Liangzhe Chen

Flu Gone Viral: Syndromic Surveillance of Flu on Twitter Using Temporal Topic Models

Surveillance of epidemic outbreaks and spread from social media is an important tool for governments and public health authorities. Machine learning techniques for now casting the flu have made significant inroads into correlating social media trends to case counts and prevalence of epidemics in a population. There is a disconnect between data-driven methods for forecasting flu incidence and epidemiological models that adopt a state based understanding of transitions, that can lead to sub-optimal predictions. Furthermore, models for epidemiological activity and social activity like on Twitter predict different shapes and have important differences. We propose a temporal topic model to capture hidden states of a user from his tweets and aggregate states in a geographical region for better estimation of trends. We show that our approach helps fill the gap between phenomenological methods for disease surveillance and epidemiological models. We validate this approach by modeling the flu using Twitter in multiple countries of South America. We demonstrate that our model can consistently outperform plain vocabulary assessment in flu case-count predictions, and at the same time get better flu-peak predictions than competitors. We also show that our fine-grained modeling can reconcile some contrasting behaviors between epidemiological and social models.

Syndromic surveillance of Flu on Twitter using weakly supervised temporal topic models

Surveillance of epidemic outbreaks and spread from social media is an important tool for governments and public health authorities. Machine learning techniques for nowcasting the Flu have made significant inroads into correlating social media trends to case counts and prevalence of epidemics in a population. There is a disconnect between data-driven methods for forecasting Flu incidence and epidemiological models that adopt a state based understanding of transitions, that can lead to sub-optimal predictions. Furthermore, models for epidemiological activity and social activity like on Twitter predict different shapes and have important differences. In this paper, we propose two temporal topic models (one unsupervised model as well as one improved weakly-supervised model) to capture hidden states of a user from his tweets and aggregate states in a geographical region for better estimation of trends. We show that our approaches help fill the gap between phenomenological methods for disease surveillance and epidemiological models. We validate our approaches by modeling the Flu using Twitter in multiple countries of South America. We demonstrate that our models can consistently outperform plain vocabulary assessment in Flu case-count predictions, and at the same time get better Flu-peak predictions than competitors. We also show that our fine-grained modeling can reconcile some contrasting behaviors between epidemiological and social models.

URBAN-NET: A network-based infrastructure monitoring and analysis system for emergency management and public safety

Critical Infrastructures (CIs) such as energy, water, and transportation are complex networks that are crucial for sustaining day-to-day commodity flows vital to national security, economic stability, and public safety. The nature of these CIs is such that failures caused by an extreme weather event or a man-made incident can trigger widespread cascading failures, sending ripple effects at regional or even national scales. To minimize such effects, it is critical for emergency responders to identify existing or potential vulnerabilities within CIs during such stressor events in a systematic and quantifiable manner and take appropriate mitigating actions. We present here a novel critical infrastructure monitoring and analysis system named URBAN-NET. The system includes a software stack and tools for monitoring CIs, pre-processing data, interconnecting multiple CI datasets as a heterogeneous network, identifying vulnerabilities through graph-based topological analysis, and predicting consequences based on “what-if” simulations along with visualization. As a proof-of-concept, we present several case studies to show the capabilities of our system. We also discuss remaining challenges and future work.

HotSpots: Failure Cascades on Heterogeneous Critical Infrastructure Networks

Critical Infrastructure Systems such as transportation, water and power grid systems are vital to our national security, economy, and public safety. Recent events, like the 2012 hurricane Sandy, show how the interdependencies among different CI networks lead to catastrophic failures among the whole system. Hence, analyzing these CI networks, and modeling failure cascades on them becomes a very important problem. However, traditional models either do not take multiple CIs or the dynamics of the system into account, or model it simplistically. In this paper, we study this problem using a heterogeneous network viewpoint. We first construct heterogeneous CI networks with multiple components using national-level datasets. Then we study novel failure maximization problems on these networks, to compute critical nodes in such systems. We then provide HotSpots, a scalable and effective algorithm for these problems, based on careful transformations. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on real CIS data from multiple US states, and show that our method HotSpots outperforms non-trivial baselines, gives meaningful results and that our approach gives immediate benefits in providing situational-awareness during large-scale failures.

Automatic Segmentation of Dynamic Network Sequences with Node Labels

Given a sequence of snapshots of flu propagating over a population network, can we find a segmentation when the patterns of the disease spread change, possibly due to interventions? In this paper, we study the problem of segmenting graph sequences with labeled nodes. Memes on the Twitter network, diseases over a contact network, movie-cascades over a social network, etc. are all graph sequences with labeled nodes. Most related work on this subject is on plain graphs and hence ignores the label dynamics. Others require fix parameters or feature engineering. We propose SnapNETS, to automatically find segmentations of such graph sequences, with different characteristics of nodes of each label in adjacent segments. It satisfies all the desired properties (being parameter free, comprehensive and scalable) by leveraging a principled, multi-level, flexible framework which maps the problem to a path optimization problem over a weighted DAG. Also, we develop the parallel framework of SnapNETS which speeds up its running time. Finally, we propose an extension of SnapNETS to handle the dynamic graph structures and use it to detect anomalies (and events) in network sequences. Extensive experiments on several diverse real datasets show that it finds cut points matching ground-truth or meaningful external signals and detects anomalies outperforming non-trivial baselines. We also show that the segmentations are easily interpretable, and that SnapNETS scales near-linearly with the size of the input. Finally, we show how to use SnapNETS to detect anomaly in a sequence of dynamic networks.

Segmenting Sequences of Node-Labeled Graphs

Detection of the changes in pattern of disease spread over a population network, Meme-tracking and opinion spread on the Twitter network and product-rating-cascade over a social network are a few among the many embodiments of graph sequence segmentation problem with labeled nodes. Most of the previous approaches to network sequence segmentation are on plain graphs without considerations for the dynamics of propagation process. These approaches either fix observation scales or extract a long list of expensive features. In this paper, we propose SNAPNETS a parameter free, and comprehensive algorithm, to find segmentation of networks sequences with node labels such that adjacent segments are different in characteristics of nodes of each label. Our method leverages a principled, multi-level, flexible framework which maps the original problem to a path optimization problem over a weighted DAG. Extensive experiments on several diverse real datasets show that our method finds cut points matching ground-truth or meaningful external signals outperforming non-trivial baselines.