Lester B. Lave

Air pollution and human health

The first section of the book is concerned with background and theoretical framework. Some topics discussed are factors affecting the shape of the analysis; factors affecting mortality; laboratory versus natural experiments; and problems of estimation. The second section is concerned with cross-sectional analysis of U.S. standard metropolitan statistical areas. Some topics discussed are total U.S. mortality; disaggregated mortality rates; effects of occupation, mix, climate, and home heating; and interactions between air pollutants. The third section is concerned with annual and daily time-series analysis. Cross-sectional time-series analysis and the relationship between mortality and daily air pollution are discussed. Policy implications are discussed with regard to benefits and costs of air pollution abatement. (HLW)

Evaluating automobile fuel/propulsion system technologies

We examine the life cycle implications of a wide range of fuels and propulsion systems that could power cars and light trucks in the US and Canada over the next two to three decades ((1) reformulated gasoline and diesel, (2) compressed natural gas, (3) methanol and ethanol, (4) liquid petroleum gas, (5) liquefied natural gas, (6) Fischer ‐ Tropsch liquids from natural gas, (7) hydrogen, and (8) electricity; (a) spark ignition port injection engines, (b) spark ignition direct injection engines, (c) compression ignition engines, (d) electric motors with battery power, (e) hybrid electric propulsion options, and (f) fuel cells). We review recent studies to evaluate the environmental, performance, and cost characteristics of fuel/propulsion technology combinations that are currently available or will be available in the next few decades. Only options that could power a significant proportion of the personal transportation fleet are investigated. Contradictions among the goals of customers, manufacturers, and society have led society to assert control through extensive regulation of fuel composition, vehicle emissions, and fuel economy. Changes in social goals, fuel-engine-emissions technologies, fuel availability, and customer desires require a rethinking of current regulations as well as the design of vehicles and fuels that will appeal to consumers over the next decades. The almost 250 million light-duty vehicles (LDV; cars and light trucks) in the US and Canada are responsible for about 14% of the economic activity in these countries for the year 2002. These vehicles are among our most important personal assets and liabilities, since they are generally the second most expensive asset we own, costing almost

Is There a Role for Benefit-Cost Analysis in Environmental, Health, and Safety Regulation?

100 000 over the lifetime of a vehicle. While an essential part of our lifestyles and economies, in the US, for example, the light-duty fleet is also responsible for 42 000 highways deaths, and four million injuries each year, consumes almost half of the petroleum used, and causes large amounts of illness and premature death due to the emissions of air pollutants (e.g. nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and particles). The search for new technologies and fuels has been driven by regulators, not the marketplace. Absent regulation, most consumers would demand larger, more powerful vehicles, ignoring fuel economy and emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases; the vehicles that get more than 35 mpg make up less than 1% of new car sales. Federal regulators require increased vehicle safety, decreased pollution emissions, and better fuel economy. In addition, California and Canadian regulators are concerned about lowering greenhouse gas emissions. Many people worry about the US dependence on imported petroleum, and people in both countries desire a switch from petroleum to a more sustainable fuel. The fuel-technology combinations and vehicle attributes of concern to drivers and regulators are examined along with our final evaluation of the alternatives compared to a conventional gasoline-fueled spark ignition port injection automobile. When the US Congress passed laws intended to increase safety, decrease emissions, and increase fuel economy, they did not realize that these goals were contradictory. For example, increasing safety requires increasing weight, which lowers fuel economy; decreasing emissions generally decreases engine efficiency. By spending more money or by reducing the performance of the vehicle, most of the attributes can be improved without harming others. For example, spending more money can lighten the vehicle (as with an aluminum frame with greater energy absorbing capacity), improving performance and safety; a smaller engine can increase fuel economy without diminishing safety or increasing pollution emissions, but performance

Valuation of plug-in vehicle life-cycle air emissions and oil displacement benefits.

Benefit-cost analysis can play an important role in legislative and regulatory policy debates on protecting and improving health, safety, and the natural environment. Although formal benefit-cost analysis should not be viewed as either necessary or sufficient for designing sensible public policy, it can provide an exceptionally useful framework for consistently organizing disparate information, and in this way, it can greatly improve the process and, hence, the outcome of policy analysis. If properly done, benefit-cost analysis can be of great help to agencies participating in the development of environmental, health, and safety regulations, and it can likewise be useful in evaluating agency decision-making and in shaping statutes.

Effect of the Fine Fraction of Particulate Matter versus the Coarse Mass and Other Pollutants on Daily Mortality in Santiago, Chile

We assess the economic value of life-cycle air emissions and oil consumption from conventional vehicles, hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles in the US. We find that plug-in vehicles may reduce or increase externality costs relative to grid-independent HEVs, depending largely on greenhouse gas and SO2 emissions produced during vehicle charging and battery manufacturing. However, even if future marginal damages from emissions of battery and electricity production drop dramatically, the damage reduction potential of plug-in vehicles remains small compared to ownership cost. As such, to offer a socially efficient approach to emissions and oil consumption reduction, lifetime cost of plug-in vehicles must be competitive with HEVs. Current subsidies intended to encourage sales of plug-in vehicles with large capacity battery packs exceed our externality estimates considerably, and taxes that optimally correct for externality damages would not close the gap in ownership cost. In contrast, HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs reduce externality damages at low (or no) additional cost over their lifetime. Although large battery packs allow vehicles to travel longer distances using electricity instead of gasoline, large packs are more expensive, heavier, and more emissions intensive to produce, with lower utilization factors, greater charging infrastructure requirements, and life-cycle implications that are more sensitive to uncertain, time-sensitive, and location-specific factors. To reduce air emission and oil dependency impacts from passenger vehicles, strategies to promote adoption of HEVs and PHEVs with small battery packs offer more social benefits per dollar spent.

AN ENVIRONMENTAL-ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES: TOYOTA'S PRIUS VS. ITS CONVENTIONAL INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE COROLLA

ABSTRACT Daily counts of non-accidental deaths in Santiago, Chile, from 1988 to 1996 were regressed on six air pollutants— fine particles (PM2.5), coarse particles (PM10–2.5), CO, SO2, NO2, and O3. Controlling for seasonal and meteorological conditions was done using three different models— a generalized linear model, a generalized additive model, and a generalized additive model on previously filtered data. Single- and two-pollutant models were tested for lags of 1-5 days and the average of the previous 2-5 days. The increase in mortality associated with the mean levels of air pollution varied from 4 to 11%, depending on the pollutants and the way season of the year was considered. The results were not sensitive to the modeling approaches, but different effects for warmer and colder months were found. Fine particles were more important than coarse particles in the whole year and in winter, but not in summer. NO2 and CO were also significantly associated with daily mortality, as was O3 in the warmer months. No consistent effect was observed for SO2. Given particle composition in Santiago, these results suggest that combustion-generated pollutants, especially from motor vehicles, may be associated with increased mortality. Temperature was closely associated with mortality. High temperatures led to deaths on the same day, while low temperatures lead to deaths from 1 to 4 days later.

Cost-effectiveness of short-term tests for carcinogenicity

Abstract We compare the second generation of the first commercial hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), the Toyota Prius, to the conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) Toyota Corolla. The more complicated and expensive Prius has lower pollutant and carbon dioxide emissions and better fuel economy than the Corolla. In a world of limited resources and many petroleum users and emissions sources, the policy question is whether the best use of resources is to build hybrids, to improve the fuel economy and environmental emissions of other mobile sources, or to devote the resources to other environmental projects. We find that the Prius is not cost-effective in improving fuel economy or lowering emissions. For the Prius to be attractive to US consumers, the price of gasoline would have to be more than three times greater than at present. To be attractive to regulators, the social value of abating tailpipe emissions would have to be 14 times greater than conventional values. Alternatively, the value of abating greenhouse gas emissions would have to be at least

Collusion in Oligopoly: An Experiment on the Effect of Numbers and Information

217/t. There are many opportunities for abating pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions at lower cost. We conclude that hybrids will not have significant sales unless fuel prices rise several-fold or unless regulators mandate them.

A Life-Cycle Comparison of Alternative Automobile Fuels

Most chemicals to which we are exposed are not properly tested for carcinogenicity. The latest methods of in vitro testing provide a way of screening with sufficient accuracy to remedy this situation.

An Analysis of the Association Between U.S. Mortality and Air Pollution

I. Introduction, 240. — II. Price variations models of oligopoly, 241. — III. An experimental oligopoly market, 242. — IV. Hypotheses, 248. — V. Procedure, 249. — VI. Results, 251. — VII. Discussion, 257. — VIII. Summary and conclusions, 259.