Liam G Glynn

The prevalence of multimorbidity in primary care and its effect on health care utilization and cost

INTRODUCTION Multimorbidity is common among the heterogeneous primary care population, but little data exist on its association with health care utilization or cost. OBJECTIVE The aim of this observational study was to examine the prevalence and associated health care utilization and cost of patients with multimorbidity. METHODS All patients >50 years of age were eligible for the study which took place in three primary care practices in the West of Ireland. Chronic medical conditions and associated health care utilization in primary and secondary care were identified through patient record review. RESULTS In a sample of 3309 patients in the community, the prevalence of multimorbidity was 66.2% (95% CI: 64.5-67.8) in those >50 years of age. Health care utilization and cost was significantly increased among patients with multimorbidity (P < 0.001). After multivariate adjustment for age, gender and free medical care eligibility, the addition of each chronic condition led to an associated increase in primary care consultations (P = 0.001) (11.9 versus 3.7 for >4 conditions versus 0 conditions); hospital out-patient visits (P = 0.001) (3.6 versus 0.6 for >4 conditions versus 0 conditions); hospital admissions (P = 0.01) [adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 4.51 for >4 conditions versus 0 conditions] and total health care costs (P < 0.001) (€4,096.86 versus €760.20 for >4 conditions versus 0 conditions) over the previous 12 months. CONCLUSIONS Multimorbidity is very common in primary care and in a system with strong gatekeeping is associated with high health care utilization and cost across the health care system. Interventions to address quality and cost associated with multimorbidity must focus on primary as well as secondary care.

Prevalence, determinants and patterns of multimorbidity in primary care: a systematic review of observational studies.

Introduction Multimorbidity is a major concern in primary care. Nevertheless, evidence of prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity, and their determinants, are scarce. The aim of this study is to systematically review studies of the prevalence, patterns and determinants of multimorbidity in primary care. Methods Systematic review of literature published between 1961 and 2013 and indexed in Ovid (CINAHL, PsychINFO, Medline and Embase) and Web of Knowledge. Studies were selected according to eligibility criteria of addressing prevalence, determinants, and patterns of multimorbidity and using a pretested proforma in primary care. The quality and risk of bias were assessed using STROBE criteria. Two researchers assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion (Kappa  = 0.86). Results We identified 39 eligible publications describing studies that included a total of 70,057,611 patients in 12 countries. The number of health conditions analysed per study ranged from 5 to 335, with multimorbidity prevalence ranging from 12.9% to 95.1%. All studies observed a significant positive association between multimorbidity and age (odds ratio [OR], 1.26 to 227.46), and lower socioeconomic status (OR, 1.20 to 1.91). Positive associations with female gender and mental disorders were also observed. The most frequent patterns of multimorbidity included osteoarthritis together with cardiovascular and/or metabolic conditions. Conclusions Well-established determinants of multimorbidity include age, lower socioeconomic status and gender. The most prevalent conditions shape the patterns of multimorbidity. However, the limitations of the current evidence base means that further and better designed studies are needed to inform policy, research and clinical practice, with the goal of improving health-related quality of life for patients with multimorbidity. Standardization of the definition and assessment of multimorbidity is essential in order to better understand this phenomenon, and is a necessary immediate step.

Helping each other to learn – a process evaluation of peer assisted learning

BackgroundThe benefits of Peer Assisted Learning (PAL) are well established with positive effects on examination scores, student satisfaction and personal and professional development reported. PAL is increasingly utilised as a resource within medical education where the restrictions on resources have forced teachers to look at creating new educational environments which can be delivered at a lower cost. This study sought to evaluate the processes at work as the emphasis of PAL research to date has largely been on the consideration of student outcomes.MethodsFifth-year medical undergraduates, who had completed their communication skills modular training and attended a preparatory workshop, facilitated a role-play session for their second-year colleagues within an Early Patient Contact programme. Semi-structured interviews and focus groups were used to collect data at different time points in order to establish the views of peer learners and tutors towards this new method of teaching. The data was analysed according to the principles framework analysis using N-vivo software. Themes were shared and debated with the multidisciplinary team of authors and a concordance of views on common themes was reached after discussion and debate.ResultsAnalysis of the data resulted in the emergence of three thematic categories: Learning Environment, Educational Exchange and Communication and Modelling. The data demonstrated a concordance of the views between peer tutors and learners on barriers and levers of this approach as well as a heightened awareness of the learning environment and the educational exchange occurring therein.ConclusionThe data is significant as it not only demonstrates a high level of acceptability among tutors and learners for PAL but also indicates the reciprocity of educational exchange that appears to occur within the PAL setting. This study highlights some of the unique characteristics of PAL and we recommend the development of further qualitative studies around peer learners and tutors views of this process.

Effectiveness of a smartphone application to promote physical activity in primary care: the SMART MOVE randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND Physical inactivity is a major, potentially modifiable, risk factor for cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other chronic diseases. Effective, simple, and generalisable interventions that will increase physical activity in populations are needed. AIM To evaluate the effectiveness of a smartphone application (app) to increase physical activity in primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING An 8-week, open-label, randomised controlled trial in rural, primary care in the west of Ireland. METHOD Android smartphone users >16 years of age were recruited. All participants were provided with similar physical activity goals and information on the benefits of exercise. The intervention group was provided with a smartphone app and detailed instructions on how to use it to achieve these goals. The primary outcome was change in physical activity, as measured by a daily step count between baseline and follow-up. RESULTS A total of 139 patients were referred by their primary care health professional or self-referred. In total, 37 (27%) were screened out and 12 (9%) declined to participate, leaving 90 (65%) patients who were randomised. Of these, 78 provided baseline data (intervention = 37; control = 41) and 77 provided outcome data (intervention = 37; control = 40). The mean daily step count at baseline for intervention and control groups was 4365 and 5138 steps per day respectively. After adjusting, there was evidence of a significant treatment effect (P = 0.009); the difference in mean improvement in daily step count from week 1 to week 8 inclusive was 1029 (95% confidence interval 214 to 1843) steps per day, favouring the intervention. Improvements in physical activity in the intervention group were sustained until the end of the trial. CONCLUSION A simple smartphone app significantly increased physical activity over 8 weeks in a primary care population.

Selection bias resulting from the requirement for prior consent in observational research: a community cohort of people with ischaemic heart disease.

Objective: To evaluate differences between adults who consent to participate in observational research and those who do not. Design: Prospective, population-based cohort study. Setting: 35 randomised Irish general practices. Participants: 1609 adults with ischaemic heart disease identified in 2000–1. Intervention: Medical records search, postal questionnaire and consent form in 2005–6. Main outcome measures: Differences in demographic and prognostic risk factors between consenters and non-consenters. Results: At follow-up, charts were located for 1592 patients (98.9%). Questionnaires were sent to 1269 patients and 876 were returned (69%). Of these, 574 (65.5%) gave consent for participation in further research. Logistic regression identified four characteristics as independently positively predictive of consent to participation in further research among questionnaire responders: having undergone percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty was associated with an increased odds of consent, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.77 (95% CI 1.09 to 2.86), as was a last recorded blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg (OR = 1.45 (1.00 to 2.09)), a last recorded total cholesterol level <5 mmol/l (OR = 1.71 (1.16 to 2.54)) and being an ex-smoker rather than a current smoker or non-smoker (OR = 1.73 (1.17 to 2.57)). Conclusions: This research demonstrates the potential impact of consent bias in observational research on ischaemic heart disease, a disease of everyday clinical importance in Europe. It demonstrates that clinically important prognostic variables may be associated with consent preferences. Future cohorts, dependent upon prior written consent, may contain disproportionate numbers of those who have made healthy lifestyle decisions, have previously benefited from treatment or whose clinical risk factors are already well managed. As a result, the generalisability of such research may be diminished and the effects of treatments over- or underestimated.

SMART MOVE - a smartphone-based intervention to promote physical activity in primary care: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BackgroundSedentary lifestyles are now becoming a major concern for governments of developed and developing countries with physical inactivity related to increased all-cause mortality, lower quality of life, and increased risk of obesity, diabetes, hypertension and many other chronic diseases. The powerful onboard computing capacity of smartphones, along with the unique relationship individuals have with their mobile phones, suggests that mobile devices have the potential to influence behavior. However, no previous trials have been conducted using smartphone technology to promote physical activity. This project has the potential to provide robust evidence in this area of innovation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a smartphone application as an intervention to promote physical activity in primary care.Methods/designA two-group, parallel randomized controlled trial (RCT) with a main outcome measure of mean difference in daily step count between baseline and follow up over eight weeks. A minimum of 80 active android smartphone users over 16 years of age who are able to undertake moderate physical activity are randomly assigned to the intervention group (n = 40) or to a control group (n = 40) for an eight week period. After randomization, all participants will complete a baseline period of one week during which a baseline mean daily step count will be established. The intervention group will be instructed in the usability features of the smartphone application, will be encouraged to try to achieve 10,000 steps per day as an exercise goal and will be given an exercise promotion leaflet. The control group will be encouraged to try to walk an additional 30 minutes per day along with their normal activity (the equivalent of 10,000 steps) as an exercise goal and will be given an exercise promotion leaflet. The primary outcome is mean difference in daily step count between baseline and follow-up. Secondary outcomes are systolic and diastolic blood pressure, resting heart rate, mental health score using HADS and quality of life score using Euroqol. Randomization and allocation to the intervention and groups will be carried out by an independent researcher, ensuring the allocation sequence is concealed from the study researchers until the interventions are assigned. The primary analysis is based on mean daily step count, comparing the mean difference in daily step count between the baseline and the trial periods in the intervention and control groups at follow up.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials ISRCTN99944116

Multimorbidity and risk among patients with established cardiovascular disease: a cohort study

BACKGROUND Most patients managed in primary care have more than one condition. Multimorbidity presents challenges for the patient and the clinician, not only in terms of the process of care, but also in terms of management and risk assessment. AIM To examine the effect of the presence of chronic kidney disease and diabetes on mortality and morbidity among patients with established cardiovascular disease. DESIGN OF STUDY Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Random selection of 35 general practices in the west of Ireland. METHOD A practice-based sample of 1609 patients with established cardiovascular disease was generated in 2000-2001 and followed for 5 years. The primary endpoint was death from any cause and the secondary endpoint was a cardiovascular composite endpoint that included death from a cardiovascular cause or any of the following cardiovascular events: myocardial infarction, heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, or stroke. RESULTS Risk of death from any cause was significantly increased in patients with increased multimorbidity (P<0.001), as was the risk of the cardiovascular composite endpoint (P<0.001). Patients with cardiovascular disease and diabetes had a similar survival pattern to those with cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease, but experienced more cardiovascular events. CONCLUSION Level of multimorbidity is an independent predictor of prognosis among patients with established cardiovascular disease. In such patients, the presence of chronic kidney disease carries a similar mortality risk to diabetes. Multimorbidity may be a useful factor in prioritising management of patients in the community with significant cardiovascular risk.

Patients’ experiences of using a smartphone application to increase physical activity: the SMART MOVE qualitative study in primary care

Background Regular physical activity is known to help prevent and treat numerous non-communicable diseases. Smartphone applications (apps) have been shown to increase physical activity in primary care but little is known regarding the views of patients using such technology or how such technology may change behaviour. Aim To explore patients’ views and experiences of using smartphones to promote physical activity in primary care. Design and setting This qualitative study was embedded within the SMART MOVE randomised controlled trial, which used an app (Accupedo-Pro Pedometer) to promote physical activity in three primary care centres in the west of Ireland. Method Taped and transcribed semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of 12 participants formed the basis of the investigation. Framework analysis was used to analyse the data. Results Four themes emerged from the analysis: transforming relationships with exercise; persuasive technology tools; usability; and the cascade effect. The app appeared to facilitate a sequential and synergistic process of positive change, which occurred in the relationship between the participants and their exercise behaviour; the study has termed this the ‘Know-Check-Move’ effect. Usability challenges included increased battery consumption and adjusting to carrying the smartphone on their person. There was also evidence of a cascade effect involving the families and communities of participants. Conclusion Notwithstanding technological challenges, an app has the potential to positively transform, in a unique way, participants’ relationships with exercise. Such interventions can also have an associated cascade effect within their wider families and communities.

Human Centred Design Considerations for Connected Health Devices for the Older Adult

Connected health devices are generally designed for unsupervised use, by non-healthcare professionals, facilitating independent control of the individuals own healthcare. Older adults are major users of such devices and are a population significantly increasing in size. This group presents challenges due to the wide spectrum of capabilities and attitudes towards technology. The fit between capabilities of the user and demands of the device can be optimised in a process called Human Centred Design. Here we review examples of some connected health devices chosen by random selection, assess older adult known capabilities and attitudes and finally make analytical recommendations for design approaches and design specifications.

Multimorbidity's research challenges and priorities from a clinical perspective: The case of ‘Mr Curran’

ABSTRACT Older patients, suffering from numerous diseases and taking multiple medications are the rule rather than the exception in primary care. A manifold of medical conditions are often associated with poor outcomes, and their multiple medications raise additional risks of polypharmacy. Such patients account for most healthcare expenditures. Effective approaches are needed to manage such complex patients in primary care. This paper describes the results of a scoping exercise, including a two-day workshop with 17 professionals from six countries, experienced in general practice and primary care research as well as epidemiology, clinical pharmacology, gerontology and methodology. This was followed by a consensus process investigating the challenges and core questions for multimorbidity research in primary care from a clinical perspective and presents examples of the best research practice. Current approaches in measuring and clustering multimorbidity inform policy-makers and researchers, but research is needed to provide support in clinical decision making. Multimorbidity presents a complexity of conditions leading to individual patients needs and demanding complex processes in clinical decision making. The identification of patterns presupposes the development of strategies on how to manage multimorbidity and polypharmacy. Interventions have to be complex and multifaceted, and their evaluation poses numerous methodological challenges in study design, outcome measurement and analysis. Overall, it can be seen that complexity is a main underlying theme. Moreover, flexible study designs, outcome parameters and evaluation strategies are needed to account for this complexity.