Linda J. Beaumont

Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions

The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The “Global 200” comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199–224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961–1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961–1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.

Phenological changes in the southern hemisphere.

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported.

Biodiversity Conservation: Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate change and extinction risk (reply).

Thomas et al. reply — We reconsider our estimates of climate-related extinction in the light of three questions raised by Thuiller et al., Buckley and Roughgarden and Harte et al.. We are able to confirm our original conclusion that climate change represents a major threat to terrestrial species.

Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on development and consumption rates of Octotoma championi and O. scabripennis feeding on Lantana camara

We carried out a factorial experiment to explore the effect of doubled CO2 concentration and a 3 °C temperature increase on the development of a complete generation of the beetles Octotoma championi Baly and O. scabripennis Guérin‐Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). These species are biological control agents of Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae), with a leaf‐mining larval phase and free‐living, leaf‐chewing adults.

The Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory

Advances in computing power and infrastructure, increases in the number and size of ecological and environmental datasets, and the number and type of data collection methods, are revolutionizing the field of Ecology. To integrate these advances, virtual laboratories offer a unique tool to facilitate, expedite, and accelerate research into the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. We introduce the uniquely cloud-based Biodiversity and Climate Change Virtual Laboratory (BCCVL), which provides access to numerous species distribution modelling tools; a large and growing collection of biological, climate, and other environmental datasets; and a variety of experiment types to conduct research into the impact of climate change on biodiversity.Users can upload and share datasets, potentially increasing collaboration, cross-fertilisation of ideas, and innovation among the user community. Feedback confirms that the BCCVLs goals of lowering the technical requirements for species distribution modelling, and reducing time spent on such research, are being met. BCCVL facilitates and expedites modelling of climate changes impact on biodiversity.BCCVL integrates numerous species distribution modelling tools and myriad datasets.BCCVL negates the need for advanced programming and modelling expertise.BCCVL allows for increases in productivity and complexity of experimental design.BCCVL facilitates the sharing of data promoting transparency in the research process.

MOLECULAR DETECTION OF ANTIBIOTIC-RESISTANCE DETERMINANTS IN ESCHERICHIA COLI ISOLATED FROM THE ENDANGERED AUSTRALIAN SEA LION (NEOPHOCA CINEREA)

Abstract Greater interaction between humans and wildlife populations poses significant risks of anthropogenic impact to natural ecosystems, especially in the marine environment. Understanding the spread of microorganisms at the marine interface is therefore important if we are to mitigate adverse effects on marine wildlife. We investigated the establishment of Escherichia coli in the endangered Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) by comparing fecal isolation from wild and captive sea lion populations. Fecal samples were collected from wild colonies March 2009–September 2010 and from captive individuals March 2011–May 2013. Using molecular screening, we assigned a phylotype to E. coli isolates and determined the presence of integrons, mobile genetic elements that capture gene cassettes conferring resistance to antimicrobial agents common in fecal coliforms. Group B2 was the most abundant phylotype in all E. coli isolates (n = 37), with groups A, B1, and D also identified. Integrons were not observed in E. coli (n = 21) isolated from wild sea lions, but were identified in E. coli from captive animals (n = 16), from which class I integrases were detected in eight isolates. Sequencing of gene cassette arrays identified genes conferring resistance to streptomycin-spectinomycin (aadA1) and trimethoprim (dfrA17, dfrB4). Class II integrases were not detected in the E. coli isolates. The frequent detection in captive sea lions of E. coli with resistance genes commonly identified in human clinical cases suggests that conditions experienced in captivity may contribute to establishment. Identification of antibiotic resistance in the microbiota of Australian sea lions provides crucial information for disease management. Our data will inform conservation management strategies and provide a mechanism to monitor microorganism dissemination to sensitive pinniped populations.

Giardia duodenalis and Cryptosporidium occurrence in Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) exposed to varied levels of human interaction

Graphical Abstract

Potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability for the Queensland fruit fly

Anthropogenic climate change is a major factor driving shifts in the distributions of pests and invasive species. The Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Qfly), is the most economically damaging insect pest of Australia’s horticultural industry, and its management is a key priority for plant protection and biosecurity. Identifying the extent to which climate change may alter the distribution of suitable habitat for Qfly is important for the development and continuation of effective monitoring programs, phytosanitary measures, and management strategies. We used Maxent, a species distribution model, to map suitable habitat for Qfly under current climate, and six climate scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Our results highlight that south-western Australia, northern regions of the Northern Territory, eastern Queensland, and much of south-eastern Australia are currently suitable for Qfly. This includes southern Victoria and eastern Tasmania, which are currently free of breeding populations. There is substantial agreement across future climate scenarios that most areas currently suitable will remain so until at least 2070. Our projections provide an initial estimate of the potential exposure of Australia’s horticultural industry to Qfly as climate changes, highlighting the need for long-term vigilance across southern Australia to prevent further range expansion of this species.

Identifying in situ climate refugia for plant species

Identification of refugia from climate change is increasingly considered important for biodiversity conservation, but the distribution of putative refugia may vary across alternative climate scenarios, impeding conservation decision-making. Based on 117 plant species representative of ecoregions within south-eastern Australia, we provide a case study identifying in situ refugia across a spectrum of plausible future climates. We define in situ refugia as areas that currently contain populations of the target species, and are projected to remain climatically suitable in the future. Refugia were identified across scenarios describing futures that are, relative to 1990–2009, warmer and wetter, warmer/drier, hotter/wetter, and hotter with little precipitation change. Despite substantial variation in the spatial extent and longevity of climate refugia across species, ecoregions and climate scenarios, clear patterns emerged. By 2070, refugia for species in 1) deserts and xeric shrublands; 2) mediterranean forests, woodlands and shrublands; and 3) temperate and tropical grasslands are likely to be least extensive under a hotter/ wetter future. Conversely, wetter conditions may lead to broader refugia for species in temperate forests. We identified areas of congruence where high richness refugia (refugia for  50% of representative species) were projected to occur irrespective of the climate scenario. These regions therefore appear robust to uncertainty about climate change, presenting clear targets for conservation attention. Our approach provides valuable information for decision-makers, enabling them to identify and visualise the spatial arrangement of refugia under contrasting scenarios of environmental change. This reveals management options in the context of climate uncertainty and facilitates informed prioritisation of conservation resources.

Influence of adaptive capacity on the outcome of climate change vulnerability assessment

Climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) has become a mainstay conservation decision support tool. CCVAs are recommended to incorporate three elements of vulnerability – exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity – yet, lack of data frequently leads to the latter being excluded. Further, weighted or unweighted scoring schemes, based on expert opinion, may be applied. Comparisons of these approaches are rare. In a CCVA for 17 Australian lizard species, we show that membership within three vulnerability categories (low, medium and high) generally remained similar regardless of the framework or scoring scheme. There was one exception however, where, under the warm/dry scenario for 2070, including adaptive capacity lead to five fewer species being classified as highly vulnerable. Two species, Eulamprus leuraensis and E. kosciuskoi, were consistently ranked the most vulnerable, primarily due to projected losses in climatically suitable habitat, narrow thermal tolerance and specialist habitat requirements. Our findings provide relevant information for prioritizing target species for conservation and choosing appropriate conservation actions. We conclude that for the species included in this study, the framework and scoring scheme used had little impact on the identification of the most vulnerable species. We caution, however, that this outcome may not apply to other taxa or regions.