Lev A. Pustil'Nik

Monitoring and forecasting of great solar proton events using the neutron monitor network in real time

Obtaining online information on the onset of great solar energetic particle (SEP) events from real-time data of the neutron monitor network (NMN) is considered and the corresponding algorithm and program are proposed. Determination of the particle energy spectrum outside the atmosphere at different moments of the flare is considered on the basis of coupling functions method. The spectra defined in diffusion and kinetic approaches are compared. Using this information, the time of the SEP ejection into solar wind, the energy spectrum of a SEP event in the source inside the solar corona, and the SEP diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary space during the flare can be estimated. In this work, the significant possibility of the expected SEP fluxes and the energy spectrum forecasting on the early part of the increasing SEP intensity (about 20-30 min after the onset) is considered. Available satellite data in real-time scale combined with real time-data from neutron monitors (NM) are used for extrapolation of this forecast to the region of very small energy particles. The method is checked on the SEP event of September 1989. It is important to note that the accuracy of the developed method sufficiently increases with the increasing dangerous level of the SEP event. The method is not CPU damaging and can run in real time, providing inexpensive means of SEP prediction.

Using ground-level cosmic ray observations for automatically generating predictions of hazardous energetic particle levels

Abstract It is well known that in periods of great flare energetic particle (FEP) ground events, fluxes of energetic particles can be so big that memory of computers and other electronics in space may be damaged, and satellite and spacecraft operations can be seriously degraded. In these periods it is necessary to switch off some part of electronics for a few hours to protect computer memories. The problem is how to forecast exactly these dangerous phenomena. We show that exact forecasts can be made by using high-energy particles (few GeV/nucleon and higher) whose transportation from the Sun is characterized by much bigger diffusion coefficients than lower energy particles. High-energy particles arrive from the Sun much earlier (8–20 minutes after acceleration and escaping into solar wind) than the lower energy particles that damage electronics (about 30–60 minutes later). We describe here the principles and operation of automated programs “FEP-Search-1 min”, “FEP-Search-2 min”,and “FEPSearch-5 min”, developed and checked in the Emilio Segre Observatory (ESO) of the Israel Cosmic Ray Center (2025 m above sea level, R c =10.8 GV). The determination of increasing flux is made by comparison with the intensity, averaged from 120 to 61 minutes, prior to the current one-minute data. For each minute of data the program “FEP-Search-1 min” is run. If the result is negative (no simultaneous increase in both channels of total intensity ≥ 2.5 σ 1 , where σ 1 is the standard deviation for one minute of observation in one channel [for ESO σ 1 =1.4 %), start the program “FEP-Search-2 min”, using two minute averages with σ 2 = σ 1 /√2, and so on. If any positive result is obtained, the “FEP-Search” programs check the next minute of data. If the result is again positive, automatically run the on-line the programs “FEP-Collect” and “FEP-Research” that determine the expected flux and spectrum and generate automatic alerts. These programs are described in Dorman and Zukerman (2001).

SPACE CLIMATE MANIFESTATION IN EARTH PRICES - FROM MEDIEVAL ENGLAND UP TO MODERN U.S.A.

In this study we continue to search for possible manifestations of space weather influence on prices of agricultural products and consumables. We note that the connection between solar activity and prices is based on the causal chain that includes several nonlinear transition elements. These nonlinear elements are characterized by threshold sensitivity to external parameters and lead to very inhomogeneous local sensitivity of the price to space weather conditions. It is noted that “soft type” models are the most adequate for description of this class of connections. Two main observational effects suitable for testing causal connections of this type of sensitivity are considered: burst-like price reactions on changes in solar activity and price asymmetry for selected phases of the sunspot cycle. The connection, discovered earlier for wheat prices of Medieval England, is examined in this work on the basis of another 700-year data set of consumable prices in England. Using the same technique as in the previous part of our work (Pustilnik and Yom Din, 2004) we show that statistical parameters of the interval distributions for price bursts of consumable basket and for sunspot minimum states are similar to one another, as was reported earlier for wheat price bursts. Possible sources of these consistencies between three different multiyear samples are discussed. For a search of possible manifestations of the ‘space weather -wheat market’ connection in modern time, we analyze dynamics of wheat prices in the U.S.A. in the twentieth century. We show that the wheat prices revealed a maximum/minimum price asymmetry consistent with the phases of the sunspot cycle. We discuss possible explanations of this observed asymmetry, unexpected under conditions of globalization of the modern wheat market.

On possible influence of space weather on agricultural markets: Necessary conditions and probable scenarios

We present the results of study of a possible relationship between the space weather and terrestrial markets of agricultural products. It is shown that to implement the possible effect of space weather on the terrestrial harvests and prices, a simultaneous fulfillment of three conditions is required: 1) sensitivity of local weather (cloud cover, atmospheric circulation) to the state of space weather; 2) sensitivity of the area-specific agricultural crops to the weather anomalies (belonging to the area of risk farming); 3) relative isolation of the market, making it difficult to damp the price hikes by the external food supplies. Four possible scenarios of the market response to the modulations of local terrestrial weather via the solar activity are described. The data sources and analysismethods applied to detect this relationship are characterized. We describe the behavior of 22 European markets during the medieval period, in particular, during the Maunder minimum (1650–1715). We demonstrate a reliable manifestation of the influence of space weather on prices, discovered in the statistics of intervals between the price hikes and phase price asymmetry. We show that the effects of phase price asymmetry persist even during the early modern period in the U.S. in the production of the durum wheat. Within the proposed approach, we analyze the statistics of depopulation in the eighteenth and nineteenth century Iceland, induced by the famine due to a sharp livestock reduction owing to, in its turn, the lack of foodstuff due to the local weather anomalies. A high statistical significance of temporal matching of these events with the periods of extreme solar activity is demonstrated. We discuss the possible consequences of the observed global climate change in the formation of new areas of risk farming, sensitive to space weather.

Forward to automatic forecasting and estimation of expected radiation hazards level

We present method of automatically forecasting of solar cosmic ray (SCR) impact caused by solar flare and estimation of radiation hazard level. We use model of solar cosmic ray diffusion in general form and coupling functions for neutron monitors network with different altitudes and cut-off rigidities, including also space detectors like GOES-11, 12. Another observational data for estimation of energy spectra is multiplicity of CR registration by some neutron monitors. We demonstrate algorithms for automatic estimation of the event starting, determination time-evolution of SCR in space by coupling functions in the frame of spectrographic method, solving inverse problem for SCR generation in solar corona and propagation in the interplanetary space, automatic determining on the basis of CR observation data parameters of SCR generation in solar corona, escaping into solar wind, and propagation in space. We show that on the basis of these parameters it can be automatic forecasting on the basis of first about 0.5 hour data expected level of radiation hazards for full time of event (up to about 48 hours) for objects in space on different distances from the Sun, in magnetosphere at different orbits, and in atmosphere at different altitudes and cutoff rigidities. If for some objects expected level of radiation hazards will be dangerous, after about 0.5 hour from event beginning will be formatted and sent corresponding Alert. We take into account that for the first about 0.5 hour data from event beginning, when coming mostly only small flux of high energy particles – radiation hazards expected very small in comparison with more delay time when coming main part of SCR with energy uf0a3 1 GeV, formatted sufficient part of radiation hazards.

On Non-Universality of Solar-Terrestrial Connections

Discussion on principal possibility of causal chain from solar activity and space weather to the earth weather and agriculture price dynamics continue more than 200 years from first publication of Herschel (1801) up to the current time. We analyze main arguments of two sides and show that root of the critics of this possibility based on wide accepted conception in universality of solar-terrestrial connection (like to daily and season variations) what suggest that effect must be observed in any historical periods and in all regions. We show that expectation is not correct because solar-terrestrial connections generated by different sides of solar activity with different agents of solar magnetic dynamo process have different and non-stable phase pattern. We remind that realization of causal chain “solar activity/space weather” – “earth weather” – “crops” –“market reaction” may have place only in specific historical periods and in specific zone where and when the three necessary conditions will be complete. This limitation leads to possibility of four possible scenarios of market reaction. We show that the critical arguments used for rejected principal possibility of causal connection “solar activity” – Earth agriculture markets” based on ignoring of necessity of 3 necessary condition for realization of the causal chain and using for analysis periods and location, when and where necessary condition are not completed