Leslie Stayner

Pooled exposure–response analyses and risk assessment for lung cancer in 10 cohorts of silica-exposed workers: an IARC multicentre study

AbstractObjectives: Silica is one of the most common occupational exposures worldwide. In 1997 the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified inhaled crystalline silica as a human carcinogen (group 1), but acknowledged limitations in the epidemiologic data, including inconsistencies across studies and the lack of extensive exposure–response data. We have conducted a pooled exposure–response analysis of 10 silica-exposed cohorts to investigate lung cancer. Methods: The pooled cohort included 65,980 workers (44,160 miners, 21,820 nominees), and 1072 lung cancer deaths (663 miners, 409 nonminers). Follow-up has been extended for five of these cohorts beyond published data. Quantitative exposure estimates by job and calendar time were adopted, modified, or developed to permit common analyses by respirable silica (mg/m3) across cohorts. Results: The log of cumulative exposure, with a 15-year lag, was a strong predictor of lung cancer (p = 0.0001), with consistency across studies (test for heterogeneity, p = 0.34). Results for the log of cumulative exposure were consistent between underground mines and other facilities. Categorical analyses by quintile of cumulative exposure resulted in a monotonic trend with odds ratios of 1.0, 1.0, 1.3, 1.5, 1.6. Analyses using a spline curve also showed a monotonic increase in risk with increasing exposure. The estimated excess lifetime risk (through age 75) of lung cancer for a worker exposed from age 20 to 65 at 0.1 mg/m3 respirable crystalline silica (the permissible level in many countries) was 1.1–1.7%, above background risks of 3–6%. Conclusions: Our results support the decision by the IARC to classify inhaled silica in occupational settings as a carcinogen, and suggest that the current exposure limits in many countries may be inadequate. These data represent the first quantitative exposure–response analysis and risk assessment for silica using data from multiple studies.

FOLLOW-UP STUDY OF CHRYSOTILE TEXTILE WORKERS: COHORT MORTALITY AND EXPOSURE-RESPONSE

Objectives: This report provides an update of the mortality experience of a cohort of South Carolina asbestos textile workers. Methods: A cohort of 3072 workers exposed to chrysotile in a South Carolina asbestos textile plant (1916–77) was followed up for mortality through 2001. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed using US and South Carolina mortality rates. A job exposure matrix provided calendar time dependent estimates of chrysotile exposure concentrations. Poisson regression models were fitted for lung cancer and asbestosis. Covariates considered included sex, race, age, calendar time, birth cohort and time since first exposure. Cumulative exposure lags of 5 and 10 years were considered by disregarding exposure in the most recent 5 and 10 years, respectively. Results: A majority of the cohort was deceased (64%) and 702 of the 1961 deaths occurred since the previous update. Mortality was elevated based on US referent rates for a priori causes of interest including all causes combined (SMR 1.33, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.39); all cancers (SMR 1.27, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.39); oesophageal cancer (SMR 1.87, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.99); lung cancer (SMR 1.95, 95% CI 1.68 to 2.24); ischaemic heart disease (SMR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.32); and pneumoconiosis and other respiratory diseases (SMR 4.81, 95% CI 3.84 to 5.94). Mortality remained elevated for these causes when South Carolina referent rates were used. Three cases of mesothelioma were observed among cohort members. Exposure-response modelling for lung cancer, using a linear relative risk model, produced a slope coefficient of 0.0198 (fibre-years/ml) (standard error 0.00496), when cumulative exposure was lagged 10 years. Poisson regression modelling confirmed significant positive relations between estimated chrysotile exposure and lung cancer and asbestosis mortality observed in previous updates of this cohort. Conclusions: This study confirms the findings from previous investigations of excess mortality from lung cancer and asbestosis and a strong exposure-response relation between estimated exposure to chrysotile and mortality from lung cancer and asbestosis.

A dose-response analysis and quantitative assessment of lung cancer risk and occupational cadmium exposure.

We performed a quantitative assessment of the risk of lung cancer from exposure to cadmium based on a retrospective cohort mortality study of cadmium-exposed workers. The study population consisted of white male workers who were employed for at least 6 months at a cadmium smelter between January 1, 1940, and December 31, 1969, and who were first employed at the facility on or after January 1, 1926. The study findings were analyzed using a modified life-table analysis to estimate standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), and various functional forms (i.e., exponential, power, additive relative rate, and linear) of Poisson and Cox proportional hazards models to examine the dose-response relationship. Estimates of working lifetime risk (45 years) were developed using an approach that corrects for competing causes of death. An excess in mortality from lung cancer was observed for the entire cohort (SMR = 149, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 95, 222). Mortality from lung cancer was greatest among non-Hispanic workers (SMR = 211, 95% CI = 131, 323), among workers in the highest cadmium exposure group (SMR = 272, 95% CI = 123, 513), and among workers with 20 or more years since the first exposure (SMR = 161, 95% CI = 100, 248). A statistically significant dose-response relationship was evident in nearly all of the regression models evaluated. Based on our analyses, the lifetime excess lung cancer risk at the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration standard for cadmium fumes of 100 micrograms/m3 is approximately 50 to 111 lung cancer deaths per 1000 workers exposed to cadmium for 45 years.

The Worldwide Pandemic of Asbestos-Related Diseases

BACKGROUND Asbestos-related diseases are still a major public health problem. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that 107,000 people worldwide die each year from mesothelioma, lung cancer, and asbestosis. We review what is known about asbestos use, production, and exposure and asbestos-related diseases in the world today, and we offer predictions for the future. Although worldwide consumption of asbestos has decreased, consumption is increasing in many developing countries. The limited data available suggest that exposures may also be high in developing countries. Mesothelioma is still increasing in most European countries and in Japan but has peaked in the United States and Sweden. Although the epidemic of asbestos-related disease has plateaued or is expected to plateau in most of the developed world, little is known about the epidemic in developing countries. It is obvious that increased asbestos use by these countries will result in an increase in asbestos-related diseases in the future.

Exposure-response analysis of risk of respiratory disease associated with occupational exposure to chrysotile asbestos.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate alternative models and estimate risk of mortality from lung cancer and asbestosis after occupational exposure to chrysotile asbestos. METHODS: Data were used from a recent update of a cohort mortality study of workers in a South Carolina textile factory. Alternative exposure-response models were evaluated with Poisson regression. A model designed to evaluate evidence of a threshold response was also fitted. Lifetime risks of lung cancer and asbestosis were estimated with an actuarial approach that accounts for competing causes of death. RESULTS: A highly significant exposure-response relation was found for both lung cancer and asbestosis. The exposure-response relation for lung cancer seemed to be linear on a multiplicative scale, which is consistent with previous analyses of lung cancer and exposure to asbestos. In contrast, the exposure-response relation for asbestosis seemed to be nonlinear on a multiplicative scale in this analysis. There was no significant evidence for a threshold in models of either the lung cancer or asbestosis. The excess lifetime risk for white men exposed for 45 years at the recently revised OSHA standard of 0.1 fibre/ml was predicted to be about 5/1000 for lung cancer, and 2/1000 for asbestosis. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the findings from previous investigations of a strong exposure-response relation between exposure to chrysotile asbestos and mortality from lung cancer, and asbestosis. The risk estimates for lung cancer derived from this analysis are higher than those derived from other populations exposed to chrysotile asbestos. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.

Mortality among workers exposed to ethylene oxide.

BACKGROUND Ethylene oxide is a sterilant gas that causes leukemia and other cancers in animals. Studies in Sweden have shown an excess of leukemia and stomach cancer in humans exposed to ethylene oxide, but other studies have generally failed to confirm these findings. METHODS We conducted a study of mortality in 18,254 U.S. workers exposed to ethylene oxide at 14 plants producing sterilized medical supplies and spices. The subjects averaged 4.9 years of exposure to the gas and 16 years of follow-up. The exposure levels in recent years averaged 4.3 ppm (eight-hour time-weighted adjusted exposure) for sterilizer operators and 2.0 ppm for other workers. The levels in earlier years are likely to have been several times higher. Mortality in this cohort was compared with that in the general U.S. population. RESULTS Overall there was no significant increase in mortality from any cause in the study cohort. The standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were 0.97 for leukemia (95 percent confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.67; 13 deaths observed), 1.06 for all hematopoietic cancers (95 percent confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.47; 36 deaths), and 0.94 for stomach cancer (95 percent confidence interval, 0.45 to 1.70; 11 deaths). Analyses according to job category and according to the duration of exposure showed no excess in cancers, as compared with the rate in the general population, but there was a significant trend toward increased mortality with increasing lengths of time since the first exposure for all hematopoietic cancers. The rate of death from hematopoietic cancer (especially non-Hodgkins lymphoma) was significantly increased among men (SMR, 1.55; 27 deaths). Mortality from leukemia in recent years (1985 through 1987) was significantly increased among men (SMR, 3.45; 5 deaths). CONCLUSIONS For the entire cohort, there was no increase in mortality from hematopoietic cancer. There was a slight but significant increase among men, however. Among men and women combined, there was a trend toward an increased risk of death from hematopoietic cancer with increasing lengths of time since the first exposure to ethylene oxide.

Meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies on cigarette smoking and liver cancer

BACKGROUND Whereas the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Monograph concluded that the evidence for the relationship between cigarette smoking and liver cancer is sufficient, the US Surgeon Generals report summarized the data as suggestive but not sufficient. METHODS A meta-analysis of previous epidemiologic studies may help to clarify the potential association. We identified 38 cohort studies and 58 case-control studies in a systematic literature search for studies on liver cancer and cigarette smoking. The meta-relative risk (mRR) of liver cancer and dose-response trends were calculated. Tests for heterogeneity, publication bias assessment and influence analyses were performed. RESULTS Compared with never smokers, the adjusted mRR was 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.37-1.67] for current smokers and 1.12 (95% CI 0.78-1.60) for former smokers. The increased liver cancer risk among current smokers appeared to be consistent in strata of different regions, study designs, study sample sizes and publication periods. CONCLUSION The results of our meta-analysis show that tobacco smoking is associated with liver cancer development, which supports the conclusion by the IARC Monograph. This conclusion has an important public health message for areas with high smoking prevalence and high liver cancer incidence such as China.

Lung Cancer Risk and Workplace Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke

OBJECTIVES We sought to quantitatively evaluate the association between work-place environmental tobacco smoke exposure and lung cancer. METHODS We performed a meta-analysis in 2003 of data from 22 studies from multiple locations worldwide of workplace environmental tobacco smoke exposure and lung cancer risk. Estimates of relative risk from these studies were analyzed by fitting the data to fixed and mixed effects models. Analyses of highly exposed workers and of the relationship between duration of exposure and lung cancer were also performed. RESULTS The meta-analysis indicated a 24% increase in lung cancer risk (relative risk [RR]=1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.18, 1.29) among workers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke. A 2-fold increased risk (RR=2.01; 95% CI=1.33, 2.60) was observed for workers classified as being highly exposed to environmental tobacco smoke. A strong relationship was observed between lung cancer and duration of exposure to environmental tobacco smoke. CONCLUSIONS The findings from this investigation provide the strongest evidence to date that exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in the workplace is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THE LIFE TABLE ANALYSIS SYSTEM OF THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH

In the 1970s, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health developed a Life Table Analysis System to analyze occupational cohort studies. We have updated the original system by adding two new features: direct standardization with a test for linear trend, and analyses by lagged exposure (either duration of exposure or cumulative exposure). We have also updated US reference rates through 1989. The updated systems and documentation (version F) are available upon request. In collaboration with the National Cancer Institute, we have also developed multiple cause-of-death rate files, which consider contributory as well as underlying cause. These files (also available upon request) will enable investigators to derive the expected prevalence of diseases at death, which can then be compared with the observed prevalence in an exposed cohort. Work is currently underway to produce a personal computer version of the Life Table Analysis System.

An epidemiological study of the role of chrysotile asbestos fibre dimensions in determining respiratory disease risk in exposed workers

Background: Evidence from toxicological studies indicates that the risk of respiratory diseases varies with asbestos fibre length and width. However, there is a total lack of epidemiological evidence concerning this question. Methods: Data were obtained from a cohort mortality study of 3072 workers from an asbestos textile plant which was recently updated for vital status through 2001. A previously developed job exposure matrix based on phase contrast microscopy (PCM) was modified to provide fibre size-specific exposure estimates using data from a re-analysis of samples by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Cox proportional hazards models were fit using alternative exposure metrics for single and multiple combinations of fibre length and diameter. Results: TEM-based cumulative exposure estimates were found to provide stronger predictions of asbestosis and lung cancer mortality than PCM-based estimates. Cumulative exposures based on individual fibre size-specific categories were all found to be highly statistically significant predictors of lung cancer and asbestosis. Both lung cancer and asbestosis were most strongly associated with exposure to thin fibres (<0.25 μm). Longer (>10 μm) fibres were found to be the strongest predictors of lung cancer, but an inconsistent pattern with fibre length was observed for asbestosis. Cumulative exposures were highly correlated across all fibre size categories in this cohort (0.28–0.99, p values <0.001), which complicates the interpretation of the study findings. Conclusions: Asbestos fibre dimension appears to be an important determinant of respiratory disease risk. Current PCM-based methods may underestimate asbestos exposures to the thinnest fibres, which were the strongest predictor of lung cancer or asbestosis mortality in this study. Additional studies are needed of other asbestos cohorts to further elucidate the role of fibre dimension and type.