Lila Kazemian

Desistance From Crime: Theoretical, Empirical, Methodological, and Policy Considerations

In recent years, the growing literature on the topic of desistance from crime and deviant behavior has generated a large body of knowledge on this dimension of the criminal career. Despite these efforts, it has been suggested that our understanding of the processes underlying desistance remains limited. The objective of the current article is to offer a critical assessment of past desistance research and to highlight some unresolved issues in this area. Theoretical, empirical, methodological, and policy issues are discussed.

Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17–18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17–18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

Exploring Residual Career Length and Residual Number of Offenses for Two Generations of Repeat Offenders

Very few studies have explored residual career length (RCL) and residual number of offenses (RNO), that is, the remaining time and number of offenses in criminal careers. This study uses conviction data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development to investigate RCL and RNO, for a sample of British males and their fathers. The sons were followed up to age 40 and the fathers up to age 70. Distributions of RCL and RNO according to six different criteria are presented (age on offense, conviction number, time since the last conviction, age of onset, offense type, and number of co-offenders). There was a general decline in RCL and RNO with age. Although RCL declined steadily with each successive conviction for both sons and fathers, RNO did not decline with conviction number for fathers. Over and above age on conviction, age of onset predicted RCL and RNO for sons, but less so for fathers. The type of offense and the number of co-offenders did not predict RCL or RNO. Risk scores showed that the predictive power of these variables for RCL and RNO was statistically significant but not very high. This finding highlights the difficulties associated with predictions of criminal career outcomes based on information available in official records, which is the main source of information available to decision-makers in the criminal justice system.

Differential Cost Avoidance and Successful Criminal Careers Random or Rational

Using a sample of adjudicated French Canadian males from the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study, this article investigates individual and social characteristics associated with differential cost avoidance. The main objective of this study is to determine whether such traits are randomly distributed across differential degrees of cost avoidance or whether they reflect some degree of rationality. Differential cost avoidance is a composite measure that includes the ratio of self-reported career length to officially recorded career length, the ratio of self-reported offending gravity to officially recorded gravity, and the ratio of time “free” to periods of incarceration. Findings reveal that it is particularly difficult to predict differential cost avoidance at early ages. The main predictors of the residual degree of differential cost avoidance in the early 30s include substance use (especially drugs), the accumulation of debts, and the use of violence in the perpetration of crime. Implications for desistance research are discussed.

Exploring Patterns of Perpetration of Crime Across the Life Course Offense and Offender-Based Viewpoints

This study explores the characteristics of the perpetration of crime over a 15-year follow-up period for a sample of adjudicated French Canadian males. Two patterns of perpetration of crime were identified between adolescence and adulthood. The organized pattern is mainly characterized by a predominance of utilitarian motives, a considerable level of planning, and an increased use of instruments. The disorganized pattern of perpetration of crime is motivated by hedonism and thrill seeking, displays little organization, and is characterized by a greater propensity to drug and alcohol use. Pathways were identified to determine how offenders combined these patterns between adolescence and midadulthood. All pathways showed signs of disorganization with age. These results suggest that patterns of perpetration of crime are more dependent on situational components and criminal opportunities, which are both more likely to vary across time, rather than on individual predispositions. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.

Imperative for Inclusion of Long Termers and Lifers in Research and Policy

Research Summary Although numerous studies have highlighted the negative consequences of mass incarceration, life-course and criminal career research has largely failed to document psychological, social, and behavioral changes that occur during periods of incarceration. This oversight is particularly noteworthy in the case of individuals serving long sentences, as they spend a significant portion of the life course behind bars. The policies and programs targeting prisoners are seldom tailored to long termers and lifers, and we know little about effective interventions, or even how to measure effectiveness, for this population. By drawing on the relevant empirical research, this article underlines the importance of reorienting some research efforts and policy priorities toward individuals serving life or otherwise long prison sentences. Policy Implications During the last 20 years, the prevalence of life sentences has increased substantially in the United States. We argue that there are various benefits to developing policies that consider the challenges and issues affecting long termers and lifers. In addition to the ethical and human rights concerns associated with the treatment of this population, there are several pragmatic justifications for this argument. Long termers and lifers spend a substantial number of years in prison, but most are eventually released. These individuals can play a key role in shaping the prison community and potentially could contribute to the development of a healthier prison climate. Investment in the well-being of individuals serving long sentences may also have diffused benefits that can extend to their families and communities. It would be advantageous for correctional authorities and policy makers to consider the potentially pivotal role of long termers and lifers in efforts to mitigate the negative consequences of incarceration.

19 Desistance from Crime and Antisocial Behavior

There have been impressive developments in desistance research over the past two decades, and the body of knowledge in this area of research has grown significantly. In more recent years, due to the increasing numbers of entries and releases to/from prison, the topic of desistance from crime has also piqued the interest of policy-makers. This chapter offers an overview of advances in desistance research. It discusses some of the methodological challenges associated with this area of research, and provides a summary of the key findings in classic and more recent studies. Future research needs, as well as the contributions of Marc Le Blanc to this field of study, are also highlighted.

DNA Retention Policies: The Potential Contribution of Criminal Career Research

The S & Marper judgment of the European Court of Human Rights held that the DNA samples of individuals arrested but subsequently cleared should be discarded from the national DNA database. Though the authors are sympathetic to the privacy concerns associated with DNA retention policies, the present paper contends that the concepts and methods of criminal career research should be brought to bear on the retention issue. A worked example showing how this might be carried out for convicted offenders is provided using data from the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, a prospective longitudinal follow-up of 411 working-class London males. The analyses illustrate the potential for crime detection after hypothetical years of DNA retention, in relation to age of onset and offence type. Findings suggest that the selective deletion of the DNA profiles of younger offenders may be particularly detrimental for subsequent detection rates, and that the seriousness of the offence at first contact may not be an accurate criterion in the decision to delete or retain DNA information. The study also highlights some of the advantages and problems associated with DNA retention policies.

1 Introduction: Understanding Criminal and Antisocial Behavior Within a Developmental and Multidisciplinary Perspective

This introduction chapter briefly discusses key definitional issues related to criminal and antisocial behavior, highlights the importance of the developmental perspective, and discusses the multidisciplinary character of developmental criminology. The main practical applications of developmental research are also outlined. Finally, this book also represents a Festschrift underlining the scholarly contributions of Professor Marc Le Blanc, a French-Canadian criminologist who is recognized for having conducted innovative research in developmental criminology and who has made important theoretical, empirical, and applied contributions to the field. The last section of this chapter briefly summarizes his contributions to developmental criminology.

Reliability and validity of cross-national homicide data: A comparison of UN and WHO data

ABSTRACT Data reliability and validity are methodological concerns in cross-national analyses of crime, but there is little agreement on which source of data provides the most reliable estimates. Moreover, few studies have examined the potential threat to validity posed by unclassified deaths. The current study aims to (1) assess the reliability of cross-national homicide data from the United Nations (UN) and the World Health Organization (WHO); and (2) investigate the impact of unclassified deaths on the validity of WHO data. Findings indicate that UN and WHO homicide rates (n=56) differ in magnitude, but produce similar outcomes. The UN data produce more robust results and statistical models with less error. The WHO data are more stable and reliable over time, and better suited for longitudinal analyses. Analyses drawing on WHO data should not disregard unclassified deaths because their inclusion provides a more accurate estimate of the true number of homicides.