Lilia Cavallari

Firms' entry, monetary policy and the international business cycle

This paper proposes a two-country monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the comovement puzzles in international business cycle models. It shows that business formation can generate fluctuations in output, employment, investment and trade flows close to those in the data while at the same time providing positive international comovements. Simulations show that the presence of imported investment goods is essential for replicating these facts.

Nominal and Real Volatility as Determinants of FDI

This article examines the role of country-specific sources of output and interest rate or exchange rate volatility in driving Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) activities. Building on a dataset with bilateral FDI flows among 24 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies over the period 1985–2007, we find that nominal and real volatility strongly deter foreign investments. Output and exchange rate volatility matter in particular for the decision whether to invest in a foreign country in the first place. Interest rate volatility mainly influences the amount of foreign investments.

Inflation and Openness with Non-Atomistic Wage-Setters

This paper analyses the impact of trade openness on inflation in a strategic framework characterised by monopolistic production in the domestic sector and unionised labour markets. By stressing the interplay between internal and external sources of economic distortion, we show that the economys inflationary bias reduces up to a critical level of trade openness. Beyond this threshold, wage setters may be induced to behave more aggressively in open economies, leading to higher equilibrium inflation. Based on a regression analysis that investigates the combined effect of labour market institutions and openness on inflation across nineteen OECD economies, we show that inflation is negatively related to openness when wage bargaining is decentralised, while there is virtually no link between openness and inflation at higher levels of wage centralisation. Copyright 2001 by Scottish Economic Society.

Shadow rates and multiple equilibria in the theory of currency crises

Abstract This note generalizes to second generation models of currency crises the arbitrage-based approach first applied by Flood and Garber to first generation models. Deriving policy-switching rules based on the ‘shadow exchange rate’ facilitates the comparative analysis of the literature. Using the ‘shadow rate’, we provide and discuss an example of a common mechanism generating multiple equilibria in both first and second generation models.

Current account and exchange rate dynamics

In the theoretical part of the paper, we analyze the positive and normative effects of a surprise monetary expansion in a small open economy characterized by imperfect competition and short-run price rigidity in the domestic sector. The temporary output boom fostered by the monetary expansion is shown to come at the cost of a permanent squeeze of the domestic sector. In general this affects welfare ambigously, since the welfare gain from the monetary expansion reduces as net foreign assets become smaller and eventually turns negative if the economy accumulates too large a debt towards the rest of the world. The empirical part of the paper provides evidence in favour of a crucial role of monetary shocks in current account fluctuations. This holds especially for the more open economies in the G7, namely the European countries and Canada.

Macroeconomic performance and wage bargaining in a monetary union

Building on a micro-founded model of a two-region monetary union, this paperanalyses the macroeconomic impact of institutional reforms in labour marketsand central banking that may occur as a result of monetary unification. Thepaper shows that monopoly distortions in the labour market are a key factorin evaluating the effects of central banks conservativeness and wagecentralisation on inflation and unemployment. Wage restraint is favoured ina highly decentralised wage bargaining setup as well as under a liberalcentral bank, provided competition is high in the labour market.

Modelling Entry Costs: Does it Matter for Business Cycle Transmission?

This paper studies the business cycle implications of entry costs in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with firm entry and nominal rigidity. Simulations show that my baseline model matches the dynamics observed in the data fairly well. Remarkably, it overcomes the well-known di¢ culties of business cycle models in reproducing the persistence, smoothness and cyclicality of macroeconomic aggregates. I stress that capital entry costs are essential for these results.

Strategic Wage Setting in a Monetary Union

Building on a micro-founded model of a two-region monetary union, this paper analyses the macroeconomic impact of institutional reforms in labour markets and central banking that may occur as a result of monetary unification. The paper shows that monopoly distortions in the labour market are a key factor in evaluating the effects of central bank’s conservativeness and wage centralisation on inflation and unemployment. Wage restraint is favoured in a highly decentralised wage bargaining setup as well as under a liberal central bank, provided competition is high in the labour market.

Trade Margins and Exchange Rate Regimes: New Evidence from a Panel VARX Model

This paper studies the dynamics of output and export margins in the aftermath of external shocks in fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. Using a panel VARX model, it traces the mean responses of output, terms of trade, extensive and intensive margins to real and nominal shocks in 22 developed economies over the period 1988-2011. It finds remarkable differences in the transmission of shocks depending on the exchange rate regime. In the sample of peggers, trade switches from previously traded goods towards trade of new products and previously non-traded goods in response to external shocks. This in turn exacerbates output fluctuations. Overall, our findings provide novel evidence in support of the stabilization advantages of flexible exchange rates based on their ability to smooth extensive margins. These findings are consistent with the predictions of theoretical models with firm entry.

Demand, Markups and the Business Cycle. Bayesian Estimation and Quantitative Analysis in Closed and Open Economies

We generalize the demand side of a Real Business Cycle model introducing non-homothetic preferences over differentiated final goods. Under monopolistic competition this generates variable markups that depend on the level of consumption. We estimate a flexible preference specification through Bayesian methods and obtain countercyclical markups. The associated closed-economy model magnifies the propagation of shocks (compared to perfect competition or fixed markups) through additional substitution effects on labor supply and consumption. In an open-economy framework, it also generates positive comovements of output, labor and investment and reduces consumption correlation between countries: in particular, a positive shock in the Home country reduces its markups and improves its terms of trade, which promotes consumption in the Home country but also production in the Foreign country to exploit the increased profitability of exports.