Leslie T. Oxley

A Forward-Looking Measure of the Stock of Human Capital in New Zealand

Human capital is increasingly believed to play an important role in the growth process; however, adequately measuring its stock remains controversial. Because the estimated impact that human capital has on economic growth is sensitive to the measures or proxies of human capital, accurate and consistent measures are needed. While many measures of human capital have been developed, most rely on some proxy of educational experience and are thus plagued with limitations. In this study, we modify the lifetime labour income approach outlined by Jorgenson and Fraumeni (The Measurement of Savings, Investment and Wealth, Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press, 1989, pp. 227–282; Output Measurement in the Services Sector, Chicago, IL, University of Chicago Press, 1992, pp. 303–338) to estimate the monetary value of the human capital stock for New Zealand. Based on data from the New Zealand Census of Population, we find that the countrys working human capital grew by half between 1981 and 2001, mostly due to the rise in employment level. This stock of human capital was also well over double that of physical capital in all the census years studied.

Does Money Buy Me Love? Testing Alternative Measures of National Wellbeing

Many aggregate measures of wellbeing and sustainability exist to guide policy-makers. However, the power of these aggregate measures to predict objective wellbeing outcomes has received little comparative testing. We compile and compare a range of aggregate wellbeing measures including: material measures (e.g. Gross Domestic Product per capita), surveyed measures (e.g. life satisfaction) and composite measures (e.g. Human Development Index) covering a range of countries. We test the predictive power of wellbeing measures for an objective indicator of how people value countries’ relative attractiveness. The objective indicator is net migration over a fifty year timespan, indicating people’s revealed preference (re)location choices. The paper examines relationships amongst cross-country wellbeing and sustainability measures; and examines how New Zealand compares with other countries according to these measures. Based on models of spatial (dis)equilibrium and migration, we present tests of the predictive power of alternative aggregate measures for international migration outcomes. We find that both material and life satisfaction outcomes are important determinants of the choice to migrate.

Industrial agglomeration, geographic innovation and total factor productivity: The case of Taiwan

The paper analyses the impact of geographic innovation on total factor productivity (TFP) in Taiwan in 2001 using 242 four-digit standard industrial classification (SIC) industries. We compute TFP by estimating Translog production functions with K, L, E and M inputs, and measure the geographic innovative activity using both Krugmans Gini coefficients and the location Herfindahl index. We also consider the geographic innovation variable as an endogenous variable and use two stage least squares (2SLS) to obtain a consistent, albeit inefficient, estimator. The empirical results show a significantly positive effect of geographic innovation, as well as R&D expenditure, on TFP. These results are robust for the Gini coefficients and location Herfindahl index, when industrial characteristics and heteroskedasticity are controlled. Moreover the Hausman test shows that the geographic innovation variable should be treated as endogenous which supports the modern theory of industrial clustering regarding innovation spillovers within clusters.

The Ten Commandments for Academics

No abstract available.

The Ten Commandments for Presenting a Conference Paper

No abstract available.

Ten Things We Should Know About Time Series

Time series data affect many aspects of our lives. This paper highlights ten things we should all know about time series, namely: a good working knowledge of econometrics and statistics, an awareness of measurement errors, testing for zero frequency, seasonal and periodic unit roots, analysing fractionally integrated and long memory processes, estimating VARFIMA models, using and interpreting cointegrating models carefully, choosing sensibly among univariate conditional, stochastic and realized volatility models, not confusing thresholds, asymmetry and leverage, not underestimating the complexity of multivariate volatility models, and thinking carefully about forecasting models and expertise

Great Expectatrics: Great Papers, Great Journals, Great Econometrics

The paper discusses alternative Research Assessment Measures (RAM), with an emphasis on the Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science database (hereafter ISI). Some analysis and comparisons are also made with data from the SciVerse Scopus database. The various RAM that are calculated annually or updated daily are defined and analysed, including the classic 2-year impact factor (2YIF), 2YIF without journal self citations (2YIF*), 5-year impact factor (5YIF), Immediacy (or zero-year impact factor (0YIF)), Impact Factor Inflation (IFI), Self-citation Threshold Approval Rating (STAR), Eigenfactor score, Article Influence, C3PO (Citation Performance Per Paper Online), h-index, Zinfluence, and PI-BETA (Papers Ignored - By Even The Authors). The RAM are analysed for 10 leading econometrics journals and 4 leading statistics journals. The application to econometrics can be used as a template for other areas in economics, for other scientific disciplines, and as a benchmark for newer journals in a range of disciplines. In addition to evaluating high quality research in leading econometrics journals, the paper also compares econometrics and statistics, alternative RAM, highlights the similarities and differences of the alternative RAM, finds that several RAM capture similar performance characteristics for the leading econometrics and statistics journals, while the new PI-BETA criterion is not highly correlated with any of the other RAM, and hence conveys additional information regarding RAM, highlights major research areas in leading journals in econometrics, and discusses some likely future uses of RAM, and shows that the harmonic mean of 13 RAM provides more robust journal rankings than relying solely on 2YIF.

What Makes a Great Journal Great in Economics? The Singer Not the Song

The paper is concerned with analysing what makes a great journal great in economics, based on quantifiable measures. Alternative Research Assessment Measures (RAM) are discussed, with an emphasis on the Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Science database (hereafter ISI). The various ISI RAM that are calculated annually or updated daily are defined and analysed, including the classic 2-year impact factor (2YIF), 5-year impact factor (5YIF), Immediacy (or zero-year impact factor (0YIF)), Eigenfactor score, Article Influence, C3PO (Citation Performance Per Paper Online), h-index, Zinfluence, PI-BETA (Papers Ignored - By Even The Authors), and two new RAM measure, the Self-citation Threshold Approval Rating (STAR) score and the Impact Factor Inflation (IFI) score. The ISI RAM data are analysed for the most highly cited journals in the ISI categories of Economics, Management, Business, and Business - Finance. The journals are chosen on the basis of 2YIF (including self citations by both author and journal). The application to these four ISI categories could be used as a template for other ISI categories in both the Social Sciences and the Sciences, and as a benchmark for newer journals in a range of ISI disciplines. In addition to evaluating high quality research in the most highly cited Economics journals, the paper also compares the most highly cited journals in Management, Business, and Business - Finance, alternative RAM, highlights the similarities and differences in alternative RAM criteria, finds that several ISI RAM capture similar performance characteristics for the most highly cited Economics, Management, Business and Business - Finance journals, determines that the Immediacy and PI-BETA scores are not highly correlated with the other ISI RAM, and hence conveys additional information regarding ISI RAM criteria. Harmonic mean rankings of the 12 RAM criteria for the most highly cited journals in the four categories are also presented. It was shown that emphasizing THE impact factor, specifically the 2-year impact factor, of a journal to the exclusion of other useful and illuminating RAM criteria, can lead to a distorted evaluation of journal performance and influence on the profession.

Earthquakes and Volcanoes: The International Conference on Modelling and Forecasting Financial Volatility, Perth Australia, 7-9 September 2001

No abstract available.

Making and Breaking Rules in Applied Econometrics

The lead article in Volume 1, Issue 1, Journal of Economic Surveys, 1987 was Adrian Pagan’s ‘Three Econometric Methodologies: A Critical Appraisal’. Reprinted in Oxley et al. (1995) Surveys in Econometrics, and updated in the same volume as ‘Three Econometric Methodologies: An Update’, the Journal quickly established an interest in papers that addressed the important issue of econometric methodology. Michael McAleer’s 1994 Journal paper entitled ‘Sherlock Holmes and the Search for Truth: A Diagnostic Tale’ (also reprinted in Oxley et al., 1995), and Dharma Dharmapala’s ‘On the History and Methodology of Econometrics’, published in 1993, added to the Journal’s growing portfolio of excellent papers published in this general area. It is fitting, therefore, that the current debate sparked by Peter Kennedy’s ‘Sinning in the Basement’ paper be published in the Journal. It is illuminating to re-read Pagan (1987, 1995) and see how far we have progressed. Adrian Pagan reminds us that although methodological debate in economics is almost as long-standing as the discipline itself (quoting John Stuart Mill, 1967): ‘it was not until the Fifth World Congress of the Econometric Society in 1985 that a session was devoted to methodological issues’ (p. 3). It is also interesting to note Adrian’s highlighting of several of J. S. Mill’s views on methodology. In particular: At the same time he (Mill) emphasized that, in many instances, it was easier to practice a science than to describe how one was doing it. He finally concluded that a better understanding of scope and method would facilitate the progress of economics as a science, but that sound methodology was not a necessary condition for the practice of sound methods. ‘Get on with the job’ seems the appropriate message. (p. 3). This issue of the Journal contains contributions to the methodology of applied econometrics, and are presented in the Occasional Contributions section. The