Lilyan E. Fulginiti

LDC agriculture: Nonparametric Malmquist productivity indexes

Abstract This paper examines changes in agricultural productivity in 18 developing countries over the period 1961–1985. We use the nonparametric, output-based Malmquist index to examine whether the results from such an approach confirm results from other methods that have indicated declining agricultural productivity in less developed countries (LDCs). The results confirm previous findings, indicating that at least half of these countries have experienced productivity declines in agriculture. We also found that those countries that tax agriculture most heavily had the most negative rates of productivity change.

Prices and Productivity in Agriculture

Developing countries often tax agriculture heavily, a practice that might affect the productivity as well as the quantity of resources allocated to agriculture. A variable-coefficient cross-country agricultural production function is estimated, with past price expectations among the determinants of the production coefficients. Productivitys responsiveness to the expectations implies that, had these developing economies eliminated price interventions, agricultural productivity would have increased by and average of 25 percent.

Agricultural productivity in developing countries

This paper examines changes in agricultural productivity in 18 developing countries over the period 1961-1985. We use a nonparametric, output-based Malmquist index and a parametric variable coefficients Cobb-Douglas production function to examine, whether our estimates confirm results from other studies that have indicated declining agricultural productivity in LDCs. The results confirm previous findings, indicating that at least half of these countries have experienced productivity declines in agriculture.

THE THEORY AND MEASUREMENT OF PRODUCER RESPONSE UNDER QUOTAS

Tobin and Houthakkers (1950-51) work on consumer behavior under quantity rationing has been extended by many authors, especially through the use of duality theory. This paper uses duality theory to extend the work on demand theory under rationing to the case of producer behavior under quotas. These results permit estimation of otherwise unobservable market supply and demand structures. The structure of the farm economy operating under a tobacco quota system is estimated, and the theory is utilized to infer that the supply elasticity of tobacco would be about 7.0 if the quotas were removed. Estimates such as this are not normally attainable without the theory outlined here, even though they are essential for the evaluation of policy changes.

Argentine Agricultural Policy in a Multiple-Input, Multiple-Output Framework

This study shows that government interventions in Argentine agriculture substantially reduced the growth rate of output 1940-80. A multiple product, multiple input, aggregate translog profit function is estimated. Supply elasticity estimates range from zero for linseed to 1.6 for sorghum. Estimates of intervention wedges together with the estimated structure imply that export taxes, import restrictions, and domestic taxes each in isolation could have reduced aggregate output by as much as 25%-30%. These and other interventions increased beef as a share of outputs and increased the cost shares of purchased inputs and labor at the expense of capital inputs.

Estimating Griliches' k-shifts.

Griliches’ k-shift, a crucial parameter in the welfare evaluation of technological change, is shown to be equal to the radial rate of technological change plus a vector of commodity bias parameters obtained from the distance function. The analysis permits decomposition of sectoral productivity growth into productivity growth by commodity. The k-shifts estimated for wheat, corn, soybeans, and beef in U.S. agriculture indicate a decrease in the marginal cost of production of corn, soybeans, and wheat during the 1950-1993 years.

Productivity Measurement in the Presence of “Poorly Priced” Goods

The objective of this paper is to present Hickssian general equilibrium approaches to productivity measurement in the presence of market failure.

Health and Growth: Causality through Education

Purpose - The paper aims to theoretically and empirically investigate the impact on human capital investment decisions and income growth of lowered life expectancy as a result of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Design/methodology/approach - The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their lives, namely, young, adult, and old. The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stages, and by allowing for stochastic technological advances. The empirical investigation focuses on the effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and on the role of health in educational investments and growth. Potential endogeneity is addressed by using various strategies, such as controlling for country-specific time-invariant unobservables and by using the male-circumcision rate as an instrumental variable for HIV/AIDS prevalence. Findings - The paper shows theoretically that an increased probability of premature death leads to less investment in human capital, and consequently slower growth. Empirically, the paper finds that HIV/AIDS has resulted in a substantial decline in life expectancy in African countries and these falling life expectancies are indeed associated with lower educational attainment and slower economic growth world wide. Originality/value - The theoretical and empirical findings reveal a causal link flowing from health to growth, which has been largely overlooked by the existing literature. The main implication is that health investments that decrease the incidence of diseases like HIV/AIDS resulting in increases in life expectancy through their complementarity with human capital investments lead to long run growth.

Agricultural Productivity in China: National and Regional Growth Patterns, 1993-2005

Agricultural productivity growth in Chinese provinces is examined for the 1994-2005 period. It is studied using a data set seldom used and with two alternative approaches. Results show that productivity growth rates have been high, about 4 percent, on average, during the period. The East outperformed the Central region, which in turn outperformed the West. Growth rates show a slight slowdown during the 1990s, an increase in the early 2000’s, and a slowdown in 2004 and 2005. While the Malmquist estimates show convergence between the East and the West, the stochastic frontier estimates do not show the same pattern.

An Allais Measure of Production Sector Waste due to Quotas

Agricultural production quotas are policy instruments that many countries have adopted as a means of transferring income from consumers to producers. Here the partial equilibrium approach of Allais and Diewert is adapted to measure the efficiency loss in the production sector due to quotas. Published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77(November 1995):865-74. 1995.