Lincoln A. Mitchell

Putin’s Diminishing Options

With the March 4th election rapidly approaching in Russia, it is becoming increasingly clear that Prime Minister, and presidential candidate, Vladimir Putin has backed himself into a corner from which it will be difficult to extricate himself. Moreover, the possibility of using violence to crackdown on demonstrators, or to keep his regime in power, will likely grow over the next months, particularly after the election.

Koran Burning and the U.S. Role in Afghanistan

The latest round of violence in Afghanistan demonstrates the need to continue to withdraw from Afghanistan as quickly as possible. The immediate cause of this upsurge in violence has been the burning of Korans by American troops. President Obama, in a fit of decency, apologized for American actions that could be generously described as insensitive. Obama‟s apology was met by attacks from, among others, Newt Gingrich, arguing essentially that the U.S. should never have to apologize for anything. This argument is axiomatically wrong, but it is also very disturbing. Being truly patriotic means loving and caring about your country enough that when those ideals are violated you want your country to act accordingly. Believing you never need to apologize is territory best left to megalomaniacs and bullies, qualities we do not need in an American president.

Russia’s Non-Competitive Election

The Russian election occurred on Sunday with results that were consistent with what most people expected. Vladimir Putin won the election handily among widespread reports of election fraud, inflated vote totals from the northern Caucasus region of Russia, and general electoral misconduct. Putin, according to official reports, won roughly 63% of the vote, which was a higher proportion of the vote than some had anticipated, but his huge margin of victory, a full 45 points more than second place finisher Gennady Zyuganov, was less of a surprise.

The Georgian Government's Goldilocks Problem

Since the Rose Revolution, one of the obstacles to further democratic development in Georgia has been the dominance of political life in that country by one political force, President Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM). The UNM arose shortly after the Rose Revolution from a merger between the National Movement, led by Saakashvili, and the United Democrats, led by the late Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania and then Chair of Parliament, and currently opposition politician, Nino Burjanadze. Since that time, the UNM has won every election in Georgia and controls every elected legislature and executive position in the country.

The Russian and U.S. Presidential Elections

On March 4th, Russians will go to the polls to “elect” their next president. As with most elections in the former Soviet Union, other than the Baltic countries, the most interesting questions are not concerned with who will win. It is all but certain that Russia’s current prime minister and erstwhile president, Vladimir Putin will win that election. The more compelling question raised by the Russian presidential election is what will happen after the votes are cast. Fraud in the December 2011 parliamentary election led to major demonstrations in Moscow representing the first cracks in the carefully constructed facade of invincibility which Putin had so arduously worked to create during the last decade.

Intervention and Non-Intervention in Syria

As the brutal suppression of opponents of Bashar al-Assad by supporters of his regime in Syria continues, the U.S. and other western powers are faced, yet again, with the question of whether or not to intervene in a violent North African conflict that, absent western intervention, could lead to even more violent deaths and suppression. The similarities between the dilemma facing the U.S. in Syria in 2012 and the one it faced roughly a year ago in Libya is, while not the same, quite similar, at least in some respects.

Revisiting the Assumptions Behind American Foreign Policy

U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War, and in many regards since end of World War II has rested on several assumptions not about the nature of the world or of the threats facing the U.S., but about the U.S. and America’s perception of itself. Several key components of American foreign policy in its internationalist form including democracy promotion, foreign assistance generally, the unique role the U.S. seeks to play in global security issues, the U.S. military presence in almost every corner of the world, and the emphasis on human rights all are based upon the U.S. viewing itself as both able to make an impact and affluent enough to afford trying.

Revolution and Democracy in Egypt

The term revolution has been used by many people to describe the ongoing demonstrations in Egypt. Additionally, part of the narrative about these events is that the revolution will lead to democracy as most revolutions do. This narrative, however, should be viewed, at this time, as aspirational. It is obviously possible that we will see a revolution in Egypt from which democracy will grow, but it is very far from certain that this is what will happen there.

Romney Still Trying to Have It Both Ways on Foreign Policy

The speech itself did not so much lay out a coherent foreign policy vision for the future as much as it sought to secure Romney’s credentials as a critic of President Barack Obama and true believer in the infallibility of U.S. foreign policy and the U.S. military. Lines like “If you do not want America to be the strongest nation on Earth, I am not your president. You have that president today,” or “In an American Century, America has the strongest economy and the strongest military in the world. In an American Century, America leads the free world and the free world leads the entire world,” are either simply right-wing rhetoric, the former, or platitudes, the latter. Coming from Rick Perry or Michele Bachmann, these lines might be true representations of the depth of their thinking on foreign policy. Coming from Romney these remarks seem, at least to some degree, like true representations of what he thinks he needs to say to win the Republican nomination.

Sometimes an Election is Just an Election, Not a Step in Any Direction

The recent election in Kyrgyzstan presents somewhat of a Rorschach test to observers of political development in Central Asia and democracy generally. The election of Almaz Atanbaev as Kyrgyzstan’s president is another chapter in the country’s political evolution and, not insignificantly, the first peaceful of transfer of power since Kyrgyzstan was part of the Soviet Union. This election was probably the best in recent Kyrgyz history and perhaps the best ever in post-Soviet Central Asia. For these reasons, it is possible to view democracy as moving forward in Kyrgyzstan, which may perhaps have an effect on the region more broadly.