Lilian Pintea

Devastating Decline of Forest Elephants in Central Africa

African forest elephants– taxonomically and functionally unique–are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002–2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.

Sport hunting, predator control and conservation of large carnivores

Sport hunting has provided important economic incentives for conserving large predators since the early 1970s, but wildlife managers also face substantial pressure to reduce depredation. Sport hunting is an inherently risky strategy for controlling predators as carnivore populations are difficult to monitor and some species show a propensity for infanticide that is exacerbated by removing adult males. Simulation models predict population declines from even moderate levels of hunting in infanticidal species, and harvest data suggest that African countries and U.S. states with the highest intensity of sport hunting have shown the steepest population declines in African lions and cougars over the past 25 yrs. Similar effects in African leopards may have been masked by mesopredator release owing to declines in sympatric lion populations, whereas there is no evidence of overhunting in non-infanticidal populations of American black bears. Effective conservation of these animals will require new harvest strategies and improved monitoring to counter demands for predator control by livestock producers and local communities.

Impact of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection on Chimpanzee Population Dynamics

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002–2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of −6.5% to −7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002–2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

High Prevalence of Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in a Community of Savanna Chimpanzees

ABSTRACT Simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) has a significant negative impact on the health, reproduction, and life span of chimpanzees, yet the prevalence and distribution of this virus in wild-living populations are still only poorly understood. Here, we show that savanna chimpanzees, who live in ecologically marginal habitats at 10- to 50-fold lower population densities than forest chimpanzees, can be infected with SIVcpz at high prevalence rates. Fecal samples were collected from nonhabituated eastern chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) in the Issa Valley (n = 375) and Shangwa River (n = 6) areas of the Masito-Ugalla region in western Tanzania, genotyped to determine the number of sampled individuals, and tested for SIVcpz-specific antibodies and nucleic acids. None of 5 Shangwa River apes tested positive for SIVcpz; however, 21 of 67 Issa Valley chimpanzees were SIVcpz infected, indicating a prevalence rate of 31% (95% confidence interval, 21% to 44%). Two individuals became infected during the 14-month observation period, documenting continuing virus spread in this community. To characterize the newly identified SIVcpz strains, partial and full-length viral sequences were amplified from fecal RNA of 10 infected chimpanzees. Phylogenetic analyses showed that the Ugalla viruses formed a monophyletic lineage most closely related to viruses endemic in Gombe National Park, also located in Tanzania, indicating a connection between these now separated communities at some time in the past. These findings document that SIVcpz is more widespread in Tanzania than previously thought and that even very low-density chimpanzee populations can be infected with SIVcpz at high prevalence rates. Determining whether savanna chimpanzees, who face much more extreme environmental conditions than forest chimpanzees, are more susceptible to SIVcpz-associated morbidity and mortality will have important scientific and conservation implications.

An ecoregion-based approach to protecting half the terrestrial realm

Abstract We assess progress toward the protection of 50% of the terrestrial biosphere to address the species-extinction crisis and conserve a global ecological heritage for future generations. Using a map of Earths 846 terrestrial ecoregions, we show that 98 ecoregions (12%) exceed Half Protected; 313 ecoregions (37%) fall short of Half Protected but have sufficient unaltered habitat remaining to reach the target; and 207 ecoregions (24%) are in peril, where an average of only 4% of natural habitat remains. We propose a Global Deal for Nature—a companion to the Paris Climate Deal—to promote increased habitat protection and restoration, national- and ecoregion-scale conservation strategies, and the empowerment of indigenous peoples to protect their sovereign lands. The goal of such an accord would be to protect half the terrestrial realm by 2050 to halt the extinction crisis while sustaining human livelihoods.

Global Positioning System Data-Loggers: A Tool to Quantify Fine-Scale Movement of Domestic Animals to Evaluate Potential for Zoonotic Transmission to an Endangered Wildlife Population

Domesticated animals are an important source of pathogens to endangered wildlife populations, especially when anthropogenic activities increase their overlap with humans and wildlife. Recent work in Tanzania reports the introduction of Cryptosporidium into wild chimpanzee populations and the increased risk of ape mortality associated with SIVcpz-Cryptosporidium co-infection. Here we describe the application of novel GPS technology to track the mobility of domesticated animals (27 goats, 2 sheep and 8 dogs) with the goal of identifying potential routes for Cryptosporidium introduction into Gombe National Park. Only goats (5/27) and sheep (2/2) were positive for Cryptosporidium. Analysis of GPS tracks indicated that a crop field frequented by both chimpanzees and domesticated animals was a potential hotspot for Cryptosporidium transmission. This study demonstrates the applicability of GPS data-loggers in studies of fine-scale mobility of animals and suggests that domesticated animal–wildlife overlap should be considered beyond protected boundaries for long-term conservation strategies.

The malagarasi river does not form an absolute barrier to chimpanzee movement in Western Tanzania.

The Malagarasi River has long been thought to be a barrier to chimpanzee movements in western Tanzania. This potential geographic boundary could affect chimpanzee ranging behavior, population connectivity and pathogen transmission, and thus has implications for conservation strategies and government policy. Indeed, based on mitochondrial DNA sequence comparisons it was recently argued that chimpanzees from communities to the north and to the south of the Malagarasi are surprisingly distantly related, suggesting that the river prevents gene flow. To investigate this, we conducted a survey along the Malagarasi River. We found a ford comprised of rocks that researchers could cross on foot. On a trail leading to this ford, we collected 13 fresh fecal samples containing chimpanzee DNA, two of which tested positive for SIVcpz. We also found chimpanzee feces within the riverbed. Taken together, this evidence suggests that the Malagarasi River is not an absolute barrier to chimpanzee movements and communities from the areas to the north and south should be considered a single population. These results have important consequences for our understanding of gene flow, disease dynamics and conservation management.

Landsat ETM+ and SRTM Data Provide Near Real-Time Monitoring of Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) Habitats in Africa

All four chimpanzee sub-species populations are declining due to multiple factors including human-caused habitat loss. Effective conservation efforts are therefore needed to ensure their long-term survival. Habitat suitability models serve as useful tools for conservation planning by depicting relative environmental suitability in geographic space over time. Previous studies mapping chimpanzee habitat suitability have been limited to small regions or coarse spatial and temporal resolutions. Here, we used Random Forests regression to downscale a coarse resolution habitat suitability calibration dataset to estimate habitat suitability over the entire chimpanzee range at 30-m resolution. Our model predicted habitat suitability well with an r2 of 0.82 (±0.002) based on 50-fold cross validation where 75% of the data was used for model calibration and 25% for model testing; however, there was considerable variation in the predictive capability among the four sub-species modeled individually. We tested the influence of several variables derived from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) that included metrics of forest canopy and structure for four three-year time periods between 2000 and 2012. Elevation, Landsat ETM+ band 5 and Landsat derived canopy cover were the strongest predictors; highly suitable areas were associated with dense tree canopy cover for all but the Nigeria-Cameroon and Central Chimpanzee sub-species. Because the models were sensitive to such temporally based predictors, our results are the first to highlight the value of integrating continuously updated variables derived from satellite remote sensing into temporally dynamic habitat suitability models to support near real-time monitoring of habitat status and decision support systems.

Population status of chimpanzees in the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem, Tanzania

More than 75 percent of Tanzanias chimpanzees live at low densities on land outside national parks. Chimpanzees are one of the key conservation targets in the region and long‐term monitoring of these populations is essential for assessing the overall status of ecosystem health and the success of implemented conservation strategies. We aimed to assess change in chimpanzee density within the Masito‐Ugalla Ecosystem (MUE) by comparing results of re‐walking the same line transects in 2007 and 2014. We further used published remote sensing data derived from Landsat satellites to assess forest cover change within a 5 km buffer of these transects over that same period. We detected no statistically significant decline in chimpanzee density across the surveyed areas of MUE between 2007 and 2014, although the overall mean density of chimpanzees declined from 0.09 individuals/km2 in 2007 to 0.05 individuals/km2 in 2014. Whether this change is biologically meaningful cannot be determined due to small sample sizes and large, entirely overlapping error margins. It is therefore possible that the MUE chimpanzee population has been stable over this period and indeed in some areas (Issa Valley, Mkanga, Kamkulu) even showed an increase in chimpanzee density. Variation in chimpanzee habitat preference for ranging or nesting could explain variation in density at some of the survey sites between 2007 and 2014. We also found a relationship between increasing habitat loss and lower mean chimpanzee density. Future surveys will need to ensure a larger sample size, broader geographic effort, and random survey design, to more precisely determine trends in MUE chimpanzee density and population size over time. Am. J. Primatol. 77:1027–1035, 2015.

Securing a future for chimpanzees

Fifty years after setting foot in Gombe, Jane Goodall calls for urgent action to save our closest living relatives from extinction in the wild. Conservationists and local people must collaborate, she and Lilian Pintea conclude.