction with mathematical programming to improve the supply chain resilience to EWE.

Proposed Road Pollution Alert System Based on Lagrangian Wall Model

Projected climatic changes in Australia for the next 50 years indicate a likely increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events such as heatwaves. The wine and grape industry has intensified calls for more effective methods of managing viticulture activities before, during, and after these events in order to ensure the future viability of the industry. This paper presents MatPred, a maturation forecasting tool developed by CSIRO as part of the VitiForecaster package for grape intake logistics. The discussion details the extension of MatPred’s forecasting methodology to account for heat stress and describes the selection of a recommended regression model to forecast daily change in grape maturity.