Lia Florey

Impact of Malaria Control on Mortality and Anemia among Tanzanian Children Less than Five Years of Age, 1999–2010

Background Mainland Tanzania scaled up multiple malaria control interventions between 1999 and 2010. We evaluated whether, and to what extent, reductions in all-cause under-five child mortality (U5CM) tracked with malaria control intensification during this period. Methods Four nationally representative household surveys permitted trend analysis for malaria intervention coverage, severe anemia (hemoglobin <8 g/dL) prevalence (SAP) among children 6–59 months, and U5CM rates stratified by background characteristics, age, and malaria endemicity. Prevalence of contextual factors (e.g., vaccination, nutrition) likely to influence U5CM were also assessed. Population attributable risk percentage (PAR%) estimates for malaria interventions and contextual factors that changed over time were used to estimate magnitude of impact on U5CM. Results Household ownership of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) rose from near zero in 1999 to 64% (95% CI, 61.7–65.2) in 2010. Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy reached 26% (95% CI, 23.6–28.0) by 2010. Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine replaced chloroquine in 2002 and artemisinin-based combination therapy was introduced in 2007. SAP among children 6–59 months declined 50% between 2005 (11.1%; 95% CI, 10.0–12.3%) and 2010 (5.5%; 95% CI, 4.7–6.4%) and U5CM declined by 45% between baseline (1995–9) and endpoint (2005–9), from 148 to 81 deaths/1000 live births, respectively. Mortality declined 55% among children 1–23 months of age in higher malaria endemicity areas. A large reduction in U5CM was attributable to ITNs (PAR% = 11) with other malaria interventions adding further gains. Multiple contextual factors also contributed to survival gains. Conclusion Marked declines in U5CM occurred in Tanzania between 1999 and 2010 with high impact from ITNs and ACTs. High-risk children (1–24 months of age in high malaria endemicity) experienced the greatest declines in mortality and SAP. Malaria control should remain a policy priority to sustain and further accelerate progress in child survival.

Equity Trends in Ownership of Insecticide-Treated Nets in 19 Sub-Saharan African countries/Tendances En Matiere D'egalite De Possession De Moustiquaires Impregnees Dlnsecticide Dans 19 Pays d'Afrique subsaharienne/Tendencias De Equidad En la Propiedad De Mosquiteros Tratados Con Insecticida En 19 Paises del Africa Subsahariana

Abstract Objective To examine the change in equity of insecticide-treated net (ITN) ownership among 19 malaria-endemic countries in sub-Saharan Africa before and after the launch of the Cover The Bed Net Gap initiative. Methods To assess change in equity in ownership of at least one ITN by households from different wealth quintiles, we used data from Demographic and Health Surveys and Malaria Indicator Surveys. We assigned surveys conducted before the launch (2003–2008) as baseline surveys and surveys conducted between 2009–2014 as endpoint surveys. We did country-level and pooled multicountry analyses. Pooled analyses based on malaria transmission risk, were done by dividing geographical zones into either low- and intermediate-risk or high-risk. To assess changes in equity, we calculated the Lorenz concentration curve and concentration index (C-index). Findings Out of the 19 countries we assessed, 13 countries showed improved equity between baseline and endpoint surveys and two countries showed no changes. Four countries displayed worsened equity, two favouring the poorer households and two favouring the richer. The multicountry pooled analysis showed an improvement in equity (baseline survey C-index: 0.11; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.10 to 0.11; and endpoint survey C-index: 0.00; 95% CI: −0.01 to 0.00). Similar trends were seen in both low- and intermediate-risk and high-risk zones. Conclusion The mass ITN distribution campaigns to increase coverage, linked to the launch of the Cover The Bed Net Gap initiative, have led to improvement in coverage of ITN ownership across sub-Saharan Africa with significant reduction in inequity among wealth quintiles.

Impact of Insecticide-Treated Net Ownership on All-Cause Child Mortality in Malawi, 2006-2010.

Abstract. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have been shown to be highly effective at reducing malaria morbidity and mortality in children. However, there are limited studies that assess the association between increasing ITN coverage and child mortality over time, at the national level, and under programmatic conditions. Two analytic approaches were used to examine this association: a retrospective cohort analysis of individual children and a district-level ecologic analysis. To evaluate the association between household ITN ownership and all-cause child mortality (ACCM) at the individual level, data from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) were modeled in a Cox proportional hazards framework while controlling for numerous environmental, household, and individual confounders through the use of exact matching. To evaluate population-level association between ITN ownership and ACCM between 2006 and 2010, program ITN distribution data and mortality data from the 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and the 2010 DHS were aggregated at the district level and modeled using negative binomial regression. In the Cox model controlling for household, child and maternal health factors, children between 1 and 59 months in households owning an ITN had significantly lower mortality compared with those without an ITN (hazard ratio = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62–90). In the district-level model, higher ITN ownership was significantly associated with lower ACCM (incidence rate ratio = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.60–0.98). These findings suggest that increasing ITN ownership may have contributed to the decline in ACCM during 2006–2010 in Malawi and represent a novel use of district-level data from nationally representative surveys.

Impact of Scale-up of Maternal and Delivery Care on Reductions in Neonatal Mortality in USAID MCH Priority Countries, 2000–2010

Impressive global gains in under-five mortality between 2000 and 2010 have been accompanied by more modest reductions in neonatal mortality . Of the 18 USAID priority countries for maternal and child health with two Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) available around the years 2000 and 2010, only six have shown statistically significant reductions in neonatal mortality within the study population of most recent children born in the five years preceding the survey. The study investigates the extent to which scale-up of maternal and delivery care is associated with reductions in neonatal mortality in the six countries. We find surprisingly little evidence that changes in coverage of measurable indicators of maternal and delivery care contributed to the improvements in neonatal survival . In the three malarious countries with complete mosquito bednet data for both surveys, household ownership of a mosquito bednet stands out as a driver of the observed reductions. This finding highlights the importance of malaria control in the arsenal of maternal and child health interventions. Overall, weak associations between other indicators of maternal and delivery care and neonatal survival were observed. This may be the result of limitations of population-based surveys to measure accurately the protective aspects of the interventions. The weak findings may also point to an issue of quality of care, highlighting the need for newborn survival strategies to emphasize strengthening health systems and improve quality of care alongside efforts to increase use of delivery health services.

Implementing Impact Evaluations of Malaria Control Interventions: Process, Lessons Learned, and Recommendations

Abstract. As funding for malaria control increased considerably over the past 10 years resulting in the expanded coverage of malaria control interventions, so did the need to measure the impact of these investments on malaria morbidity and mortality. Members of the Roll Back Malaria (RBM) Partnership undertook impact evaluations of malaria control programs at a time when there was little guidance in terms of the process for conducting an impact evaluation of a national-level malaria control program. The President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI), as a member of the RBM Partnership, has provided financial and technical support for impact evaluations in 13 countries to date. On the basis of these experiences, PMI and its partners have developed a streamlined process for conducting the evaluations with a set of lessons learned and recommendations. Chief among these are: to ensure country ownership and involvement in the evaluations; to engage stakeholders throughout the process; to coordinate evaluations among interested partners to avoid duplication of efforts; to tailor the evaluation to the particular country context; to develop a standard methodology for the evaluations and a streamlined process for completion within a reasonable time; and to develop tailored dissemination products on the evaluation for a broad range of stakeholders. These key lessons learned and resulting recommendations will guide future impact evaluations of malaria control programs and other health programs.

Impact Evaluation of Malaria Control Interventions on Morbidity and All-Cause Child Mortality in Rwanda, 2000–2010

Abstract. The impressive decline in child mortality that occurred in Rwanda from 1996–2000 to 2006–2010 coincided with a period of rapid increase of malaria control interventions such as indoor residual spraying (IRS); insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution and use, and improved malaria case management. The impact of these interventions was examined through ecological correlation analysis, and robust decomposition analysis of contextual factors on all-cause child mortality. Child mortality fell 61% during the evaluation period and prevalence of severe anemia in children 6–23 months declined 71% between 2005 and 2010. These changes in malaria morbidity and mortality occurred concurrently with a substantial increase in vector control activities. ITN use increased among children under five, from 4% to 70%. The IRS program began in 2007 and covered 1.3 million people in the highest burden districts by 2010. At the same time, diagnosis and treatment with an effective antimalarial expanded nationally, and included making services available to children under the age of 5 at the community level. The percentage of children under 5 who sought care for a fever increased from 26% in 2000 to 48% in 2010. Multivariable models of the change in child mortality between 2000 and 2010 using nationally representative data reveal the importance of increasing ITN ownership in explaining the observed mortality declines. Taken as a whole, the evidence supports the conclusion that malaria control interventions contributed to the observed decline in child mortality in Rwanda from 2000 to 2010, even in a context of improving socioeconomic, maternal, and child health conditions.

Malaria Control Interventions Contributed to Declines in Malaria Parasitemia, Severe Anemia, and All-Cause Mortality in Children Less Than 5 Years of Age in Malawi, 2000–2010

Abstract. Malaria control intervention coverage increased nationwide in Malawi during 2000–2010. Trends in intervention coverage were assessed against trends in malaria parasite prevalence, severe anemia (hemoglobin < 8 g/dL), and all-cause mortality in children under 5 years of age (ACCM) using nationally representative household surveys. Associations between insecticide-treated net (ITN) ownership, malaria morbidity, and ACCM were also assessed. Household ITN ownership increased from 27.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 25.9–29.0) in 2004 to 56.8% (95% CI = 55.6–58.1) in 2010. Similarly intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy coverage increased from 28.2% (95% CI = 26.7–29.8) in 2000 to 55.0% (95% CI = 53.4–56.6) in 2010. Malaria parasite prevalence decreased significantly from 60.5% (95% CI = 53.0–68.0) in 2001 to 20.4% (95% CI = 15.7–25.1) in 2009 in children aged 6–35 months. Severe anemia prevalence decreased from 20.4% (95% CI: 17.3–24.0) in 2004 to 13.1% (95% CI = 11.0–15.4) in 2010 in children aged 6–23 months. ACCM decreased 41%, from 188.6 deaths per 1,000 live births (95% CI = 179.1–198.0) during 1996–2000, to 112.1 deaths per 1,000 live births (95% CI = 105.8–118.5) during 2006–2010. When controlling for other covariates in random effects logistic regression models, household ITN ownership was protective against malaria parasitemia in children (odds ratio [OR] = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.72–0.92) and severe anemia (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.72–0.94). After considering the magnitude of changes in malaria intervention coverage and nonmalaria factors, and given the contribution of malaria to all-cause mortality in malaria-endemic countries, the substantial increase in malaria control interventions likely improved child survival in Malawi during 2000–2010.

Assessing whether universal coverage with insecticide-treated nets has been achieved: is the right indicator being used?

Background/methodsInsecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are the primary tool for malaria vector control in sub-Saharan Africa, and have been responsible for an estimated two-thirds of the reduction in the global burden of malaria in recent years. While the ultimate goal is high levels of ITN use to confer protection against infected mosquitoes, it is widely accepted that ITN use must be understood in the context of ITN availability. However, despite nearly a decade of universal coverage campaigns, no country has achieved a measured level of 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people in a national survey. Eighty-six public datasets from 33 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (2005–2017) were used to explore the causes of failure to achieve universal coverage at the household level, understand the relationships between the various ITN indicators, and further define their respective programmatic utility.ResultsThe proportion of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people did not exceed 60% at the national level in any survey, except in Uganda’s 2014 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS). At 80% population ITN access, the expected proportion of households with 1 ITN for 2 people is only 60% (p = 0.003 R2 = 0.92), because individuals in households with some but not enough ITNs are captured as having access, but the household does not qualify as having 1 ITN for 2 people. Among households with 7–9 people, mean population ITN access was 41.0% (95% CI 36.5–45.6), whereas only 6.2% (95% CI 4.0–8.3) of these same households owned at least 1 ITN for 2 people. On average, 60% of the individual protection measured by the population access indicator is obscured when focus is put on the household “universal coverage” indicator. The practice of limiting households to a maximum number of ITNs in mass campaigns severely restricts the ability of large households to obtain enough ITNs for their entire family.ConclusionsThe two household-level indicators—one representing minimal coverage, the other only ‘universal’ coverage—provide an incomplete and potentially misleading picture of personal protection and the success of an ITN distribution programme. Under current ITN distribution strategies, the global malaria community cannot expect countries to reach 80% of households owning 1 ITN for 2 people at a national level. When programmes assess the success of ITN distribution activities, population access to ITNs should be considered as the better indicator of “universal coverage,” because it is based on people as the unit of analysis.

Secondary analysis of national and subnational survey data to evaluate the impact of the scale-up of malaria control interventions in Malawi, 2000–10

Abstract Background Malaria control interventions, including insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), were scaled up nationwide in Malawi during 2000–10. We assessed trends and associations of ITN coverage, malaria morbidity, and all-cause mortality in children under 5 years of age under programmatic conditions in Malawi during 2000–10. Methods Trends in household ITN ownership, malaria parasitaemia, and anaemia (haemoglobin Findings Household ITN ownership increased from 27·4% (95% CI 25·9–29·0) in 2004, to 56·8% (55·6–58·1) in 2010. Malaria parasitaemia decreased from 60·5% (95% CI 53·0–68·0) in 2001, to 20·4% (15·7–25·1) in 2009, in children aged 6–35 months. Anaemia decreased from 20·4% (95% CI 17·3–24·0) in 2004, to 13·1% (11·0–15·4) in 2010, in children aged 6–23 months. ACCM decreased by 41% from 188·3 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% CI 179·2–197·3) during 1996–2000, to 112·1 per 1000 livebirths (106·1–118·0) during 2006–10. Household ITN ownership was protective against malaria parasitaemia (odds ratio 0·81, 95% CI 0·72–0·92) and anaemia (0·77, 0·70–0·86) after controlling for other covariates. ITN distributions per 1000 population were not significantly associated with malaria cases at IDSR facilities. District-level household ITN ownership was significantly associated with child survival (incidence rate ratio 0·55, 95% CI 0·31–0·99) after controlling for other covariates. Interpretation Household ITN ownership was protective against malaria parasitaemia, anaemia, and child mortality. Scale-up of malaria control interventions during 2000–10 was likely associated with improved child survival in Malawi. Funding Financial support for this study was received from the United States Presidents Malaria Initiative.